Legislative budget cycles
- Cameron A. Shelton
- … show all 1 hide
Purchase on Springer.com
$39.95 / €34.95 / £29.95*
Rent the article at a discountRent now
* Final gross prices may vary according to local VAT.
Recent literature suggests that electoral budget cycles are a phenomenon of new rather than established democracies. What part of the democratization process explains the amelioration of the political budget cycle? We argue the answer lies (in part) in the development of a strong party system. We extend the classic Rogoff-Siebert model to show that political budget cycles are possible in a legislative context with rational voters. We then demonstrate that the development of a strong party system can restrain political budget cycles in a majoritarian electoral system. Finally, we follow prior work in using vote share volatility as a measure of the institutionalization of the party system. Using newly collected vote-share data for 433 elections for 90 democracies from 1980–2007, we calculate a measure of party institutionalization. We then use this data to demonstrate that institutionalized party systems are associated with mitigated political budget cycles, especially in majoritarian electoral systems.
- Akhmedov, A., & Zhuravskaya, E. (2004). Opportunistic political cycles: test in a young democracy setting. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 119, 1301–1338. CrossRef
- Aldrich, J. (1995). Why parties? Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
- Alesina, A., Cohen, G., & Roubini, N. (1992). Macroeconomic policy and elections in OECD democracies. Economics and Politics, 4, 1–30. CrossRef
- Alt, J., & Lassen, D. (2006). Transparency, political polarization, and political budget cycles in OECD countries. American Journal of Political Science, 50(3), 530–550. CrossRef
- Anderson, C. (1995). Blaming the government: citizens and the economy in five European democracies. Armonk: M.E. Sharpe Publishers Inc.
- Anderson, C. (2000). Economic voting and political context: a comparative perspective. Electoral Studies, 19, 151–170. CrossRef
- Arellano, M., & Bond, S. (1991). Some test of specification for panel data: Monte Carlo evidence and an application to employment equations. Review of Economic Studies, 58, 277–297. CrossRef
- Arulampalam, W., Dasgupta, S., Dhillon, A., & Dutta, B. (2009). Electoral goals and center-state transfers: a theoretical model and empirical evidence from India. Journal of Development Economics, 88(1), 103–119. CrossRef
- Bielasiak, J. (2002). The institutionalization of electoral and party systems in post-communist states. Comparative Politics, 34(2), 189–210. CrossRef
- Brender, A., & Drazen, A. (2005). Political budget cycles in new versus established democracies. Journal of Monetary Economics, 52(7), 1271–1295. CrossRef
- Brender, A., & Drazen, A. (2008). How do deficits and growth affect reelection? The American Economic Review, 98(5), 2203–2220. CrossRef
- Dahlberg, M., & Johansson, E. (2002). On the vote-purchasing behavior of incumbent governments. The American Political Science Review, 96(1), 27–40.
- Drazen, A. (2001). The political business cycle after 25 years. In B. Bernanke & K. Rogoff (Eds.), NBER macroeconomics annual 2000 (Vol. 15, pp. 75–117). Cambridge: MIT Press.
- Duch, R. (2001). A developmental model of heterogeneous economic voting in new democracies. The American Political Science Review, 95(4), 895–910.
- Duch, R., & Stevenson, R. (2008). The economic vote: how political and economic institutions condition election results. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. CrossRef
- Fishback, P. V., Kantor, S., & Wallis, J. J. (2003). Can the New Deal’s three Rs be rehabilitated? A program-by-program, county-by-county analysis. Explorations in Economic History, 40(3), 278–307. CrossRef
- Keefer, P. (2007). Clientelism, credibility, and the policy choices of young democracies. American Journal of Political Science, 54(1), 804–821. CrossRef
- Kitschelt, H. (2000). Linkages between citizens and politicians in democratic polities. Comparative Political Studies, 33(6/7), 845–879. CrossRef
- Leitschig, S., & Morrison, K. (2010). Government spending and re-election (Working paper). June 21, 2010.
- Levitt, S. D., & Snyder, J. M. (1997). The impact of federal spending on house election outcomes. Journal of Political Economy, 105(1), 30–53. CrossRef
- Lewis-Beck, M. (1988). Economics and elections: the major western democracies. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press.
- Lijphart, A. (1999). Patterns of democracy. New Haven: Yale University Press.
- Mainwaring, S. (1999). Rethinking party systems in the third wave of democratization: the case of Brazil. Stanford: Stanford University Press.
- Mainwaring, S., & Scully, T. (1995). Introduction. In S. Mainwaring & T. Scully (Eds.), Building democratic institutions: party systems in Latin America Stanford: Stanford University Press.
- Mainwaring, S., & Torcal, M. (2005). Party system institutionalization and party system theory after the third wave of democratization (Working Paper #319). Kellog Institute.
- Milesi-Ferretti, G., Perotti, R., & Rostagno, M. (2002). Electoral systems and public spending. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 117(2), 609–657. CrossRef
- Pedersen, M. (1983). Changing patterns of electoral volatility in European party systems: explorations in explanation. In H. Daalder & P. Mair (Eds.), Western European party systems: continuity and change (pp. 29–66). Beverly Hills: Sage.
- Persson, T., & Tabellini, G. (2003a). The economic effects of constitutions. Cambridge: MIT Press.
- Persson, T., & Tabellini, G. (2003b). Do electoral cycles differ across political systems? (Working Paper No. 232). Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research (IGIER), March 2003.
- Powell, G., & Whitten, G. (1993). A cross-sectional analysis of economic voting: taking account of political context. American Journal of Political Science, 37, 391–414. CrossRef
- Reinhart, C., & Rogoff, K. (2004). The modern history of exchange rate arrangements: a reinterpretation. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 119, 1–48. CrossRef
- Rogoff, K., & Siebert, A. (1988). Elections and macroeconomic policy cycles. Review of Economic Studies, 55, 1–16. CrossRef
- Rose, R., & Munro, N. (2003). Elections and parties in new European democracies. Washington: CQ Press.
- Saporiti, A., & Streb, J. (2008). Separation of powers and political budget cycles. Public Choice, 137, 329–345. CrossRef
- Shi, M., & Svensson, J. (2006). Political budget cycles: do they differ across countries and why? Journal of Public Economics, 90(8–9), 1367–1389. CrossRef
- Stimson, J., Mackuen, M., & Erikson, R. (1995). Dynamic representation. The American Political Science Review, 89(3), 543–565. CrossRef
- Streb, J., Lema, D., & Torrens, G. (2009). Checks and balances on political budget cycles: cross-country evidence. Kyklos, 62(3), 426–447. CrossRef
- Legislative budget cycles
- Print ISSN
- Online ISSN
- Springer US
- Additional Links
- Political budget cycles
- Party institutionalization
- Industry Sectors
- Author Affiliations
- 1. Claremont McKenna College, Claremont, CA, USA