Skip to main content

Advertisement

SpringerLink
Log in

Deciphering the desiccation trend of the South Asian monsoon hydroclimate in a warming world

  • Published:
Climate Dynamics Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

Rising propensity of precipitation extremes and concomitant decline of summer-monsoon rains are amongst the most distinctive hydroclimatic signals that have emerged over South Asia since 1950s. A clear understanding of the underlying causes driving these monsoon hydroclimatic signals has remained elusive. Using a state-of-the-art global climate model with high-resolution zooming over South Asia, we demonstrate that a juxtaposition of regional land-use changes, anthropogenic-aerosol forcing and the rapid warming signal of the equatorial Indian Ocean is crucial to produce the observed monsoon weakening in recent decades. Our findings also show that this monsoonal weakening significantly enhances occurrence of localized intense precipitation events, as compared to the global-warming response. A 21st century climate projection using the same high-resolution model indicates persistent decrease of monsoonal rains and prolongation of soil drying. Critical value-additions from this study include (1) realistic simulation of the mean and long-term historical trends in the Indian monsoon rainfall (2) robust attributions of changes in moderate and heavy precipitation events over Central India (3) a 21st century projection of drying trend of the South Asian monsoon. The present findings have profound bearing on the regional water-security, which is already under severe hydrological-stress.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5
Fig. 6
Fig. 7
Fig. 8
Fig. 9
Fig. 10
Fig. 11
Fig. 12

Similar content being viewed by others

Notes

  1. There were 25 cases of monsoon droughts during 1871–2014 corresponding to the years 1873, 1877, 1899, 1901, 1904, 1905, 1911, 1918, 1920, 1941, 1951, 1965, 1966, 1968, 1972, 1974, 1979, 1982, 1985, 1986, 1987, 2002, 2004, 2009 and 2014. A monsoon-drought over India is defined when the AISMR deficiency exceeds one standard-deviation of long-term climatological mean. The June to September climatological seasonal total of AISMR is 848 mm and the standard-deviation is about 10 % of the mean (see http://www.tropmet.res.in).

  2. The high-resolution LMDZ4 simulations with zooming over South Asia are computationally intensive and time-consuming. Therefore, the HIST1_GHG and HIST1_PIGHG time-slice simulations across different decades were performed in parallel.

References

  • Abish B, Joseph PV, Johannessen OM (2013) Weakening trend of the tropical easterly jet stream of the boreal summer monsoon season 1950–2009. J Clim 26:9408–9414

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Adler RF et al (2003) The Version 2 Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) monthly precipitation analysis (1979-present). J Hydrometeorol 4:1147–1167

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Allan R, Ansell T (2006) A new global complete monthly historical gridded mean sea level pressure dataset (HadSLP2): 1850–2004. J Clim 19:5816–5842

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Alory G, Meyers G (2009) Warming of the upper equatorial Indian Ocean and changes in the heat budget (1960–99). J Clim 22:93–113

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Annamalai H, Hamilton K, Sperber KR (2007) The South Asian summer monsoon and its relationship with ENSO in the IPCC AR4 simulations. J Clim 20:1071–1092

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Pai DS, Sridhar L, Badwaik, MR, Rajeevan M (2014) Analysis of the daily rainfall events over India using a new long period (1901–2010) high resolution (0.25° × 0.25°) gridded rainfall dataset. Clim Dyn. doi:10.1007/s00382-014-2307-1

  • Bollasina MA, Ming Y, Ramaswamy V (2011) Anthropogenic aerosols and the weakening of the South Asian summer monsoon. Science 334:502–505

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bony S, Bellon G, Klocke D, Sherwood S, Fermepin S, Denvil S (2013) Robust direct effect of carbon dioxide on tropical circulation and regional precipitation. Nat Geosci 6:447–451

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bookhagen B, Burbank DW (2010) Toward a complete Himalayan hydrological budget: spatiotemporal distribution of snowmelt and rainfall and their impact on river discharge. J Geophys Res 115:F03019. doi:10.1029/2009JF001426

