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Evaluation of drought and wetness episodes in a cold region (Northeast China) since 1898 with different drought indices

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Abstract

Drought identification and drought severity characterization are crucial to understand water scarcity processes. Evolution of drought and wetness episodes in the upper Nen River (UNR) basin have been analyzed for the period of 1951–2012 using meteorological drought indices and for the period of 1898–2010 using hydrological drought indices. There were three meteorological indices: one based on precipitation [the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI)] and the other two based on water balance with different formulations of potential evapotranspiration (PET) in the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). Moreover, two hydrological indices, the Standardized Runoff Index and Standardized Streamflow Index, were also applied in the UNR basin. Based on the meteorological indices, the results showed that the main dry period of 1965–1980 and wet periods of 1951–1964 and 1981–2002 affected this cold region. It was also found that most areas of the UNR basin experienced near normal condition during the period of 1951–2012. As a whole, the UNR basin mainly had the drought episodes in the decades of 1910, 1920, 1970 and 2000 based on hydrological indices. Also, the severity of droughts decreased from the periods of 1898–1950 to 1951–2010, while the severity of floods increased oppositely during the same periods. A correlation analysis showed that hydrological system needs a time lag of one or more months to respond to meteorological conditions in this cold region. It was also found that although precipitation had a major role in explaining temporal variability of drought, the influence of PET was not negligible. However, the sole temperature driver of PET had an opposite effect in the UNR basin (i.e., misestimating the drought detection) and was inferior to the SPI, which suggests that the PET in the SPEI should be determined by using underlying physical principles. This finding is an important implication for the drought research in future.

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Acknowledgments

The work was funded by the National Basic Research Program of China (#2010CB951101) and the Natural Science Foundation of China (#51079039). Meteorological datasets were collected from the Climate Data Center, China Meteorological Administration, and streamflow data were collected from the Songliao Water Conservancy Commission (SWCC), China. We are grateful to Lixiang Chen for collecting streamflow data during the period of 2006–2010. The SPI, SPEI and SSI programs were provided by Sergio M. Vicente-Serrano and Santiago Beguería. We also extend our special thanks to Andrew W. Wood for reviewing and giving some constructive suggestions for this work.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing, 210098, China

    Binquan Li, Zhongmin Liang & Zhongbo Yu

  2. Department of Geoscience, University of Nevada Las Vegas, Las Vegas, NV, 89154, USA

    Zhongbo Yu

  3. Division of Hydrologic Sciences, Desert Research Institute, Las Vegas, NV, 89119, USA

    Kumud Acharya

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  1. Binquan Li
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  2. Zhongmin Liang
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Correspondence to Binquan Li or Zhongbo Yu.

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Li, B., Liang, Z., Yu, Z. et al. Evaluation of drought and wetness episodes in a cold region (Northeast China) since 1898 with different drought indices. Nat Hazards 71, 2063–2085 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-013-0999-x

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-013-0999-x

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