Skip to main content

Advertisement

SpringerLink
Log in

Impact of climate change on regional irrigation water demand in Baojixia irrigation district of China

  • Original Article
  • Published:
Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

Water scarcity in China would possibly be aggravated by rapid increase in water demand for irrigation due to climate change. This paper focuses on the mechanism of climate change impact on regional irrigation water demand by considering the dynamic feedback relationships among climate change, irrigation water demand and adaptation measures. The model in implemented using system dynamics approach and employed in Baojixia irrigation district located in Shaanxi Province of China to analyses the changes in irrigation water demand under different climate change scenarios. Obtained results revealed that temperature will be the dominant factor to determine irrigation water demand in the area. An increase of temperature by 1 °C will result in net irrigation water demand to increase by about 12,050 × 104 m3 and gross water demand by about 20,080 × 104 m3 in the area. However, irrigation water demand will not increase at the same rate of temperature rise as the adaptation measures will eventually reduce the water demand increased by temperature rise. It is expected that the modeling approach presented in this study can be used in adopting policy responses to reduce climate change impacts on water resources.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5
Fig. 6
Fig. 7
Fig. 8

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Abu-Taleb MF (2000) Impacts of global climate change scenarios on water supply and demand in Jordan. Water Int 25(3):457–463

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ahmad S, Simonovic P (2004) Spatial system dynamics: new approach for simulation of water resources systems. J Comput Civ Eng 18(4):331–340

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ahmed HN, Liu J, Yinqin Z (2013) Numerical simulation of groundwater of large - scale irrigation in Northern China : Case of Baoyang irrigation area, Shaanxi, China. Int J Water Resour Environ Eng 5(9):533–545

    Google Scholar 

  • Allen RG, Pereira LS, Raes D, Smith M (1998) Crop evapotranspiration: guide-lines for computing crop requirements. Irrigation and drainage paper No. 56. FAO, Rome, p 300

    Google Scholar 

  • Ashour EK, Al-Najar A (2013) The impact of climate change and soil salinity in irrigation water demand on the Gaza Strip. J Water Clim Chang 4(2):118–130

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Belton V, Miller KA (2014) Water resource management and climate change adaptation: a holistic and multiple criteria perspective. Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Chang. doi:10.1007/s11027-013-9537-0

  • Brouwer C, Prins K, Heibloem M (1986) Irrigation water management: irrigation water needs. Food and Agriculture Organization, Rome. Available via DIALOG. http://www.fao.org/docrep/S2022E/ S2022E00.htm#Contents of subordinate document. Accessed 23 Dec 2008

  • Brumbelow K, Georgakakos A (2001) An assessment of irrigation needs and crop yield for the United States under potential climate changes. J Geophys Res Atmos 106:27383–27405

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Butler D, Memon FA (2006) Water demand management. IWA Publishing, London

    Google Scholar 

  • Coalition Eau (2009) Is drinking water affordable for all? France. 2009. http://www.emwis.org/documents/meetings/events/selected-events-5th-world-water-forum-istanbul-36778/rapports-prepares-par-henri-smets-pour-istanbul/01-EAU-FR-5mars.pdf/download/1/01-EAU-EN-5mars.pdf

  • De Silva CS, Weatherhead EK, Knox JW, Rodriguez-Diaz JA (2007) Predicting the impacts of climate change—a case study of paddy irrigation water requirements in Sri Lanka. Agr Water Manag 93(1):19–29

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Döll P (2002) Impact of climate change and variability on irrigation requirements: a global perspective. Clim Chang 54:269–293

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Downing TE, Butterfield RE, Edmonds B (2003) Climate change and the demand for water. Research report, Stockholm Environment Institute Oxford Office, Oxford

    Google Scholar 

  • Elgaali E, Garcia LA, Ojima DS (2007) High resolution modeling of the regional impacts of climate change on irrigation water demand. Clim Chang 84:441–461

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Elmahdi A, Malano H, Etchells T (2007) Using system dynamics to model water-reallocation. Environmentalist 27:3–12

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • FAO (1997) Irrigation potential in Africa: A basin approach. FAO Land and Water Bulletin 4. FAO Land and Water Development Division, Food and Agriculture Organization, Rome

    Google Scholar 

  • Fischer G, Tubiello FN, van Velthuizen H (2007) Climate change impacts on irrigation water requirements: effects of mitigation, 1990–2080. Technol Forecast Soc 74:1083–1107

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Giuliani M, Mainardi M, Castelletti A, & Gandolfi C (2013) Water demand and supply co-adaptation to mitigate climate change impacts in agricultural water management. In EGU General Assembly Conference Abstracts 15:7120

  • Global Water Partner (2012) Water demand management: The Mediterranean experience. Technical Focus Paper 1. Blue Plan and Global Water. Partnership

  • Harte J, Torn MS, Chang FR, Feifarek B, Kinzig A, Shaw R, Shen K (1995) Global warming and soil microclimate: results from a meadow warming experiment. Eco Appl 5:132–150