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Charney JG (1975) Dynamics of deserts and droughts in the Sahel. Q J R Meteorol Soc 101:193–202

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chaturvedi RK, Joshi J, Jayaraman M, Bala G, Ravindranath NH (2012) Multi-model climate change projections for India under representative concentration pathways. Curr Sci 103:791–802

    Google Scholar 

  • Cherchi A, Alessandri A, Masina S, Navarra A (2011) Effects of increased CO2 on monsoons. Clim Dyn 37:83–101

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Choudhury AD, Krishnan R (2011) Dynamical response of the South Asian monsoon trough to latent heating from stratiform and convective precipitation. J Atmos Sci 68:1347–1363

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chung CE, Ramanathan V (2006) Weakening of North Indian SST gradients and the monsoon rainfall in India and the Sahel. J Clim 19:2036–2045

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cleveland WS, Devlin SJ (1988) Locally weighted regression: an approach to regression analysis by local fitting. J Am Stat Assoc 83:596–610

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cowan T, Cai W (2011) The impact of Asian and non-Asian anthropogenic aerosols on 20th century Asian summer monsoon. Geophys Res Lett 38:L11703. doi:10.1029/2011GL047268

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Deandreis C, Balkanski Y, Dufresne JL, Cozic A (2012) Radiative forcing estimates of sulfate aerosols in coupled climate-chemistry models with emphasis on the role of the temporal variability. Atmos Chem Phys 12:5583–5602

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Douville H, Royer J-F, Polcher J, Cox P, Gedney N, Stephenson DB, Valdes PJ (2000) Impact of doubling CO2 on the Asian summer monsoon: robust versus model-dependent responses. J Meteorol Soc Jpn 78:421–439

    Google Scholar 

  • Dufresne JL et al (2013) Climate change projections using the IPSL-CM5 Earth System Model: from CMIP3 to CMIP5. Clim Dyn 40:2123–2165

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Emanuel KA (1993) A cumulus representation based on the episodic mixing model: the importance of mixing and microphysics in predicting humidity. AMS Meteorol Monographs 24(46):185–192

    Google Scholar 

  • Fan F, Mann ME, Lee S, Evans JL (2010) Observed and modeled changes in the South Asian monsoon over the historical period. J Clim 23:5193–5205

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Flint EP, Richards JF (1991) Historical analysis of changes in land use and carbon stock of vegetation in South and Southeast Asia. Can J For Res 21:91–110

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ganguly D, Rasch PJ, Wang H, Yoon J (2012) Fast and slow responses of the South Asian monsoon system to anthropogenic aerosols. Geophys Res Lett 39:L18804. doi:10.1029/2012GL053043

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gautam R, Hsu NC, Lau KM, Kafatos M (2009) Aerosol and rainfall variability over the Indian region: distributions, trends and coupling. Ann Geophys 27:3691–3703

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Giannini A, Saravanan R, Chang P (2003) Oceanic forcing of Sahel rainfall on interannual to interdecadal time scales. Science 302:1027–1030

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Goswami BN, Venugopal V, Sengupta D, Madhusoodanan MS, Xavier PK (2006) Increasing trend of extreme rain events over India in a warming environment. Science 314:1442–1445

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Guhathakurta P, Rajeevan M (2008) Trends in the rainfall pattern over India. Int J Climatol 28:1453–1469

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Guo L, Turner AG, Highwood EJ (2015) Impacts of 20th century aerosol emissions on the South Asian monsoon in the CMIP5 models. Atmos Chem Phys 15:6367–6378

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hasson S, Lucarini V, Pascale S (2013) Hydrological cycle over South and Southeast Asian river basins as simulated by PCMDI/CMIP3 experiments. Earth Syst Dyn 4:199–217

