Skip to main content

Advertisement

SpringerLink
Log in

Variability and predictability of Northeast China climate during 1948–2012

  • Published:
Climate Dynamics Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

In this work, authors examine the variabilities of precipitation and surface air temperature (T2m) in Northeast China during 1948–2012, and their global connection, as well as the predictability. It is noted that both the precipitation and T2m variations in Northeast China are dominated by interannual and higher frequency variations. However, on interdecadal time scales, T2m is shifted significantly from below normal to above normal around 1987/1988. Statistically, the seasonal mean precipitation and T2m are largely driven by local internal atmospheric variability rather than remote forcing. For the precipitation variation, circulation anomalies in the low latitudes play a more important role in spring and summer than in autumn and winter. For T2m variations, the associated sea surface pressure (SLP) and 850-hPa wind (uv850) anomalies are similar for all seasons in high latitudes with significantly negative correlations for SLP and westerly wind anomaly for uv850, suggesting that a strong zonal circulation in the high latitudes favors warming in Northeast China. The predictability of precipitation and T2m in Northeast China is assessed by using the Atmospheric Model Inter-comparison Project type experiments which are forced by observed sea surface temperature (SST) and time-evolving greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations. Results suggest that T2m has slightly higher predictability than precipitation in Northeast China. To some extent, the model simulates the interdecadal shift of T2m around 1987/1988, implying a possible connection between SST (and/or GHG forcing) and surface air temperature variation in Northeast China on interdecadal time scales. Nevertheless, the precipitation and T2m variations are mainly determined by the unpredictable components which are caused by the atmospheric internal dynamic processes, suggesting low predictability for the climate variation in Northeast China.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5
Fig. 6
Fig. 7
Fig. 8
Fig. 9
Fig. 10
Fig. 11
Fig. 12
Fig. 13
Fig. 14

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Bueh CL, Shi N, Ji L et al (2008) Features of the EAP events on the medium-range evolution process and the mid- and high-latitude Rossby wave activities during then Meiyu period. Chin Sci Bull 53:111–121 (in Chinese with English abstract)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chen M, Xie P, Janowiak JE, Arkin PA (2002) Global land precipitation: a 50-year monthly analysis based on gauge observations. J Hydrometeor 3:249–266

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ding YH (1994) Monsoons over China. Kluwer Academic Publisher, London 419 pp

    Google Scholar 

  • Fan Y, van den Dool H (2008) A global monthly land surface air temperature analysis for 1948-present. J Geophys Res 113:D01103. doi:10.1029/2007JD008470

    Google Scholar 

  • Gao ZT (2007) Moisture transportation and budget over Northeast China. Scientia Geographica Sinica. 27(supp.):28–38 (in Chinese with English abstract)

    Google Scholar 

  • Hu Z-Z, Bengtsson L, Arpe K (2000) Impact of global warming on the Asian winter monsoon in a coupled GCM. J Geophys Res 105(D4):4607–4624

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hu Z–Z, Yang S, Wu R (2003) Long-term climate variations in China and global warming signals. J Geophys Res 108(19):4614. doi:10.1029/2003JD003651

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Jin F–F, Hoskins BJ (1995) The direct response to tropical heating in a baroclinic atmosphere. J Atmos Sci 52:307–319

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kalnay E, Kanamitsu M, Kistler R, Collins W et al (1996) The NCEP/NCAR 40-year reanalysis project. Bull Amer Meteor Soc 77:437–471

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kang I-S, Jin K, Wang B et al (2002) Intercomparison of the climatological variations of Asian summer monsoon precipitation simulated by 10 GCMs. Clim Dyn 19:383–395

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kumar A, Chen M, Zhang L, Wang W, Yang Y, Wen C, Marx L, Huang B (2012) An analysis of the nonstationarity in the bias of sea surface temperature forecasts for the NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFS) version 2. Mon Wea Rev 140:3003–3016

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Li J, Wu Z (2012) Importance of autumn Arctic sea ice to northern winter snowfall. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 109(28):E1899–E1990. doi:10.1073/pnas.1205075109

