, Volume 26, Issue 1, pp 97-102,
Open Access This content is freely available online to anyone, anywhere at any time.

Alpha shock

This is an excerpt from the content

Any believable prediction will be wrong. Any correct prediction will be unbelievable. Either way, a futurist can’t win. He is either dismissed or wrong … Most people, particularly most smart people … will err on the side of not being fantastical enough. Because absolutely no one wants to be dismissed. What’s the point of making a prediction if no one is listening? So 99% of future predictions will fall short of the necessary unreasonableness for a correct prediction.

–Kevin Kelly, building on Arthur C. Clarke.

Sanjay shuffled bleary-eyed into the expansive kitchen. “Lordy,” he groaned. One-thirty in the afternoon. Well, New Year’s Eve comes but once a year. Pouring himself some coffee, he sat at the table and took stock, his natural analytic bent slowly fighting to re-establish dominance. Through the floor to ceiling windows he looked out over a grey and gloomy London cityscape.

2037 was shaping up to be an important year for him. Although he was a widely respected academic, with a high Q