Abstract
This paper presents a study in which the lung cancer risk in males was characterized based on a simulation model of mortality rates. Block sequential simulation of mortality rates, measured in counties of different sizes, was implemented and applied to a normal grid of continental Portugal with high spatial resolution. The uncertainty in the mortality rate measurements, directly related to differences in the population size of each county, was integrated in a block direct sequential simulation through Poisson kriging of local means and variances. Three age groups were examined: 50–59, 60–69, and 70–79 years. After the continuous geographic patterns of lung cancer risk were obtained, factors potentially associated with the main areas of risk were analyzed for southern Portugal. Thus, a defined class of land use and dry weather events, related to airborne particulate matter, were found to be associated with high-risk areas, resulting in high local spatial correlation patterns in all three age groups.
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Oliveira, A.R., Branquinho, C., Pereira, M. et al. Stochastic Simulation Model for the Spatial Characterization of Lung Cancer Mortality Risk and Study of Environmental Factors. Math Geosci 45, 437–452 (2013). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11004-013-9443-8
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11004-013-9443-8