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An approach to the assessment of risk from chronic radiation to populations of European lobster, Homarus gammarus (L.)

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Abstract

The basic principles underlying a four-discrete age group, logistic, growth model for the European lobster Homarus gammarus are presented and discussed at proof-of-concept level. The model considers reproduction, removal by predation, natural death, fishing, radiation and migration. Non-stochastic effects of chronic low linear energy transfer (LET) radiation are modelled with emphasis on 99Tc, using three endpoints: repairable radiation damage, impairment of reproductive ability and, at higher dose rates, mortality. An allometric approach for the calculation of LD50/30 as a function of the mass of each life stage is used in model calibration. The model predicts that at a dose rate of 1 Gy day−1, lobster population reproduction and survival become severely compromised, leading eventually to population extinction. At 0.01 Gy day−1, the survival rate of an isolated population is reduced by 10%, mainly through loss of fecundity, comparable to natural migration losses. Fishing is the main ecological stress and only dose rates in the range 0.03–0.1 Gy day−1 can achieve discernible effects above it. On the balance of radiation and other ecological stresses, a benchmark value of 0.01 Gy day−1 is proposed for the protection of lobster populations. This value appears consistent with available information on radiation effects in wildlife.

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Acknowledgments

The authors wish to acknowledge the Nuclear Decommissioning Authority (NDA, UK) for financial support (Project Ref. CJ000090). The authors would also like to thank Drs. Tatiana Sazykina and Alexander Kryshev from the Scientific Association Typhoon (Obninsk, Russia) for assistance in radiation modelling parameterization, Dr. Isao Kawaguchi of the National Institute of Radiological Sciences (Chiba, Japan) for useful advice on population modelling, and Dominic Boothroyd and Jacob Scolding of the National Lobster Hatchery (Padstow, UK) for information on lobster larva survival rates.

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  1. Westlakes Scientific Consulting Ltd., The Princess Royal Building, Westlakes Science and Technology Park, Moor Row, Cumbria, CA24 3LN, UK

    Jordi Vives i Batlle, R. C. Wilson, S. J. Watts, P. McDonald, S. R. Jones & S. M. Vives-Lynch

  2. Nuclear Decommissioning Authority, Herdus House, Westlakes Science and Technology Park, Moor Row, Cumbria, CA24 3HU, UK

    A. Craze

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  1. Jordi Vives i Batlle
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Vives i Batlle, J., Wilson, R.C., Watts, S.J. et al. An approach to the assessment of risk from chronic radiation to populations of European lobster, Homarus gammarus (L.). Radiat Environ Biophys 49, 67–85 (2010). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00411-009-0251-y

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