Abstract
Natural disaster risk, a long-time concern in the insurance industry, is increasingly recognized as a present danger in the business strategies of risk control and enterprise management agencies. Floods and earthquakes can cause massive loss of life and infrastructure, resulting in business interruption and heavy casualties. Many of the short-term developmental strategies employed throughout the world have only served to exacerbate the impact of natural disasters. Therefore, this study presents a review of formal methods that are commonly used in risk and uncertainty analysis in planning and concludes with a critical assessment of the advantages and disadvantages of the different priority setting methods. Our focus is a preliminary proposal for developing an efficient probabilistic approach to facilitate design optimization that involves probabilistic constraints.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Ballew M, Davis S, Ratick S (1989) Guidelines for managing uncertainty in the calculation of flood damage reduction benefits. US Army Corps of Engineers, Institute for Water Resources
Bawa VJ (1982) Stochastic dominance: a research bibliography. Manage Sci 28:698–712
Haque CE, Etkin D (2007) People and community as constituent parts of hazards: the significance of societal dimensions in hazards analysis. Nat Hazards 41(2):271–282
Hsu WK, Huang PC, Chen CW, Chang CC, Hung DM, Chiang WL (2011) An integrated flood risk assessment model for property insurance industry in Taiwan. Nat Hazards 58(3):1295–1309
Kontio J, Getto G, Landes D (1998) Experiences in improving risk management processes using the concepts of the Riskit method. Presented at the SIGSOFT’98 Sixth International Symposium on the foundations of software engineering (FSE-6), November 3–5
Tsai CH, Chen CW (2010) An earthquake disaster management mechanism based on risk assessment information for the tourism industry-a case study from the island of Taiwan. Tour Manag 31(4):470–481
Tsai CH, Chen CW (2011) The establishment of a rapid natural disaster risk assessment model for the tourism industry. Tour Manag 32(1):158–171
Tseng CP, Chen CW (2011) A new viewpoint on risk control decision models for natural disasters. Nat Hazards 59(3):1715–1733
Tseng CP, Chen CW, Liu FR (2011) Risk control allocation model for pressure vessels and piping project. J Vib Control. doi:10.1177/1077546311403182
UN/ISDR (2002) Living with risk: a global review of disaster reduction initiatives. Preliminary version prepared as an interagency effort coordinated by the ISDR Secretariat, Geneva
Acknowledgments
The authors would like to thank the National Science Council of the Republic of China, Taiwan, for their financial support of this research under Contract Nos. NSC 100-2221-E-022-013-MY2 and NSC 100-2628-E-022-002-MY2.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Hsu, WK., Tseng, CP., Chiang, WL. et al. Risk and uncertainty analysis in the planning stages of a risk decision-making process. Nat Hazards 61, 1355–1365 (2012). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-011-0032-1
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-011-0032-1