Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

Performance of August–September Indian monsoon rainfall when June–July rainfall is reported as being in deficit/excess

  • Original Paper
  • Published:
Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

The Indian summer monsoon season (June to September) has been divided into two sub-seasons, viz., June + July (JJ) and August + September (AS). The performance of all-India AS rainfall has been examined when JJ rainfall is reported as being in excess/deficit, during the period 1871–2012. The study shows that the performance of AS rainfall is higher/lower than the JJ rainfall when JJ rainfall is in deficit/excess. The mean values of JJ and AS rainfalls are computed when JJ rainfall is in deficit/excess. The difference between the mean values is statistically significant. Sea surface temperature (SST) data over the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal for the period 1941–2011 have been used to examine the relationship between JJ SST and JJ, AS and AS − JJ (AS minus JJ) rainfalls. A statistically significant negative correlation is observed between JJ SST and JJ rainfall while significant positive correlation is observed between JJ SST and AS − JJ rainfall. The sub-seasonal relationship has been explained through the changes in the surface meridional temperature gradient over the Indian land and Oceanic regions in the JJ sub-season due to the performance of rainfall during the JJ sub-season. Wind data at 850 and 200 hPa levels for the period 1949–2012 have been analyzed to examine anomalies during deficit and excess JJ years. During deficit JJ rainfall years, easterly wind anomalies are observed at lower tropospheric levels over the Arabian Sea, which influence SST distributions. The SST distribution strengthens the meridional temperature gradient for developing the strong monsoon circulation during the AS sub-season thereby increasing the AS rainfall. A reverse situation is observed during excess JJ sub-seasons.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5
Fig. 6
Fig. 7
Fig. 8
Fig. 9

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Boschat G, Terray P, Masson S (2012) Robustness of SST teleconnections and precursory patterns associated with Indian summer monsoon. Clim Dyn 38(11–12):2143–2165

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chung CE, Ramanathan V (2006) Weakening of North Indian SST gradients and the monsoon rainfall in India and the Sahel. J Clim 19:2036–2044

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Clark C, Cole JE, Webster PJ (2000) Indian Ocean SST and Indian summer rainfall: predictive relationships and their decadal variability. J Clim 13:2503–2519

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dash SK, Shekher MS, Singh GP (2002) Relationship between surface field over Indian Ocean and monsoon rainfall over homogeneous zones of India. Mausam 53:133–144

    Google Scholar 

  • Gadgil S, Joseph PV (2003) On breaks of the Indian monsoon. Proc Indian Acad Sci (Earth Planet Sci) 112:529–558

    Google Scholar 

  • Gadgil SJ, Srinivasan RS, Nanjundiah RS, Krishna Kumar KAA, Munot AA, Rupa Kumar K (2002) On forecasting the Indian summer monsoon: the intriguing season of 2002. Curr Sci 83:394–403

    Google Scholar 

  • Goswami BN, Ajayamohan RS (2001) Intraseasonal oscillations and interannual variability of the Indian summer monsoon. J Clim 14(6):1180–1198

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Halpert MS, Ropelewski CF (1992) Surface temperature patterns with the southern oscillation. J Clim 5:557–593

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kothawale DR, Kulkarni JR (2014) Performance of all-India southwest monsoon seasonal rainfall when monthly rainfall reported as deficit/excess. Meteorol Appl 21:619–634. doi:10.1002/met.1385

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kothawale DR, Rupa Kumar K (2005) On the recent changes in surface temperature trends over India. Geophys Res Lett 32:L18714. doi:10.1029/2005GL023528

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kothawale DR, Munot AA, Borgaonkar HP (2008) Temperature variability over Indian Ocean and its relationship with Indian summer monsoon rainfall. Theor Appl Climatol 92:31–45. doi:10.1007/s00704-006-091-z

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kothawale DR, Krishna Kumar K, Srinivasan G (2012) Spatial asymmetry of temperature trends over India and possible role of aerosols. Theor Appl Climatol 110:263–280. doi:10.1007/s00704-012-0628-8

