Abstract
This paper aims to describe the Italian PHEnology Network (IPHEN), a cooperative project started in 2006 with the aim of producing nationwide maps of analysis and forecast of plants phenological stages mainly used to satisfy the needs of agriculture, health and environmental care. Iphen is a data processing system composed of the following main segments (a) collection of atmospheric and phenological data, (b) processing of data with suitable phenological and geo-statistical models and (c) phenological maps of analysis and forecast. In more detail, IPHEN maps of analysis (featuring phenological stages reached at the date of processing) are produced with models based on a Normal Heat Hours approach which weighs hourly air temperature effectiveness for plant phenological progression applied to national grids of hourly temperature derived from the operational agro-meteorological network of CRA-CMA. A correction scheme based on phenological surveys provided by volunteer observers is applied to the first guess maps of analysis to obtain final maps. Forecast maps (prediction of the days of occurrence of relevant phenological stages) are produced on the basis of GFS model medium range forecasts and climatic data. Freeware IPHEN maps for grapevine, common and Arizona cypress, black elder, olive and locust trees are broadcasted weekly on the CRA-CMA website. The positive operational results of IPHEN are testified by 150 maps broadcasted during the 2011 season for the above-mentioned species. The system performances and reliability have been analysed focusing on the analysis of phenological simulation errors and on the sensitivity of phenological maps to anomalous atmospheric circulation patterns. The error analysis shows that phenological models are characterized by advances/delays that justify the adoption of an observation based correction scheme. The sensitivity analysis highlights that the system is responsive to the effects of circulation blocking systems leading to phenological advances and delays.
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Notes
The phenologists currently involved in IPHEN belong to Italian Universities, the Agricultural Research Council (CRA), the National Research Council (CNR), regional and local agrometeorological services, agricultural extension services, local health authorities (ASL), regional agencies for prevention and environment (ARPA), the Italian Association of Aerobiology (AIA) and the Italian Agrometeorological Association (AIAM). The operation of the project is granted by a research team from CRA-CMA (research unit for Climatology and Meteorology applied to Agriculture of CRA) and by the Università degli Studi di Milano. All the phenological observers take part in the project on a voluntary basis.
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Acknowledgments
This research was produced under the Agroscenari project (http://www.agroscenari.it/), funded by the Italian Ministry of agriculture, food and forestry. IPHEN is a network of people belonging to universities, research institutions and services that for many aims are interested in phenological monitoring and modelling. We wish to thank all people who took part in phenological activities. The complete list of observers is available on the project website: http://www.cra-cma.it/iphen/partecipanti.html. We wish to thank Dr. Marina Olwen Fogarty for the final revision of the English syntax.
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Mariani, L., Alilla, R., Cola, G. et al. IPHEN—a real-time network for phenological monitoring and modelling in Italy. Int J Biometeorol 57, 881–893 (2013). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-012-0615-x
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-012-0615-x