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lian Y, An G (1998) The relationship among El Niño, East Asia summer monsoon, and low temperature in Songliao Plains of Northeast China. J App Meteor Sci 56(6):724–735 (in Chinese with English abstract)

    Google Scholar 

  • Liang JY, Ang S, Hu Z–Z, Huang BH, Kumar A, Zhang ZQ (2009) Predictable patterns of the Asian and Indo-Pacific summer precipitation in the NCEP CFS. Clim Dyn 32:989–1001

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Liu S, Yang S, Lian Y et al (2010) Time–frequency characteristics of regional climate over Northeast China and their relationships with atmospheric circulation patterns. J Clim 23:4956–4972

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • National Research Council (2010) Assessment of Intraseasonal to Interannual Climate Prediction and Predictability, 192 PP, ISBN-10: 0-309-15183-X, the National Academies Press. Washington, DC

    Google Scholar 

  • Nitta T (1987) Convective activities in the tropical western Pacific and their impact on the Northern Hemisphere summer circulation. J Meteor Soc Japan 65:373–390

    Google Scholar 

  • Nitta T, Hu Z–Z (1996) Summer climate variability in China and its association with 500 hPa height and tropical convection. J Meteor Soc Japan 74:425–445

    Google Scholar 

  • Qian Y, Leung LR (2007) A long-term regional simulation and observations of the hydroclimate in China. J Geophys Res D112. doi:10.1029/2006JD008134

  • Saha S, Moorthi S, Pan H-L, Wu X et al (2010) The NCEP climate forecast system reanalysis. Bull Amer Meteor Soc 91:1015–1057. doi:10.1175/2010BAMS3001.1

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Saha S, Moorthi S, Wu X, Wang J, Nadiga S, Coauthors (2013) The NCEP Climate Forecast System Version 2. J Clim (revised)

  • Shen BZ, Lin ZD, Lu RY et al (2011) Circulation anomalies associated with interannual variation of early- and late-summer precipitation in Northeast China. Sci China Earth Sci 54(7):1095–1104. doi:10.1007/s11430-011-4173-6

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Smith TM, Reynolds RW, Peterson TC, Lawrimore J (2008) Improvements to NOAA’s historical merged land-ocean surface temperature analysis (1880-2006). J Clim 21:2283–2296

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sun B, Wang H (2013) Water vapor transport paths and accumulation during widespread snowfall events in Northeastern China. J Clim 26:4550–4566

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sun L, Zhen XY, Wang Q (1994) The climatological characteristics of Northeast cold vortex in China. Quart J Appl Meteor 5:297–303 (in Chinese with English abstract)

    Google Scholar 

  • Sun L, An G, Ding L, Shen BZ (2000) A climatic analysis of summer precipitation features and anomaly in Northeast China. Acta Meteorologica Sinica 58(1):70–82 (in Chinese with English abstract)

    Google Scholar 

  • Tao SY, Chen LX (1987) A review of recent research of the East Asian summer monsoon in China. CP Chang and TN Krishnamurti, Ed, Oxford Univer Press, London, Monsoon Meteorology, pp 60–92

    Google Scholar 

  • Wang S-W, Zhu H (1985) Cool summer in East Asia and El Niño. Chinese Sci Bull 17:1323–1325 (in Chinese)

    Google Scholar 

  • Wang B, Ding Q, Fu X, Kang I-S, Jin K, Shukla J, Doblas-Reyes F (2005) Fundamental challenges in simulation and prediction of summer monsoon rainfall. Geophys Res Lett 32(15):L15711. doi:10.1029/2005GL022734

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wu R, Hu Z–Z, Kirtman BP (2003) Evolution of ENSO-related rainfall anomalies in East Asia. J Clim 16(22):3742–3758

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wu R, Yang S, Liu S, Sun L, Lian Y, Gao ZT (2010) Changes in the relationship between Northeast China summer temperature and ENSO. J Geophys Res 115:D21107. doi:10.1029/2010JD014422

