Abstract
Child underreporting is often neglected in studies of fertility and sex ratio imbalance in China. To improve estimates of these measures, I use intercensal comparisons to identify a rise in underreporting, which followed the increased enforcement and penalization under the birth planning system in 1991. A new triangulation of evidence indicates that about 19% of children at ages 0–4 were unreported in the 2000 census, more than double that of the 1990 census. This evidence contradicts assumptions underlying the fertility estimates of most recent studies. Yet, the analysis also suggests that China’s fertility in the late 1990s (and perhaps beyond) was below officially adjusted levels. I then conduct a similar intercensal analysis of sex ratios of births and children, which are the world’s highest primarily because of prenatal sex selection. However, given excess underreporting of young daughters, especially pronounced just after 1990, estimated ratios are lower than reported ratios. Sex ratios in areas with a “1.5-child” policy are especially distorted because of excess daughter underreporting, as well as sex-linked stopping rules and other factors, although it is unclear whether such policies increase use of prenatal sex selection. China’s sex ratio at birth, once it is standardized by birth order, fell between 2000 and 2005 and showed a continuing excess in urban China, not rural China.
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Notes
The NPFPC has conducted several retrospective surveys on China’s fertility in recent years. Given its responsibilities to enforce birth regulations, respondents to NPFPC surveys may be particularly cautious: birth reporting is consistently less complete than in NBS annual surveys (Attane 2001; Guo et al. 2003; Zhang and Zhao 2006). Underreporting of births and children is also unusually high in China’s household registration system (Scharping 2007), which is maintained by the Department of Public Security. I do not analyze data from either of these organizations herein. In my view, any insights gained about China’s fertility from NPFPC surveys or the household registration system are often outweighed by the questionable inferences and comparisons drawn from them.
CBRs are converted to their TFR equivalents via a population projection program, which uses official age-specific fertility as well as some adjustments to the census count of 1990 (the base year of the projection) by age and sex (see also footnote 4). These factors affect the relationship between the TFR and the CBR. The projections also incorporate estimates of sex ratios at birth as well as age- and sex-specific mortality and net migration.
For general background on the technical aspects of the estimates and projections, as well as methods, data evaluation, and other topics, see (U.S. Census Bureau, International Data Base, 2009) http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/idb/estandproj.php. For more information about the basic methods, data, and sources used for each country, see the U.S. Census Bureau’s International Data Base (2009) at http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/idb/country.php.
The base population in 1990 used in these projections includes a variety of adjustments, including increases at ages 0–9 determined through comparisons with the 2000 census (Goodkind 2004; Retherford et al. 2005; Zhang and Cui 2003). Basic annual parameters of mortality and net migration used in projections from 1990 to 2000 appear in Goodkind (2004: appendix). Naturally, estimates of child underreporting (net coverage error) are accurate to the extent that underlying assumptions are accurate.
Instead of using official sample proportions to compare sample census counts against census counts, Cai (2008) raised the sample proportion by 8% in 1995 and 16% in 2005 (calculations derived from figures in Cai 2008: footnote 3). These large and differential changes were proposed as proper adjustment for varying completeness of enumeration by age in the sample surveys. The adjustments emerged from an exercise in which the author chose to focus on those born between 1940 and 1954 and compared the count of this birth cohort (as projected from those aged 35–49 in the 1990 census) with the sampled counts of the cohort in 1995 and 2005, with each sampled count raised by the official sampling proportion. In a replication of this analysis, I found that the (inflated) sample count of the cohort aged 40–54 in 1995 was 8% higher than implied by the 1990 census–based projection, and the (inflated) sample count of the cohort aged 50–64 in 2005 was 16% higher that implied by the 1990 census–based projection. (These match the percentages of the differential adjustments Cai applied to ages 5–14.) Because the census counts are common to each projection exercise, the adjusted survival curves on the bottom of Fig. 2, by definition, do not indicate very similar child underreporting rates between the censuses; instead, their overlap simply reflects quirks in adult age reporting between the 1995 and 2005 sample censuses.
