, Volume 108, Issue 4, pp 723-732,
Open Access This content is freely available online to anyone, anywhere at any time.
Date: 09 Aug 2011

Reasoning about climate uncertainty

Abstract

This paper argues that the IPCC has oversimplified the issue of uncertainty in its Assessment Reports, which can lead to misleading overconfidence. A concerted effort by the IPCC is needed to identify better ways of framing the climate change problem, explore and characterize uncertainty, reason about uncertainty in the context of evidence-based logical hierarchies, and eliminate bias from the consensus building process itself.