Abstract
Scenario development methods get to grips with taking a long-term view on complex issues such as climate change through involvement of stakeholders. Many of the recent (global) scenario exercises have been structured according to a Story-and-Simulation approach. Although elaborately studied, conceptual and practical issues remain in linking qualitative stories and quantitative models. In this paper, we show how stakeholders can directly estimate model parameter values using a three-step approach called Fuzzy Set Theory. We focus on the effect of multiple iterations between stories and models. Results show that we were successful in quickly delivering stakeholder-based quantification of key model parameters, with full consistency between linguistic terms used in stories and numeric values. Yet, values changed strongly from one iteration to the next. A minimum of two and preferably at least three iterations is needed to harmonise stories and models. We conclude that the application of Fuzzy Set Theory enabled a highly valuable, structured and reproducible process to increase consistency between stories and models, but that future work is needed to show its true potential, particularly related to the effect of iterations. Additionally, the number of tools that need to be applied in a short period of time to execute a Story-And-Simulation approach introduces drawbacks that need to be studied. However, an approach such as Story-And-Simulation is indispensable and effective in marrying the perspectives of scientists and other stakeholders when studying complex systems and complex problems.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Alcamo J (2008) Environmental futures: the practice of environmental scenario analysis. Developments in Integrated Environmental Assessment—Volume 2. Elsevier, Amsterdam
Alcamo J, Van Vuuren D, Rosegrant M et al (2005) Methodology for developing the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment scenarios. In: Carpenter SR et al (eds) Ecosystems and human well-being: scenarios. Findings of the Scenarios Working Group of the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment. Island Press, Washington, pp 145–172
Amer M, Daim TU, Jetter A (2013) A review of scenario planning. Futures 46:23–40
Aus der Beek T, Flörke M, Lapola DM, Schaldach R (2010) Modelling historical and current irrigation water demand on the continental scale: Europe. Adv Geosci 27:79–85
Carpenter SR, Pingali PL, Bennett EM et al (2005) Ecosystems and human well-being: scenarios. Findings of the Scenarios Working Group of the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment. Island Press, Washington
Damigos D, Anyfantis F (2011) The value of view through the eyes of real estate experts: a Fuzzy Delphi Approach. Landsc Urban Plan 101:171–178
EEA (2005) The European environment. State and outlook 2005. EEA, Copenhagen
EEA (2007) Land-use scenarios for Europe: qualitative and quantitative analysis on a European scale (PRELUDE). EEA, Copenhagen
EEA (2010) The European Environment, state and outlook 2010. Assessment of global megatrends. EEA, Copenhagen
Eierdanz F, Alcamo A, Acosta-Michlik L et al (2008) Using fuzzy set theory to address the uncertainty of susceptibility to drought. Reg Environ Chang 8:197–205
Flörke M, Bärlund I, Schneider C et al (2012) Pan-European freshwater resources in a changing environment: how will the Black Sea region develop? Water Sci Technol 12:563–572
Flörke M, Kynast E, Bärlund I et al (2013) Domestic and industrial water uses of the past 60 years as a mirror of socio-economic development: a global simulation study. Glob Environ Chang 23:144–156
Gallopín G, Hammond A, Raskin P, et al. (1997) Branch Points: Global scenarios and human choice. PoleStar Series Report no. 7, Stockholm Environment Institute, Stockholm
Gramberger M, Zellmer M, Kok K, Metzger M (submitted for this issue) Stakeholder Integrated Research (STIR): A new approach tested in climate change adaptation research. Climatic Change
Harrison PA, Holman IP, Cojacaru G et al (2013) Combining qualitative and quantitative understanding for exploring cross-sectoral climate change impacts, adaptation and vulnerability in Europe. Reg Environ Chang 13:761–780
Harrison PA, Holman IP, Berry PM (submitted for this issue) Assessing cross-sectoral climate change impacts, vulnerability and adaptation:An introduction to the CLIMSAVE project. Climatic Change
Henrichs T, Zurek M, Eickhout B et al (2010) Scenario Development and Analysis for forward-looking ecosystem assessments. Chapter 5. In: UNEP (ed) Ecosystems and Human Well-being: a Manual for Assessment Practitioners. Island Press, Washington
Holman, IP, Harrison, PA (2011) Report describing the development and validation of the sectoral meta-models for integration into the IA platform. CLIMSAVE Deliverable 2.2. Available online at http://www.climsave.eu/climsave/outputs.html
Holman IP, Rounsevell MDA, Cojacaru G et al (2008) The concepts and development of a participatory regional integrated assessment tool. Clim Chang 90:5–30
Jetter, AJ, Kok, K (2014) Fuzzy Cognitive Maps for futures studies. A methodological assessment of concepts and methods. Futures: accepted for publication
Kok K (2009) The potential of Fuzzy Cognitive Maps for semi-quantitative scenario development, with an example from Brazil. Glob Environ Chang 19:122–133
Kok K, Van Delden H (2013) Linking narrative storylines and quantitative models to combat desertification in the Guadalentín watershed (Spain). In: Giaoutzi M, Sapio B (eds) Recent developments in foresight methodologies. Complex Networks and Dynamic Systems 1. Springer, New York, pp 203–214
Kok K, Patel M, Rothman DS, Quaranta G (2006) Multi-scale narratives from an IA perspective: Part II. Participatory local scenario development. Futures 38:285–311
Kok K, Van Vliet M, Bärlund I, Dubel A, Sendzimir J (2011) Combining participative backcasting and explorative scenario development: experiences from the SCENES project. Technol Forecast Soc Chang 78(5):835–851
Raskin P, Tariq B, Gallopín G et al. (2002) Great transition: the promise and lure of the times ahead. SEI PoleStar Series Report no. 10. Stockholm Environment Institute, Boston
Rothman DS, Agard J, Alcamo J (2007) Chapter 9: the future today. Global Environment Outlook 4: environment for development. UNEP, Nairobi
Rotmans J, Van Asselt MBA, Anastasi C et al (2000) Visions for a sustainable Europe. Futures 32:809–831
Schaldach R, Koch J, aus der Beek T et al (2012) Current and future irrigation water requirements in pan-Europe: a comparative analysis of influencing factors. Glob Planet Chang 94–95:33–45
UNEP (2007) Global Environment Outlook 4: Environment for development. UNEP, Nairobi
Van Notten PWF, Rotmans J, Van Asselt MBA et al (2001) An updated scenario typology. Futures 35:423–443
Van’t Klooster SA, Van Asselt MBA (2006) Practising the scenario-axes technique. Futures 38:15–30
Verzano K, Bärlund I, Flörke M (2012) Modeling variable river flow velocity on continental scale: current situation and climate change impacts in Europe. J Hydrol 424–42:238–251
Acknowledgments
This research was funded by SCENES (EC-funded FP6, contract number 036822) and CLIMAVE (EC-funded FP7, contract number 244031). We wish to thank also all stakeholders that were involved in the process of scenario development.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Additional information
This article is part of a Special Issue on “Regional Integrated Assessment of Cross-sectoral Climate Change Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability” with Guest Editors Paula A. Harrison and Pam M. Berry.
Electronic supplementary material
Below is the link to the electronic supplementary material.
ESM 1
(DOCX 8.72 kb)
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Kok, K., Bärlund, I., Flörke, M. et al. European participatory scenario development: strengthening the link between stories and models. Climatic Change 128, 187–200 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-014-1143-y
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-014-1143-y