This was a joint report published by the China Statistics Press, which issues most of the official materials of the NBS. Yet, the preface of the report acknowledged that its provincial fertility estimates (which contained no adjustments for child underreporting) were not official estimates. Moreover, the report was issued only in English, not Chinese. To avoid any mistaken impression that these were official estimates, East-West Center is listed as first author.
Note that figures appearing in China Statistical Yearbook may be modified over time, sometimes in tandem with census findings. For instance, following the 1990 census, the crude birth rates listed for the 1980s were raised. Conversely, following the 2000 census, crude birth rates listed for 1998 and 1999 (in the 2000 and 2001 Yearbooks) were reduced in the 2002 Yearbook.
Zhang and Zhao (2006) contended that NBS adjustments should have been based solely on births uncovered in post-enumeration surveys (PES), which implied only 6%–7% underreporting in 1993 and 1994 (Jia and Sai 1995). However, PES efforts in many countries may not fully capture hidden births (Whitford and Banda 2001), and birth planning policies in China provide special disincentives to report out-of-quota births (Scharping 2003).
That falling fertility should have reduced the proportion of out-of-quota births not reported in the 1990s is not at odds with the observed rise in child underreporting between the 1990 and 2000 censuses after the 1991 decree. For an exploratory model of these two opposing forces, see Goodkind (2008a).
One concern about the long form sample is that it is not nationally representative; for instance, migrant workers were difficult to locate in the 2000 census. When located, they were more likely to receive the short form. Another concern is the format of questions asked. The short-form question (H7) asked about sons and daughters born to each household in the year before the census. The long-form question (R26) asked respondents to link each son and daughter born to a particular mother currently alive and present in the household. Births to mothers who died or migrated away are thus not included in the long form. In addition, given China’s fertility restrictions, the long form’s focus on childbearing of particular mothers may have exacerbated both underreporting of births as well as excess underreporting of daughters.
For instance, the reported sex ratio at birth in the 2005 sample census (120.5) increased more in comparison with the 2000 census short-form sample (116.9) than the 2000 census long-form sample (119.9).
The “normal” sex ratio at birth and reasons for cross-cultural variation are subject to debate. The ratio typically varies from about 103 to 107 (Johannson and Nygren 1991). Vital statistics show that the sex ratio at birth among Chinese parents in the United States from 1940 to 2002 was 107.4 (Mathews and Hamilton 2005). Around 1980, sex ratios at birth in East Asia tended to vary from 106 to 107, as I will shortly show.
A comparison of sex ratios at birth in 1989 (from the 1990 census) to sex ratios of children reported at age 11 in the 2000 census suggests that the former were likely overstated by more than 5 per 100 in Zhejiang, Shandong, Henan, and Hebei (Goodkind and West 2005: Table 4).
This implies that the fishhook pattern by age results from overreporting of sex ratios at ages 1–3, rather than underreporting at age 0 as many have hypothesized (Qiao 2005; Cai and Lavely 2007). One finding that may have contributed to the earlier hypothesis involves a post-enumeration “cleanup” following a 1997 survey by the National Committee for Family Planning. (The report was unpublished and available only in Chinese; see Qiao and Suchindran [2003].). Births uncovered by the post-enumeration cleanup were even more masculine than those reported in the original survey. Some observers took this to imply that hidden births are more masculine than reported births, the result being that reported sex ratios at birth (age 0) are biased downward. However, the excess of males discovered among hidden births in the PES might reflect parents’ greater willingness to reveal an out-of-quota son than an out-of-quota daughter during the cleanup. Moreover, daughters lost to infanticide or out-adoption might not be recalled as births at all in the later cleanup.
Another potential explanation is that excess underreporting of daughters diminished over the interval. Also note that the 2000 census short form does not contain information on birth order, and as mentioned earlier, demographic measures differ between the short- and long-form results. Figure 5 shows comparisons between the two samples: the 2005 sample census and the 2000 census long form.
The typical sex ratio of infant mortality throughout the world ranges from about 1.2 to 1.4 (Hill and Upchurch 1995). The sex ratio of reported mortality among males and females at ages 1–4 in China remained unchanged at 0.99 between 2000 and 2005. Typical sex ratios at these ages range from 1.00 to 1.20 (Hill and Upchurch 1995).