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Herrington P (1996) Climate change and the demand for water. Department of the Environment, HMSO, London

    Google Scholar 

  • Howell TA, Steiner JL, Schneider AD, Evett SR, Tolk JA (1994) Evapotranspiration of irrigated winter wheat, sorghum, and corn. International Summer Meeting of ASAE, Kansas

    Google Scholar 

  • IPCC (2007) Climate change 2007: impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability. Contribution of working group II to the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge

    Google Scholar 

  • Izaurralde RC, Rosenberg NJ, Brown RA (2003) Integrated assessment of Hadley Center (HadCM2) climate-change impacts on agricultural productivity and irrigation water supply in the conterminous United States: part II. Regional agricultural production in 2030 and 2095. Agr Forest Meteorog l117:97–122

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Jampanil D, Suttinon P, Nasu S, Koontanakulvong S (2012) Application of input-output table for future water resources management under policy and climate change in Thailand: rayong province case study. PAWEES 2012: international conference on challenges of water & environmental management in monsoon Asia. Royal Irrigation Department (Pakkred), Thailand

    Google Scholar 

  • Karamouz M, Yazdi MSS, Ahmadi B, Zahraie B (2011) A system dynamics approach to economic assessment of water supply and demand strategies. Paper presented at the World Environmental and Water Resources Congress 2011: Bearing Knowledge for Sustainability, pp 1194–1203

  • Karamouz M, Ahmadi B, Zahmatkesh Z (2012) Developing an agricultural planning model in a watershed considering climate change impacts. J Water Resour Plan Manag 139(4):349–36

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kendall MG (1975) Rank correlation methods. Griffin, London

    Google Scholar 

  • Langsdale S, Beall A, Carmichael J, Cohen S, Forster C (2007) An exploration of water resources futures under climate change using system dynamics modeling. Integr Assess J 7(1):51–79

  • Lu L, Xiuju Z, Xiuping L (2011) Application of system dynamics approach on water demand prediction in Yingtan city. IAHS-AISH Publication, Wallingford 350:235–240

  • Ma Z, Kang S, Zhang L, Tong L, Su X (2008) Analysis of impacts of climate variability and human activity on streamflow for a river basin in arid region of northwest China. J Hydrol 352(3):239–249

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mikhwanazi M (2006) Assessment of climate change impacts on irrigation requirements and productivity of sugarcane in Swaziland. MSc thesis, UK: Cranfield University

  • Min A, Han Q (2008) China climate change partnership framework - enhanced strategies for climate-proofed and environmentally sound agricultural production in the yellow river basin (C-PESAP). Situation Analysis of Shaanxi Province, Northwest Agriculture and Forestry University, Yangling

    Google Scholar 

  • OECD (2012) The OECD environmental outlook to 2050: the consequences of inaction. OECD and the PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency

  • Pahl-Wostl C, Craps M, Dewulf A, Mostert E, Tabara D, Taillieu T (2007) Social learning and water resources management. Ecol Soc 12(2)

  • Qi C, Chang NB (2011) System dynamics modeling for municipal water demand estimation in an urban region under uncertain economic impacts. J Environ Manag 92(6):1628–1641

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Qin H, Sun AC, Liu J, Zheng C (2012) System dynamics analysis of water supply and demand in the North China plain. Water Policy 14(2):214–231

  • Rodriguez Diaz JA, Weatherhead EK, Knox JW (2007) Climate change impacts on irrigation water requirements in the Guadalquivir River basin in Spain. Reg Environ Chang 7:149–159

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rosenzweig C, Strzepek KM, Major DC (2004) Water resources for agriculture in a changing climate: international case studies. Glob Environ Chang 14:345–360

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Safeeq M, Fares A (2012) Hydrologic response of a Hawaiian watershed to future climate change scenarios. Hydrol Process 26:2745–2764

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Schewe J, Wada Y, Wisser D (2012) Future irrigation water demand under climate change: Regional variability and uncertainties arising from GHMs and CMIP5 climate projections. AGU Fall Meeting, San Francisco

    Google Scholar 

  • Shahid S (2011) Impact of climate change on irrigation water demand of dry season Boro rice in northwest Bangladesh. Clim Chang 105(3–4):433–453

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Shen Y-J, Li S, Chen Y et al (2013) Estimation of regional irrigation water requirement and water supplyrisk in the arid region of Northwestern China 1989–2010. Agric Water Manag 128:55–64

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Shiklomanov IA, Rodda JC (2003) World water resources at the beginning of the 21st century. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge

    Google Scholar 

  • Tsur Y, Dinar A, Doukkali R, Row T (2004) Pricing irrigation water: Principles and cases from developing countries. Routledge, Washington

    Google Scholar 

  • Tian L, Zhang H, Zhang X (2009) A system dynamics approach for economic developing zone water demand forecasting: a case study of Tianjin linkong area. J Tianjin Polytech Univ 28(3):68–72

  • Vörösmarty CJ, Green P, Salisbury J, Lammers RB (2000) Global water resources: vulnerability from climate change and population growth. Science 289(5477):284