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • He J, Soden BJ, Kirtman BP (2014) The robustness of the atmospheric circulation and precipitation response to future anthropogenic surface warming. Geophys Res Lett 41:2614–2622

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hourdin F et al (2006) The LMDZ4 general circulation model: climate performance and sensitivity to parameterized physics with emphasis on tropical convection. Clim Dyn 27:787–813

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hsu PC, Li T, Luo JJ, Murakami H, Kitoh A, Zhao M (2012) Increase of global monsoon area and precipitation under global warming: a robust signal? Geophys Res Lett 39:L0670. doi:10.1029/2012GL051037

    Google Scholar 

  • Hurtt GC et al (2011) Harmonization of land-use scenarios for the period 1500–2100: 600 years of global gridded annual land-use transitions, wood harvest, and resulting secondary lands. Clim Change 109:117–161

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Joseph PV, Sabin TP (2008) An ocean–atmosphere interaction mechanism for the active—break cycle of the Asian summer monsoon. Clim Dyn 30:553–566

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Joseph PV, Simon A (2005) Weakening trend of the southwest monsoon current through peninsular India from 1950 to the present. Curr Sci 89:687–694

    Google Scholar 

  • Kale V (2010) The Western Ghat: the great escarpment of India. In: Migon P (eds) Geomorphological landscapes of the world. Springer, Netherlands, pp 257–264

  • Kistler R et al (2001) The NCEP-NCAR 50-year reanalysis: monthly means CD-ROM and documentation. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 82:247–267

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kitoh A, Yukimoto S, Noda A, Motoi T (1997) Simulated changes in the Asian summer monsoon at times of increased atmospheric CO2. J Met Soc Jpn 75:1019–1031

    Google Scholar 

  • Kitoh A et al (2013) Monsoons in a changing world: a regional perspective in a global context. J Geophys Res (Atmos) 118:3053–3065

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Koster RD et al (2004) Regions of strong coupling between soil moisture and precipitation. Science 305:1138–1140

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Krinner S et al (2005) A dynamic global vegetation model for studies of the coupled atmosphere-biosphere system. Glob Biogeochem Cycles 19(1):GB1015. doi:10.1029/2003GB002199

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kripalani RH, Oh JH, Kulkarni A, Sabade SS, Chaudhari HS (2007) South Asian summer monsoon precipitation variability: coupled model simulations and projections under IPCC AR4. Theor Appl Climatol 90:133–159

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Krishnamurti TN, Bhalme HN (1976) Oscillations of a monsoon system. Part I: observational aspects. J Atmos Sci 33:1937–1954

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Krishnamurti TN, Thomas A, Simon A, Kumar V (2010) Desert air incursions, an overlooked aspect, for the dry spells of the Indian summer monsoon. J Atmos Sci 67:3423–3441

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Krishnamurti TN, Martin A, Krishnamurti R, Simon A, Thomas A, Kumar V (2013) Impacts of enhanced CCN on the organization of convection and recent reduced counts of monsoon depressions. Clim Dyn 41:117–134

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Krishnan R, Ramanathan V (2002) Evidence of surface cooling from absorbing aerosols. Geophy Res Lett. doi:10.1029/2002GL014687

    Google Scholar 

  • Krishnan R, Zhang C, Sugi M (2000) Dynamics of breaks in the Indian summer monsoon. J Atmos Sci 57:1354–1372

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Krishnan R, Ramesh KV, Samala BK, Meyers G, Slingo JM, Fennessy MJ (2006) Indian Ocean-Monsoon coupled interactions and impending monsoon droughts. Geophys Res Lett 33:L08711. doi:10.1029/2006GL025811

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Krishnan R, Kumar Vinay, Sugi M, Yoshimura J (2009) Internal feedbacks from monsoon–midlatitude interactions during droughts in the Indian summer monsoon. J Atmos Sci 66:553–578

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Krishnan R et al (2013) Will the South Asian monsoon overturning circulation stabilize any further? Clim Dyn 40:187–211