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kripalani RH, Kulkarni A (1997) Rainfall variability over south-east Asia-connections with Indian monsoon and ENSO extremes: new perspectives. Int J Climatol 17:1155–1168

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Krishnamurti TN (1985) Review summer monsoon experiment—a review. Mon Weather Rev 113:1590

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Krishnamurti TN, Bhalme HN (1976) Oscillations of a monsoon system. Part I. Observational aspects. J Atmos Sci 33:1939–1953

    Google Scholar 

  • Parthasarathy B, Sontakke NA, Munot AA, Kothawale DR (1987) Drought/floods in summer monsoon season over different meteorological subdivisions of India for the period 1871–1984. J Clim 1:57–70

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Parthasarathy B, Rupa Kumar K, Kothawale DR (1992) Indian summer monsoon indices; 1871–1990. Meteorol Mag 121:174–186

    Google Scholar 

  • Parthasarathy B, Munot AA, Kothawale DR (1995) Monthly and seasonal rainfall series for all-India, homogeneous regions and meteorological subdivisions: 1871–1994, I.I.T.M. Pune research report No. RR-065

  • Pokhrel S, Chaudhari HS, Saha SK, Dhakate A, Yadav RK, Salunke K, Mahapatra S, Rao SA (2012) ENSO, IOD and Indian summer Monsoon in NCEP climate forecast system. Clim Dyn 39:2143–2165. doi:10.1007/s00382-012-1349-5

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rajeevan M, Pai DS, Anil Kumar R, Lal B (2006) New statistical models for long-range forecasting of southwest monsoon rainfall over India. Clim Dyn. doi:10.1007/s00382-006-0197-6

    Google Scholar 

  • Rajeevan M, Gadgil S, Bhate J (2010) Active and break spells of the Indian summer monsoon. J Earth Syst Sci 3:229–247

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rao YP (1976) Southwest monsoon. India Meteorological Department, New Delhi, p 376

    Google Scholar 

  • Rao KG, Goswami BN (1988) Interannual variations of sea surface temperature over the Arabian Sea and the Indian monsoon: a new perspective. Mon Weather Rev 116:558–568

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Roxy M, Tanimoto Y (2007) Role of SST over the Indian Ocean in influencing the intraseasonal variability of the Indian summer monsoon. J Meteorol Soc Jpn 85(3):349–358

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Roxy M, Tanimoto Y, Preethi B, Terray P, krishnan R (2013) Intraseasonal SST precipitation relationship and its spatial variability over the tropical summer monsoon region. Clim Dyn 41:45–61. doi:10.1007/s00382-012-1547-1

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Saji NH, Goswami BN, Vinayachantran PN, Yamagata T (1999) A dipole mode in the tropical Indian Ocean. Nature 401:360–363

    Google Scholar 

  • Shukla J, Misra BM (1977) Relationship between sea surface temperature and wind speed over the central Arabian Sea, and monsoon rainfall over India. Mon Weather Rev 105:998–1002

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Vinayachandran P, Francis PA, Suryachandra AR (2009) Indian Ocean dipole: processes and impacts, Indian Academy of Sciences (Special volume on current trends in Sciences)

  • Webster PJ, Magana VO, Palmer TN, Shukla J, Tomas RA, Yanai M, Yasunari T (1998) Monsoons: processes, predictability, and the prospects for prediction. J Geophys Res 103(c7):14451–14510

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgments

The authors are thankful to Prof. B. N. Goswami, Director, Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), Pune for providing the necessary facilities for this study. The authors are also grateful to NOAA for SST and wind data and India Meteorological Department for rainfall data.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune, 411008, India

    D. R. Kothawale & J. R. Kulkarni

Authors
  1. D. R. Kothawale
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. J. R. Kulkarni
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to D. R. Kothawale.

Additional information

Responsible Editor: B. Ahrens.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Kothawale, D.R., Kulkarni, J.R. Performance of August–September Indian monsoon rainfall when June–July rainfall is reported as being in deficit/excess. Meteorol Atmos Phys 127, 147–161 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00703-014-0353-1

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00703-014-0353-1

Keywords

Search

Navigation