The substitution hypothesis, as originally formulated, posits that prenatal sex selection may lead to a decline in postnatal discriminatory practices (Goodkind 1996a, 1999). Although South Korea showed possible evidence of such substitution, the dynamic in China has been additive, perhaps because of the role of the birth planning system in increasing discrimination of all kinds (Goodkind 1996a:118). A softer version of the hypothesis, however, has never been examined in China’s context; that is, if prenatal selection had not been available, postnatal discrimination against daughters may have increased even more than it did. Ideally, the substitution hypothesis should be examined with individual-level data, although few researchers have attempted to do so (for a rare exception, see Shepherd [2008]).
Other benchmarks for standardization can be chosen, but under any standard, the standardized excess of urban ratios above rural ratios will always equal 3.4. Standardization of sex ratios at birth in the 1990 census also reveal an excess in urban areas (not shown).
In Taiwan, a notable dip after 1991 was attributed to warnings by public health authorities that women who determined fetal sex by using chorionic villus sampling (CVS), a type of amniocentesis performed within the first six weeks of pregnancy, would be more likely to bear children with birth defects (Chang 1996).
However, Japan earlier displayed a long-term peak in its reported sex ratio at birth in the mid-1960s, which nearly coincided with the 1966 Year of the Fire Horse (an inauspicious year to have girl babies; see Goodkind 1991; Lee and Paik 2006). Whether the peak was related to the Fire Horse or to levels of fertility is unclear, as is the availability of any effective sex-testing technologies at that time.
In other Asian areas showing distortions in the sex ratio at birth, the time interval between first achieving replacement fertility and the year of the subsequent local peak in sex ratios at birth was 8–11 years in Taiwan, Singapore, and Japan; and 18 years in Hong Kong (Goodkind and West 2007). The longer gap in Hong Kong might be due to increased migration of Chinese from the mainland. Based on these patterns elsewhere in Asia, because China’s fertility first fell below replacement in 1991, one would expect a turnaround in sex ratios between 1999 and 2009.
Pande and Malhotra (2006) found that 87% of Indian parents want at least one daughter. Goodkind (1996b) found that 93% of Vietnamese parents identified a son and a daughter as their ideal if they had two children. For general issues regarding the wantedness of daughters in China, see Greenhalgh and Li (1995) and Johnson (2004).
In a few experimental localities, reported sex ratios in 1.5-child policy areas vastly exceeded those of adjacent areas with 2.0-child policies (Zeng 2007:230). In addition to aforementioned caveats about the causes and interpretation of such reported differentials, statistical confidence intervals around sex ratios are very wide. Even in a locality with 5,000 annual births, a 95% confidence interval would span 6 per 100 above and below an expected sex ratio of 106.
Fig. 4 implies that reported child sex ratios since the late 1980s were likely about 3 per 100 higher because of excess underreporting of daughters. Figure 7 implies that sex ratios may be further elevated by 3.7 per 100 in 1.5-child areas because of compliance with the stopping rule. Since just over one-half of China’s localities impose the 1.5-child rule (Gu et al. 2007), the national elevation attributable to this policy is likely almost 2 per 100. If these two factors were removed, China’s reported sex ratios might be reduced by as much as 5 per 100, implying a sex ratio plateau closer to that of South Korea in the early 1990s (Fig. 6).
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Acknowledgments
This article draws from the author’s work on China at the Census Bureau over the last decade. Several sections borrow from reports that were co-authored and developed in collaboration with Loraine West. Helpful comments on this and related reports over the years were provided by Peter Johnson, James Gibbs, Peter Way, and Frank Hobbs. Several demographic models used here carry over ideas developed by predecessors who covered China for the Census Bureau: John Aird and Judith Banister. Others who have facilitated this work include Andrea Miles, J. Gregory Robinson, John Long, Donna Dove, and Wan He. Editors and reviewers at Demography provided critical advice and support. This work is intended to inform interested parties of ongoing research and to encourage discussion of work in progress. Any views expressed are those of the author and not necessarily those of the U.S. Census Bureau.
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Goodkind, D. Child Underreporting, Fertility, and Sex Ratio Imbalance in China. Demography 48, 291–316 (2011). https://doi.org/10.1007/s13524-010-0007-y
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s13524-010-0007-y