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kumar KN, Rajeevan M, Pai DS, Srivastava AK, Preethi B (2013) On the observed variability of monsoon droughts over India. Weather Clim Extrem 1:42–50

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lau WKM, Wu HT, Kim KM (2013) A canonical response of precipitation characteristics to global warming from CMIP5 models. Geophys Res Lett 40:3163–3316

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lean J (2009) http://www.geo.fu-berlin.de/en/met/ag/strat/forschung/SOLARIS/Inputdata

  • Lelieveld J et al (2002) Global air pollution crossroads over the Mediterranean. Science 298:794–799

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lenton TM et al (2008) Tipping elements in the Earth’s climate system. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 105:1786–1793

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Manabe S, Delworth T (1990) The temporal variability of soil wetness and its impact on climate. Clim Change 16:185–192

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • May W (2011) The sensitivity of the Indian summer monsoon to a global warming of 2 C with respect to pre-industrial times. Clim Dyn 37(9–10):1843–1868

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Meehl GA, Arblaster JM (2003) Mechanisms for projected future changes in South Asian monsoon precipitation. Clim Dyn 21:659–675

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Meehl GA, Arblaster JM, Collins WD (2008) Effects of black carbon aerosols on the Indian monsoon. J Clim 21:2869–2882

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mishra V, Smoliak BV, Lettenmaier DP, Wallace JM (2012) A prominent pattern of year-to-year variability in Indian summer monsoon rainfall. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 109:7213–7217

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rajeevan M, De US, Prasad RK (2000) Decadal variability of sea surface temperature, cloudiness and monsoon depressions in the north Indian Ocean. Curr Sci 79:283–285

    Google Scholar 

  • Rajeevan M, Bhate J, Jaswal AK (2008) Analysis of variability and trends of extreme rainfall events over India using 104 years of gridded daily rainfall data. Geophys Res Lett 35:L18707. doi:10.1029/2008GL035143

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rajendran K, Kitoh A, Srinivasan J, Mizuta R, Krishnan R (2012) Monsoon circulation interaction with Western Ghats orography under changing climate: projection by a 20-km mesh AGCM. Theor Appl Climatol 110(4):555–571

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ramanathan V et al (2005) Atmospheric brown clouds: impacts on South Asian climate and hydrological cycle. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 102:5326–5533

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ramankutty N et al (2006) Global land-cover change: recent progress, remaining challenges. In: Lambin EF, Geist H (eds) land-use and land-cover change—local processes and global impacts. Springer, Berlin, pp 9–39

    Chapter  Google Scholar 

  • Ramarao MVS, Krishnan R, Sanjay J, Sabin TP (2015) Understanding land surface response to changing South Asian monsoon in a warming climate. Earth Syst Dyn Discuss. 6:1–34. doi:10.5194/esdd-6-1-2015. www.earth-syst-dynam-discuss.net/6/1/2015/

  • Ramesh Kumar MR, Krishnan R, Syam S, Unnikrishnan AS, Pai DS (2009) Increasing trend of ‘break-monsoon’ conditions over India—role of ocean–atmosphere processes in the Indian Ocean. IEEE Geosci Rem Sens Lett 6:332–336

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rao BRS, Rao DVB, Rao VB (2004) Decreasing trend in the strength of the tropical easterly jet during the Asian summer monsoon season and the number of tropical cyclonic systems over Bay of Bengal. Geophys Res Lett 31:L14103. doi:10.1029/2004GL019817

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rayner NA et al (2003) Global analyses of sea surface temperature, sea ice, and night marine air temperature since the late nineteenth century. J Geophys Res 108:D144407. doi:10.1029/2002JD002670

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rodell M, Velicogna I, Famiglietti JS (2009) Satellite-based estimates of groundwater depletion in India. Nature 460:999–1003

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Roehrig R et al (2013) The present and future of the West African monsoon: a process-oriented assessment of CMIP5 simulations along the AMMA transect. J Clim 26:6471–6505

