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Climate change and water resources management in Tuwei river basin of Northwest China

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Abstract

Water resources are an integral part of the socio-economic-environmental system. Water resources have dynamic interactions with related social, economic and environmental elements, as well as regulatory factors that are characterized by non-linear and multi-loop feedbacks. In this paper, a complex System Dynamic (SD) model is used to study the relationship among population growth, economic development, climate change, management strategies and water resources, and identify the best management strategy to adapt with the changing environment in the Tuwei river basin of Northwest China. Three management alternatives viz. business as usual, water supply management and water demand management are studied under different climate change scenarios. Results indicate that water shortage rate in Tuwei river basin may increase up to 80 % by the year 2030 if current management practices are continued or the supply based management strategy is adopted. On the other hand, water demand management can keep the water shortage rate within a tolerable limit and therefore can be considered as the sustainable strategy for water resources management to maintain the economic growth and ecological status of the Tuwei river basin.

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Acknowledgments

We are grateful to the Open Research Fund of State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin (China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research) (NO: IWHR-SKL-201212), National Basic Research Program of China (No. 010CB951104) and Non-profit Industry Program of the Ministry of Water Resource of the People’s Republic of China (No. 200801001) for financial support of this research. We acknowledge National Climate Center for providing the results of regional climate model simulations. Thanks also to the Australian Government agency responsible for managing Australia’s overseas aid program (AusAID) for financial support of this research.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing, China, 100038

    Wang Xiao-jun, Wang Jian-hua, He Rui-min & Liu Jin-hua

  2. State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute, Nanjing, China, 210029

    Wang Xiao-jun, Zhang Jian-yun & He Rui-min

  3. Research Center for Climate Change, Ministry of Water Resources, Nanjing, China, 210029

    Wang Xiao-jun, Zhang Jian-yun & He Rui-min

  4. Water Division, Bureau of Meteorology (BOM), Melbourne, Australia

    Amgad ElMahdi & David King

  5. Yellow River Basin Water Resources Protection Bureau, Zhengzhou, China, 450004

    Wang Xin-gong

  6. Faculty of Civil Engineering, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, 81310, Johor, Malaysia

    Shamsuddin Shahid

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  1. Wang Xiao-jun
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  2. Zhang Jian-yun
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Correspondence to Wang Xiao-jun.

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Xiao-jun, W., Jian-yun, Z., Jian-hua, W. et al. Climate change and water resources management in Tuwei river basin of Northwest China. Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Change 19, 107–120 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11027-012-9430-2

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11027-012-9430-2

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