Skip to main content

Advertisement

SpringerLink
Log in

Energy related system dynamic models: a literature review

  • Original Paper
  • Published:
Central European Journal of Operations Research Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

System dynamics is extensively used as a decision support method in the energy sector. There exists a wide body of applications worldwide that are used not only within power companies but also by governmental agencies at the regional and national level. This review includes most of the relevant energy publications related to system dynamics and presents them within a literature review table divided into four key energy topics. This literature review is carried out in a chronological way and focuses on the period since the year 2000. The main purpose of this study is to summarise the remarkable body of work and the latest system dynamics trends related to the energy sector, in particular renewable energy that system dynamics practitioners have accumulated in the last 15 years.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Similar content being viewed by others

Notes

  1. Hubbert Peak predicted in 1956 that the U.S. oil production would peak in the early 1970’s.

References

  • Abada I, Briat V, Massol O (2013) Construction of a fuel demand function portraying interfuel substitution, a system dynamics approach. Energy 49:240–251

  • Ackere AV, Ruud M, Davidsen P (2005) Managing a reservoir-based hydro-energy plant: building understanding in the buy and sell decisions in a changing environment. Energy Policy 33(7):39–947

    Google Scholar 

  • Akhwanzada SA, Tahar RAM, Cheng J (2014) Simulating the effect of feed-in tariff on renewable energy penetration—a system dynamics approach. In: Wan Omar K et al (eds) Proceedings of the international conference, pp 717–721

  • Anderson V, Johnson L (1997) Systems thinking basics. From concepts to causal loops. Pegasus Communications, Cambridge, Mass, ISBN: 1883823129

  • Arto K, Dolgopolova I, Hu B, Leopold A, Pickl S (2012) Germany’s electricity industry in 2025: evaluation of portfolio concepts. In: The 212 international conference of the system dynamics society proceedings. St. Gallen, Switzerland, pp 22–26

  • Aslani A, Wong KFV (2014) Analysis of renewable energy development to power generation in the United States. Renew Energy 63:153–161

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Aslani A, Helo P, Naaranoja M (2014) Role of renewable energy policies in energy dependency in Finland: system dynamics approach. Appl Energy 113:58–765

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Balnac K, Bokhoree C, Deenapanray P, Bassi A (eds) (2009) A system dynamics model of the Mauritian power sector. In: Proceedings of 27th international conference of the system dynamics society. Albuquerque, NM, USA, pp 26–30

  • Barisa A, Romagnoli F, Blumberga A, Blumberga D (2015) Future biodiesel policy designs and consumption patterns in Latvia: a system dynamics model. J Clean Prod 88:71–82

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Carhart NJ (eds) (2009) Investigating the potential use of system dynamics as a tool for event analysis in the nuclear industry. IET international conference on system safety: IET

  • Château P-A, Chang Y-C, Chen H, Ko T-T (2012) Building a stakeholder’s vision of an offshore wind-farm project: a group modeling approach. Sci Total Environ 420:43–53

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chi KC, Nuttall WJ, Reiner DM (2009) Dynamics of the UK natural gas industry: system dynamics modelling and long-term energy policy analysis. Technol Forecast Social Change 76(3):339–357

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dimitrovski A, Ford A, Tomsovic K (2007) An interdisciplinary approach to long-term modelling for power system expansion. Int J Crit Infrast 3(1–2):235–264

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dykes KL, Bean M, Cook J (2011) System modeling for the large-scale diffusion of multiple electricity technologies in an urban distribution network. IEEE power and energy society general meeting proceedings

  • Eker S, Daalen EV (2015) A model-based analysis of biomethane production in the Netherlands and the effectiveness of the subsidization policy under uncertainty. Energy Policy 82:178–196

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Fan Y, Yang R-G, Wie Y-M (2007) A system dynamics based model for coal investment. Energy 32(6):898–905