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Romatschke U, Houze RA Jr (2011) Characteristics of precipitating convective systems in the South Asian monsoon. J Hydrometeor 12:3–26

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Roxy MK et al (2015) Drying of Indian subcontinent by rapid Indian Ocean warming and a weakening land-sea thermal gradient. Nature Communications 6:7423

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sabade SS, Kulkarni A, Kripalani RH (2011) Projected changes in South Asian summer monsoon by multi-model global warming experiments. Theor Appl Climatol 103(3–4):543–565

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sabin TP et al (2013) High resolution simulation of the South Asian monsoon using a variable resolution global climate model. Clim Dyn 41:173–194

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sadourny R, Laval K (1984) January and July performance of the LMD general circulation model. New Perspectives in Climate Modelling. Eds. Berger A, Nicolis C Elsevier Science Publishers, Amsterdam, 173-197

  • Saha A, Ghosh S, Sahana AS, Rao EP (2014) Failure of CMIP5 climate models in simulating post-1950 decreasing trend of Indian monsoon. Geophys Res Lett 41:7323–7330

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Salzmann M, Weser H, Cherian R (2014) Robust response of Asian summer monsoon to anthropogenic aerosols in CMIP5 models. J Geophys Res 119:11321–11337

    Google Scholar 

  • Sanap SD, Pandithurai G, Manoj MG (2015) On the response of Indian summer monsoon to aerosol forcing in CMIP5 model simulations. Clim Dyn. doi:10.1007/s00382-015-2516-2

    Google Scholar 

  • Santer BD et al (2008) Consistency of modelled and observed temperature trends in the tropical troposphere. Int J Climatol 28:1703–1722

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sathiyamoorthy V (2005) Large scale reduction in the size of the tropical easterly jet. Geophys Res Lett 32:L14802. doi:10.1029/2005GL022956

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Semazzi FHM, Mehta V, Sud YC (1988) An investigation of the relationship between sub-Saharan rainfall and global sea surface temperatures. Atmos Ocean 26:118–138

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Seneviratne SI et al (2010) Investigating soil moisture–climate interactions in a changing climate: a review. Earth Sci Rev 99:125–161

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sharmila S, Joseph S, Sahai AK, Abhilash S, Chattopadhyay R (2015) Future projection of Indian summer monsoon variability under climate change scenario: an assessment from CMIP5 climate models. Glob Planet Change 124:62–78

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Singh D, Tsiang M, Rajaratnam B, Diffenbaugh NS (2014) Observed changes in extreme wet and dry spells during the South Asian summer monsoon season. Nat Clim Change 4:456–461

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sinha A et al (2015) Trends and oscillations in the Indian summer monsoon rainfall over the last two millennia. Nat Commun. doi:10.1038/ncomms7309

    Google Scholar 

  • Stano G, Krishnamurti TN, Vijaya Kumar TSV, Chakraborty A (2002) Hydrometeor structure of a composite monsoon depression using the TRMM radar. Tellus 54A:370–381

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Stevens B, Feingold G (2009) Untangling aerosol effects on clouds and precipitation in a buffered system. Nature 461:607–613

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Swapna P, Krishnan R, Wallace JM (2014) Indian Ocean and monsoon coupled interactions in a warming environment. Clim Dyn 42:2439–2454

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Szopa S et al (2013) Aerosol and ozone changes as forcing for climate evolution between 1850 and 2100. Clim Dyn 40:2223–2250

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Thornthwaite CW (1948) An approach toward a rational classification of climate. Geogr Rev 38:55–94

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tiedtke M (1989) A comprehensive mass flux scheme for cumulus parameterization in large-scale models. Mon Weather Rev 117:1179–1800

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Toreti A et al (2013) Projections of global changes in precipitation extremes from coupled model intercomparison project phase 5 models. Geophys Res Lett. doi:10.1002/grl.50940

