Climatic Change

, Volume 108, Issue 4, pp 723-732

First online:

Open Access This content is freely available online to anyone, anywhere at any time.

Reasoning about climate uncertainty

  • Judith CurryAffiliated withSchool of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Institute of Technology Email author 


This paper argues that the IPCC has oversimplified the issue of uncertainty in its Assessment Reports, which can lead to misleading overconfidence. A concerted effort by the IPCC is needed to identify better ways of framing the climate change problem, explore and characterize uncertainty, reason about uncertainty in the context of evidence-based logical hierarchies, and eliminate bias from the consensus building process itself.