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ford A (2001) Waiting for the boom: a simulation study of power plant construction in California. Energy Policy 29(11):847–869

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ford A (2005) Simulating the impacts of a strategic fuels reserve in California. Energy Policy 33(4):483–498

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ford A (2007) Global climate change and the electric power industry to appear in competitive electricity markets: design, implementation and performance. In: Sioshansi FP (ed), pp 499–542. doi:10.1016/978-008047172-3.50018-0

  • Ford A, Vogstad K, Flynn H (2007) Simulating price patterns for tradable green certificates to promote electricity generation from wind. Energy Policy 35(1):91–111

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Forrester JW (1958) Industrial dynamics: a major breakthrough for decision makers. Harv Bus Rev 36(4):37–66

    Google Scholar 

  • Forrester JW (1961) Industrial dynamics. MIT press, Cambridge

    Google Scholar 

  • Forrester, JW (1973) World dynamics, 2nd edn. Wright-Allen Press, Cambridge

  • Forrester JW (1982) Global modelling revisited. Futures 14(2):95–110

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Forrester JW (1992) Policies, decisions and information sources for modeling. Eur J Oper Res 59(1):42–63

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Forrester JW (1999) Urban dynamics. Pegasus Communications, Waltham (System dynamics series). ISBN 10: 1883823390

  • Forrester JW (2009) Some basic concepts in system dynamics. Sloan School of Management, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge

    Google Scholar 

  • Franco CJ, Castaneda M, Dyner I (2015) Simulating the new British electricity-market reform. Eur J Oper Res 245(1):273–285

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Genoese M (2010) Energiewirtschaftliche Analysen des deutschen Strommarkts mit agentenbasierter Simulation. Nomos, Berlin

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • Hoffmann B, Häfele S, Karl U (2013) Analysis of performance losses of thermal power plants in Germany—a system dynamics model approach using data from regional climate modelling. Energy 49:193–203. doi:10.1016/j.energy.2012.10.034

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hosseini SH, Shakouri GH, Akhlaghi FAR (2012) A study on the near future of wind power development in Iran: a system dynamics approach. Second Iranian conference on renewable energy and distributed generation, ICREDG 2012

  • Hosseini SH, Kiani B, Mohammadi Pour M, Ghanbari M (2014) Examination of Iran’s crude oil production peak and evaluating the consequences: a system dynamics approach. Energy Explor Exploit 32(4):673–690

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hsu C-W (2012) Using a system dynamics model to assess the effects of capital subsidies and feed-in tariffs on solar PV installations. Appl Energy 100:205–217

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hu B, Leopold A, Pickl S (2012) IT-Based decision support for turning on Germany’s energy transition. Operations research proceedings, pp 449–454

  • Hu B, Leopold A, Pickl S (2013) Transition towards renewable energy supply—a system dynamics approach. In: Growth and sustainable development. Springer, Berlin, pp. 217–226

  • Hu B, Leopold A, Pickl S (2015) Concept and prototype of a web tool for public-private project contracting based on a system dynamics model. Cent Eur J Oper Res 23(2):407–419

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Jäger T, Schmidt S, Karl U (eds) (2009) A system dynamics model for the german electricity market (No. 21500045). EcoMod

  • Jalal TS, Bodger P (eds) (2010) The development of a system dynamics model to evaluate electricity generation expansion in New Zealand. Universities power engineering conference (AUPEC), 20th Australasian. Universities power engineering conference (AUPEC)

  • Jeong S-J, Kim K-S, Park J-W, Lim D-S, Lee S-M (2008) Economic comparison between coal-fired and liquefied natural gas combined cycle power plants considering carbon tax: Korean case. Energy 33(8):1320–1330

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Jiao J-L, Han K-Y, Wu G, Li L-L, Wei Y-M (2014) The effect of an SPR on the oil price in China: a system dynamics approach. Appl Energy 133:363–373