    Google Scholar 

  • Turner AG, Annamalai H (2012) Climate Change and the South Asian summer monsoon. Nat Clim Change 2:587–595

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Turner AG, Hannachi A (2010) Is there regime behavior in monsoon convection in the late 20th century? Geophys Res Lett 37:L16706. doi:10.1029/2010GL044159

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Turner AG, Slingo JM (2009) Uncertainties in future projections of extreme precipitation in the Indian monsoon region. Atmos Sci Lett 10:152–168

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ueda H, Iwai A, Kuwako K, Hori ME (2006) Impact of anthropogenic forcing on the Asian summer monsoon as simulated by eight GCMs. Geophys Res Lett 33:L06703. doi:10.1029/2005GL025336

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Veechi GA, Soden BJ, Wittenberg AT, Held IM, Leetma A, Harrison MJ (2006) Weakening of tropical Pacific atmospheric circulation due to anthropogenic forcing. Nature 441:73–76

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Vellore RK, Krishnan R, Pendharkar J, Choudhury AD, Sabin TP (2014) On the anomalous precipitation enhancement over the Himalayan foothills during monsoon breaks. Clim Dyn. doi:10.1007/s00382-013-2024-1

    Google Scholar 

  • Vicente-Serrano SM, Begueria S, Lopez-Moreno JI (2010) A multiscalar drought index sensitive to global warming. The Standardized Evapotranspiration Index. J Clim 23:1696–1718

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wang B, Yim S-Y, Lee J-Y, Liu J, Ha K-J (2014) Future change of Asian-Australian monsoon under RCP4.5 anthropogenic warming scenario. Clim Dyn 42:83–100

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Xie SP, Saji NH, Wang Y (2006) Role of narrow mountains in large-scale organization of Asian monsoon convection. J Clim 19:3420–3429

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Yatagai A, Kamiguchi K, Arakawa O, Hamada A, Yasutomi N, Kitoh A (2012) APRHODITE: constructing a long-term daily gridded precipitation dataset for Asia based on a dense network of rain gauges. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 93:1401–1415

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zickfeld K, Knopf B, Petoukhov V, Schellnhuber HJ (2005) Is the Indian summer monsoon stable against global change. Geophys Res Lett 32:L15707. doi:10.1029/2005GL022771

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgments

The LMDZ4 simulations were performed on the IITM HPC. We thank Director, IITM for extending full support for this research. IITM receives full support from the Ministry of Earth Sciences, Government of India. We acknowledge Josefine Ghattas and Sebastien Denvil from LMD/IPSL for computational support and M. V. S. Ramarao, CCCR for analysis and technical support. We thank the Editor Prof. Jean-Claude Duplessy and the anonymous reviewers for providing constructive comments. This work is partly supported by the NORINDIA Project 216576/e10.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Centre for Climate Change Research (CCCR), Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), Pune, India

    R. Krishnan, T. P. Sabin, R. Vellore, M. Mujumdar, J. Sanjay & B. N. Goswami

  2. Indian Institute of Science, Education and Research (IISER), Pune, India

    B. N. Goswami

  3. Laboratoire Meteorologie Dynamique, (LMD/IPSL), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Université Pierre et Marie Curie (UPMC)/ENS/Ecole Polytechnique, Paris, France

    F. Hourdin & J.-L. Dufresne

  4. LOCEAN Laboratory, Sorbonne Universités (UPMC, Univ Paris 06)-CNRS-IRD-MNHN, 4 Place Jussieu, 75005, Paris, France

    P. Terray

  5. Indo-French Cell for Water Sciences, IISc-NIO-IITM–IRD Joint International Laboratory, IITM, Pune, India

    P. Terray

Authors
  1. R. Krishnan
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. T. P. Sabin
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. R. Vellore
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. M. Mujumdar
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  5. J. Sanjay
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  6. B. N. Goswami
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  7. F. Hourdin
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  8. J.-L. Dufresne
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  9. P. Terray
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to R. Krishnan.

