, Volume 108, Issue 4, pp 723-732,
Open Access This content is freely available online to anyone, anywhere at any time.

Reasoning about climate uncertainty

Abstract

This paper argues that the IPCC has oversimplified the issue of uncertainty in its Assessment Reports, which can lead to misleading overconfidence. A concerted effort by the IPCC is needed to identify better ways of framing the climate change problem, explore and characterize uncertainty, reason about uncertainty in the context of evidence-based logical hierarchies, and eliminate bias from the consensus building process itself.