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Jones CA (2012) Dynamic growth in a photovoltaic market. Int J Technol Policy Manag 12(2–3):101–114

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kasada R, Kwon S, Konishi S, Sakamoto Y, Yamanishi T, Tobita K (2015) A system dynamics model for stock and flow of tritium in fusion power plant. Fusion Eng Des. doi:10.1016/j.fusengdes.2015.03.047

  • Kiani B, Hosseini SH, Amiri Roozbeh H (2009) Examining the Hubbert peak of Iran‘s crude oil: a system dynamics approach. Eur J Sci Res 25(3):437–447

    Google Scholar 

  • Kiani B, Mirzamohammadi S, Hosseini SH (2010) A survey on the role of system dynamics methodology on fossil fuel resources analysis. Int Bus Res 3(3):84–93

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kilanc GP, Or I (2006) A system dynamics model for the decentralized electricity market. Int J Simul Syst Sci Technol 7(7):40–55

    Google Scholar 

  • Kilanc GP, Or I (2008) A decision support tool for the analysis of pricing, investment and regulatory processes in a decentralized electricity market. Energy Policy 36(8):3036–3044. doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2008.03.034

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kunsch PL, Friesewinkel J (2014) Nuclear energy policy in Belgium after Fukushima. Energy Policy 66:462–474

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Leaver JD, Unsworth CP (2007) System dynamics modelling of spring behaviour in the Orakeikorako geothermal field, New Zealand. Geothermics 36(2):101–114

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Li J, Dong X, Shangguan J, Hook M (2011) Forecasting the growth of China’s natural gas consumption. Energy 36(3):1380–1385

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Li C, Zhou L, Na LI, Zeng M (2012) Modelling and simulation of power grid engineering project based on system dynamics on the background of smart grid. Syst Eng Proc 3:92–99

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lisse SD (2014) Applying system dynamics for nuclear power plant design. ASME 2014 small modular reactors symposium, SMR 2014

  • Ma T, Ji J, Chen M-Q (2010) Study on the hydrogen demand in China based on system dynamics model. Int J Hydrogen Energy 35(7):3114–3119

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Meadows DH, Meadows DL, Randers J, Behrens WW (1972) The limits to growth. Universe Books, New York (A Potomac Associates book)

  • Movilla S, Miguel LJ, Blázquez LF (2013) A system dynamics approach for the photovoltaic energy market in Spain. Energy Policy 60:142–154

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mutingi M (2013) Adoption of renewable energy technologies: a fuzzy system dynamics perspective. In: Qudrat-Ullah Hassan (ed) Energy policy modeling in the 21st century. Springer, New York, pp 175–196 (Understanding Complex Systems)

    Chapter  Google Scholar 

  • Niu D, Song Z (2014) Medium and long-term load forecasting based on system dynamics and electricity elasticity coefficient method in China. Energy Educ Sci Technol Part A Energy Sci Res 32(3):2085–2094

    Google Scholar 

  • Ochoa P, Ackere AV (2009) Policy changes and the dynamics of capacity expansion in the Swiss electricity market. Energy Policy 37(5):1983–1998

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Olsina F, Garces F, Haubrich H-J (2006) Modeling long-term dynamics of electricity markets. Energy Policy 34(12):1411–1433

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Pereira AJC, Saraiva JT (2013) Long-term impact of wind power generation in the Iberian day-ahead electricity market price. Energy 55:1159–1171

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ponzo R, Dyner I, Arango S, Larsen E (2011) Regulation and development of the Argentinean gas market. Energy Policy 39(3):1070–1079

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Qudrat-Ullah H (2013) Understanding the dynamics of electricity generation capacity in Canada: a system dynamics approach. Energy 59:285–294

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Qudrat-Ullah H (2014) Green power in Ontario: a dynamic model-based analysis. Energy 77:859–870