Electronic supplementary material

Below is the link to the electronic supplementary material.

Auxiliary Figure A1

Time-series of year-wise count of heavy rainfall events (intensity ≥ 100 mm day −1) over Central India (74.5°E–86.5°E, 16.5°N–26.5°N). The counts are for the June–September monsoon season from 1951–2005 based on IMD observations (black line), HIST1 (brown solid line), HIST2 (brown dashed line), HISTNAT1 (blue solid line) and HISTNAT2 (blue dashed line). The linear least-square trends and their statistical significance are presented in Table 4. (EPS 609 kb)

Auxiliary Figure A2

Difference maps of precipitation (mm day −1 , shaded) and 850 hPa winds (ms −1 , vectors) (a) RCP4.5 minus HISTNAT1 (b) RCP4.5 minus HIST1. The mean of RCP4.5 is for the period 2006-2060. For HIST1 and HISTNAT1, the means are for the period 1951-2005. Note the persistence of weak SAM circulation and rainfall anomalies in the RCP4.5 projection. (EPS 3197 kb)

Auxiliary Figure A3

Tropospheric temperature (TT) and circulation response to anthropogenic influence: Map showing the difference in JJAS mean of TT (°C) and tropospheric circulation (vectors: ms−1) between HIST1 and HISTNAT1 for the period (1951-2005). The temperature and wind fields are vertically averaged between 600 and 200 hPa. Note that the TT response over the near-equatorial areas is warmer as compared to that of the extra-tropics (poleward of 30°N). The cyclonic circulation anomaly over West-Central Asia is associated with cold air advection and subsidence over the Indian subcontinent. The anticyclonic circulation anomaly over the Indian region indicates weakening of the SAM circulation. (EPS 3202 kb)

Auxiliary Figure A4

Climatological mean monsoon rainfall and 850 hPa winds from observations/reanalysis, LMDZ4 high-resolution simulations, IPSL-CM5A models. a, GPCP and NCEP b, HIST1 c, HIST2 d, IPSL-CM5A-MR e, IPSL-CM5A-LR. The means are for the period 1951-2005, except for GPCP rainfall which is for the period 1979-2009. Notice the severe underestimation of monsoon winds and precipitation, particularly over the Western Ghats in the IPSL-CM5A models. (EPS 4950 kb)

Auxiliary Figure A5

Coupled variability of monsoon precipitation and low-level winds in observations and simulations. The first empirical orthogonal function (EOF1) of JJAS precipitation over western Ghats and west-central peninsular India for the period 1941-2005 from (a) Observations (b) HIST1 (c) IPSL-CM5-LR (d, e, f) corresponding principal component (PC1) time-series (g, h, i) Pattern obtained by regressing the 850 hPa winds over the Arabian Sea upon the PC1 time-series of rainfall. Note the decreasing trend of PC1 time-series in observations and HIST1 high-resolution simulation, but not in the IPSL-CM5-LR model. Consistent with the decreasing trend of PC1, the regression pattern of westerly winds indicate weakening of the monsoon flow in NCEP reanalysis and HIST1. In contrast, note that the wind variations in the IPSL-CM5-LR are anti-correlated with the increasing trend of PC1 time-series as seen from the easterly anomaly. (EPS 333 kb)

Auxiliary Figure A6

Spatial map of projected future changes in the seasonal monsoon rainfall. Least-square linear trend of June–September monsoon rainfall from the RCP4.5 simulation expressed as mm day−1 (45 years)−1 (a) (2006 – 2050) (b) (2051 – 2095). Only values exceeding the 95 % confidence level are displayed. (EPS 1870 kb)

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Krishnan, R., Sabin, T.P., Vellore, R. et al. Deciphering the desiccation trend of the South Asian monsoon hydroclimate in a warming world. Clim Dyn 47, 1007–1027 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2886-5

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2886-5

Keywords

Search

Navigation