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Implications for Future Survival of Delta Smelt from Four Climate Change Scenarios for the Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta, California

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Abstract

Changes in the position of the low salinity zone, a habitat suitability index, turbidity, and water temperature modeled from four 100-year scenarios of climate change were evaluated for possible effects on delta smelt Hypomesus transpacificus, which is endemic to the Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta. The persistence of delta smelt in much of its current habitat into the next century appears uncertain. By mid-century, the position of the low salinity zone in the fall and the habitat suitability index converged on values only observed during the worst droughts of the baseline period (1969–2000). Projected higher water temperatures would render waters historically inhabited by delta smelt near the confluence of the Sacramento and San Joaquin rivers largely uninhabitable. However, the scenarios of climate change are based on assumptions that require caution in the interpretation of the results. Projections like these provide managers with a useful tool for anticipating long-term challenges to managing fish populations and possibly adapting water management to ameliorate those challenges.

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Acknowledgments

We thank Michael Meador, Matthew Miller, and several anonymous reviewers for comments that enhanced the clarity and quality of the paper. Funding for this work was provided by the Computational Assessments of Scenarios of Change for the Delta Ecosystem (CASCaDE) project. CASCaDE is supported by a grant from the CALFED Science Program and the Priority Ecosystems Science program of the US Geological Survey. This is contribution number 27 from the CASCaDE project.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. US Geological Survey, Placer Hall, 6000 J St., Sacramento, CA, 95819, USA

    Larry R. Brown, Tara Morgan-King & David H. Schoellhamer

  2. Center for Watershed Sciences, Bodega Marine Laboratory, University of California, Davis, PO Box 247, Bodega Bay, CA, 94923, USA

    William A. Bennett

  3. Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of California, Berkeley, 205 O’Brien Hall, Mail Code 1712, Berkeley, CA, 94720-1720, USA

    R. Wayne Wagner

  4. Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of California, Berkeley, 665 Davis Hall, Mail Code 1710, Berkeley, CA, 94720-1710, USA

    Mark T. Stacey

  5. US Geological Survey, Bldg 15, McKelvey Building, 345 Middlefield Road, Menlo Park, CA, 94025-3561, USA

    Noah Knowles

  6. Bay Delta Office, US Bureau of Reclamation, 801 I Street, Sacramento, CA, 95814, USA

    Frederick Feyrer

  7. US Geological Survey, Scripps Institute of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, 9500 Gilman Drive, La Jolla, CA, 92093-0224, USA

    Michael Dettinger

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  1. Larry R. Brown
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Brown, L.R., Bennett, W.A., Wagner, R.W. et al. Implications for Future Survival of Delta Smelt from Four Climate Change Scenarios for the Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta, California. Estuaries and Coasts 36, 754–774 (2013). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12237-013-9585-4

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