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Vörösmarty CJ, Douglas EM, Green PA, Revenga C (2005) Geospatial indicators of emerging water stress: an application to Africa. Ambio 34(3):230–236

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wada Y, Wisser D, Eisner S, Flörke M, Gerten D, Haddeland I, Hanasaki N, Masaki Y, Portmann F, Stacke T, Tessler Z, Schewe J (2013) Multimodel projections and uncertainties of irrigation water demand under climate change. Geophys Res Lett 40(17):4626–4632

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Walton B, Nawarathna B, George BA, Malano HM (2009) Future water supply and demand assessment in peri-urban catchments using system dynamics approach. Paper presented at the 18th World IMACS Congress and MODSIM09 International Congress on Modelling and Simulation: Interfacing Modelling and Simulation with Mathematical and Computational Sciences, Proceedings, 3872–3878

  • Wang X-J, Zhang J-Y, Shahid S et al (2012a) Gini coefficient to assess equity in domestic water supply in the Yellow River. Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Chang 17(1):65–75

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wang X-J, Zhang J-Y, Shahid S et al (2012b) Water resources management strategy for adaptation to droughts in China. Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Chang 17(8):923–937

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wang X-J, Zhang J-Y, Shahid S et al (2013a) Potential impact of climate change on future water demand in Yulin city, Northwest China. Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Chang. doi:10.1007/s11027-013-9476-9

    Google Scholar 

  • Wang X-J, Zhang J-Y, Yang Z-F et al (2013b) Historic water consumptions and future management strategies for Haihe River basin of Northern China. Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Chang. doi:10.1007/s11027-013-9496-5

    Google Scholar 

  • Wang X-J, Zhang J-Y, Shahid S et al (2014a) Catastrophe theory to assess water security and adaptation strategy in the context of environmental change. Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Chang 19(4):463–477

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wang X-J, Zhang J-Y, Wang J-H et al (2014b) Climate change and water resources management in Tuwei River basin of Northwest China. Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Chang 19(1):107–120

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wang X-J, Zhang J-Y, Shahid S, Guan E-H, Wu Y-X, Gao J, He R-M (2014c) Adaptation to climate change impacts on water demand. Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Chang. doi:10.1007/s11027-014-9571-6

    Google Scholar 

  • Yano T, Koriyama M, Haraguchi T (2005) Prediction of future change of water demand following global warming in the Cukurova region of Turkey. In: Proceedings of the International Conference on Water, Land and Food Security in Arid and Semi-Arid Regions, Bari: Mediterranean Agronomic Institute Valenzano (CIHEAM-MAIB)

  • Yano T, Aydin M, Haraguchi T (2007) Impact of climate change on irrigation demand and crop growth in a Mediterranean environment of Turkey. Sensors 7:2297–2315

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zhai C, Zhang H, Zhang X (2009) Application of system dynamics in the forecasting water resources demand in Tianjin polytechnic university. Proceeding AICI '09 Proceedings of the 2009 International Conference on Artificial Intelligence and Computational Intelligence, 1:273–276

  • Zhang XH, Zhang HW, Chen B (2008) Water resources planning based on complex system dynamics: a case study of Tianjin city. Commun Nonlinear Sci Numer Simul 13:2328–2336

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgments

We are grateful to the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 51309155 and 41330854), National Basic Research Program of China (No. 2010CB951104 and 2010CB951103), China Postdoctoral Science Foundation funded project (No. 2013M530027), Central Public-interest Scientific Institution Basal Research Fund (No. Y513004), Fundamental Research Funds for State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering (No. Y514010), and Open Research Fund of State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin (China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research) (No. IWHR-SKL-201212) for providing financial support for this research. We are also thankful to anonymous reviewers and editors for their helpful comments and suggestions.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute, Nanjing, 210029, China

    Xiao-jun Wang, Jian-yun Zhang & Rui-min He

  2. Research Center for Climate Change, Ministry of Water Resources, Nanjing, 210029, China

    Xiao-jun Wang, Jian-yun Zhang & Rui-min He

  3. State Key Laboratory of Water Environment Simulation, School of Environment, Beijing Normal University, Bejing, 100875, China

    Xiao-jun Wang & Xing-hui Xia

  4. Water Division, Bureau of Meteorology (BOM), Perth, Australia

    Mahtab Ali

  5. Faculty of Civil Engineering, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, 81310, Johor, Malaysia

    Shamsuddin Shahid

  6. College of Agricultural Water Conservancy Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing, 210098, China

    Zhuo Jiang

Authors
  1. Xiao-jun Wang
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Jian-yun Zhang
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Mahtab Ali
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. Shamsuddin Shahid
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  5. Rui-min He
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  6. Xing-hui Xia
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  7. Zhuo Jiang
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Xiao-jun Wang.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Wang, Xj., Zhang, Jy., Ali, M. et al. Impact of climate change on regional irrigation water demand in Baojixia irrigation district of China. Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Change 21, 233–247 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11027-014-9594-z

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11027-014-9594-z

Keywords

Search

Navigation