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wu R, Yang S, Liu S, Sun L, Lian Y, Gao ZT (2011) Northeast China summer temperature and North Atlantic SST. J Geophys Res 116:D16116. doi:10.1029/2011JD015779

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Xue Y, Chen M, Kumar A, Hu Z-Z, Wang W (2013) Prediction skill and bias of tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures in the NCEP climate forecast system version 2. J Clim 26(15): 5358–5378. doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00600.1

    Google Scholar 

  • Yang S, Lau K-M (1998) Influence of SST and ground wetness on the Asian summer monsoon. J Clim 11:3230–3246

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Yang S, Yoo S-H, Yang R, Mitchell KE, van den Dool H, Higgins W (2007) Response of seasonal simulations of a regional climate model to high-frequency variability of soil moisture during the summers of 1988 and 1993. J Hydrometeor 8: 738–757. doi:10.1175/JHM616.1

    Google Scholar 

  • Yang S, Zhang ZQ, Kousky VE, Higgins RW, Yoo S-H, Liang JY, Fan Y (2008) Simulations and seasonal prediction of the Asian summer monsoon in the NCEP Climate Forecast System. J Clim 21:3755–3775

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zhang QY, Tao SY, Chen LT (2003) The interannual variability of East Asian summer monsoon indices and its association with the pattern of general circulation over East Asia. Acta Meteor Sinica 61:559–568

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zhou T et al (2009) The CLIVAR C20C Project: which components of the Asian-Australian Monsoon circulation variations are forced and reproducible? Clim Dyn 33:1051–1068. doi:10.1007/s00382-008-0501-8

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zhu J, Shukla J (2013) The role of air-sea coupling in seasonal prediction of Asian-Pacific summer monsoon rainfall. J Clim 26 (15): 5689–5697, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00190.1

    Google Scholar 

  • Zhu Q, Lin J, Shou S, Tang D (2007) Synoptic Meteorology Principles and Methodologies, 1-649. China Meteor Press, Beijing

    Google Scholar 

  • Zhu C, Wang B, Qian W, Zhang B (2012) Recent weakening of northern East Asian summer monsoon: a possible response to global warming. Geophys Res Lett 39:L09701. doi:10.1029/2012GL051155

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgments

We thank the constructive comments and suggestions from two reviewers. We would also like to thank Emily Becker for providing GHCN_CAMS T2m data, and Mingyue Chen for providing PREC precipitation data. This work was jointly supported by the R&D Special Fund for Public Welfare Industry (Meteorology; Grant GYHY201106015), National Basic Research Program of China (Grant 2012CB955303), the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant 41275096), and Zhongshan University “985 Project” Phase 3.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Institute of Meteorological Sciences of Jilin Province, Changchun, 130062, China

    Zongting Gao & Baizhu Shen

  2. Laboratory of Research for Middle-High Latitude Circulation and East Asian Monsoon, Changchun, 130062, China

    Zongting Gao & Baizhu Shen

  3. Climate Prediction Center, NCEP/NWS/NOAA, 5830 University Research Court, College Park, MD, 20740, USA

    Zeng-Zhen Hu & Bhaskar Jha

  4. Innovim, LLC, Greenbelt, MD, USA

    Bhaskar Jha

  5. School of Environmental Science and Engineering, Sun Yat-Sen University, Guangdong, 510275, China

    Song Yang

  6. Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies, George Mason University, Fairfax, VA, USA

    Jieshun Zhu

  7. RCE-TEA, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China

    Renjian Zhang

Authors
  1. Zongting Gao
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Zeng-Zhen Hu
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Bhaskar Jha
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. Song Yang
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  5. Jieshun Zhu
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  6. Baizhu Shen
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  7. Renjian Zhang
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Zeng-Zhen Hu.

Electronic supplementary material

Below is the link to the electronic supplementary material.

Supplementary material 1 (PDF 1163 kb)

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Gao, Z., Hu, ZZ., Jha, B. et al. Variability and predictability of Northeast China climate during 1948–2012. Clim Dyn 43, 787–804 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-013-1944-0

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-013-1944-0

Keywords

Search

Navigation