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Qudrat-Ullah H, Davidsen P (2001) Understanding the dynamics of electricity supply, resources and pollution: Pakistan’s case. Energy 26(6):595–606

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Reddi KR, Li W, Wang B, Moon Y (2013) System dynamics modelling of hybrid renewable energy systems and combined heating and power generator. Int J Sustain Eng 6(1):31–47

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rendon-Sagardi MA, Sanchez-Ramirez C, Cortes-Robles G, Alor-Hernandez G, Cedillo-Campos MG (2014) Dynamic analysis of feasibility in ethanol supply chain for biofuel production in Mexico. Appl Energy 123:358–367

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Robalino López A, Nieto M, Isidro Á, García Ramos JE (2014) System dynamics modeling for renewable energy and \({\rm CO}_{2}\) emissions: a case study of Ecuador. Energy Sustain Dev 20:11–20

  • Sánchez JJ, Barquín J, Centeno E, López-Pea A (eds) (2008) A multidisciplinary approach to model long-term investments in electricity generation: combining system dynamics, credit risk theory and game theory: IEEE

  • Saysel AK, Hekimoğlu M (2013) Exploring the options for carbon dioxide mitigation in Turkish electric power industry: system dynamics approach. Energy Policy 60:675–686

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Senge PM (1994) The fifth discipline. The art and practice of the learning organization. Doubleday, Currency, New York

  • Sterman JD (2000) Business dynamics: systems thinking and modeling for a complex world, vol 19. Irwin/McGraw-Hill, Boston

    Google Scholar 

  • Tan B, Anderson E, Dyer J, Parker G (2010) Evaluating system dynamics models of risky projects using decision trees: alternative energy projects as an illustrative example. Syst Dyn Rev 26(1):1–17

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tang X, Zhang B, Höök M, Feng L (2010) Forecast of oil reserves and production in Daqing oilfield of China. Energy 35(7):3097–3102

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tao Z, Li M (2007) System dynamics model of Hubbert peak for China’s oil. Energy Policy 35(4):2281–2286

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tu G-P, Jia R-A, Wang C-X, Jia X-J, Deng Q-Z, Peng Y-Q (2009) Theory and application research on construction of planting and livestock breeding biomass energy industry based on system dynamics. Syst Eng Theory Pract 29(3):1–9

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Vogstad K (2005) A system dynamics analysis of the nordic electricity market: the transition from fossil fuelled towards a renewable supply within a liberalised electricity market. NTNU, Trondheim

    Google Scholar 

  • Vogstad K, Botterud A, Maribu KM, Grenaa S (2002) The transition from fossil fuelled to a renewable power supply in a deregulated electricity market. In: Proceedings of the international conference on system dynamics

  • Wolstenholme EF (1983) System dynamics: a system methodology or a system modelling technique. Dynamica 9(2):84–90

    Google Scholar 

  • Wu J, Huang Y-L, Liu C-C (2011) Effect of floating pricing policy: an application of system dynamics on oil market after liberalization. Energy Policy 39(7):4235–4252

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Xu J, Li X (2011) Using system dynamics for simulation and optimization of one coal industry system under fuzzy environment. Expert Syst Appl 38(9):11552–11559

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Yunna W, Kaifeng C, Yisheng Y, Tiantian F (2015) A system dynamics analysis of technology, cost and policy that affect the market competition of shale gas in China. Renew Sustainable Energy Rev 45:235–243

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zhao J, Mazhari E, Celik N, Son Y-J (2011) Hybrid agent-based simulation for policy evaluation of solar power generation systems. Simul Model Pract Theory 19(10):2189–2205

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Universität der Bundeswehr München, Neubiberg, Germany

    Armin Leopold

Authors
  1. Armin Leopold
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Armin Leopold.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Leopold, A. Energy related system dynamic models: a literature review. Cent Eur J Oper Res 24, 231–261 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10100-015-0417-4

Download citation

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10100-015-0417-4

Keywords

Search

Navigation