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War on terror: Do military measures matter? Empirical analysis of post 9/11 period in Pakistan

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Abstract

This paper is the first attempt to investigate the causal relationship between military spending, terrorist attacks and intensity of terrorism in case of Pakistan, by applying the ARDL approach to cointegration and innovation accounting approach for causality analysis. The results indicate that war on terror is the major determinant of military spending followed by terrorism intensity and the number of terrorist attacks respectively. The study further finds that terrorism intensity and terrorist attacks Granger-cause military spending but the reverse is not present. The failure of military measures to curtail terrorism and its intensity induces one to suggest greater involvement of civil intelligence agencies by raising their budgets instead of pure military budget.

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Notes

  1. See Shahbaz (2010) for justification of log-linear specification.

  2. It is argued in economics literature that the Granger causality approaches such VECM Granger causality test has some limitations. The causality test cannot capture the relative strength of causal relation between the variable beyond the selected time period. This weakens the reliability of causality results by VECM Granger approach (Wolde-Rufael 2009).

  3. The OLS regression results are available from authors upon request. We have used dummy i.e. 1 after 2001 and 0 for the rest of the years.

  4. In Swat, the terrorism intensity was extremely high not only because of high fatalities but also due to the type of terrorist attacks, including suicide bombings and beheading the people. Its intensity was felt even in Islamabad and therefore, when the operation was conducted in Swat, it was welcomed by the people.

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Acknowledgments

We are thankful to anonymous referees for providing helpful comments. The views expressed in this study are the authors and may not necessarily represent their respective institutions.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad, Pakistan

    Muhammad Nasir

  2. COMSATS Institute of Information Technology, Lahore Campus, Islamabad, Pakistan

    Muhammad Shahbaz

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  1. Muhammad Nasir
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Correspondence to Muhammad Shahbaz.

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Nasir, M., Shahbaz, M. War on terror: Do military measures matter? Empirical analysis of post 9/11 period in Pakistan. Qual Quant 49, 1969–1984 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11135-014-0084-x

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