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Potential role of the February–March Southern Annular Mode on the Indian summer monsoon rainfall: a new perspective

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Abstract

Relationship between the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) and the India summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) has been examined based on the data period 1949–2013. While the entire data period indicates a significant increasing trend in SAM, recent decades 1983–2013 indicate no trend. The relationship between the two strengthened considerably since 1983. Results reveal that the February–March SAM is significantly related with the subsequent ISMR. A positive (negative) SAM during February–March is favorable (unfavorable) for the ensuing summer monsoon rainfall over the Indian sub-continent. The delayed response is relayed through the central Pacific Ocean. We propose a hypothesis that states: when a negative (positive) phase of February–March SAM occurs, it gives rise to an anomalous meridional circulation in a longitudinally locked air–sea coupled system over the central Pacific that persists up to the subsequent boreal summer and propagates from the sub-polar latitudes to the equatorial latitudes inducing a warming (cooling) effect over the central equatorial Pacific region. In turn, this effect concomitantly weakens (strengthens) the monsoon rainfall over the Indian sub-continent. Thus, the February–March SAM could possibly serve as a new precursor to foreshadow the subsequent behavior of the Indian summer monsoon.

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Acknowledgments

Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM) is fully supported by Ministry of Earth Sciences, Govt. of India. The authors wish to acknowledge the support of M. Rajeevan, Director, for providing all the facilities at IITM. Authors are also grateful to NCEP-NCAR, NOAA and NASA for providing the atmospheric, ocean and precipitation datasets respectively. Figures are prepared using GrADS. The comments and suggestions of two anonymous reviewers are appreciated.

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  1. Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Dr. Homi Bhaba Road, Pune, 411 008, India

    Amita Prabhu, R. H. Kripalani, B. Preethi & G. Pandithurai

  2. International CLIVAR Monsoon Project Office, Pune, India

    R. H. Kripalani

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  1. Amita Prabhu
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Prabhu, A., Kripalani, R.H., Preethi, B. et al. Potential role of the February–March Southern Annular Mode on the Indian summer monsoon rainfall: a new perspective. Clim Dyn 47, 1161–1179 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2894-5

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