Skip to main content

Advertisement

SpringerLink
Log in

Changes in extratropical storm track cloudiness 1983–2008: observational support for a poleward shift

  • Published:
Climate Dynamics Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

Climate model simulations suggest that the extratropical storm tracks will shift poleward as a consequence of global warming. In this study the northern and southern hemisphere storm tracks over the Pacific and Atlantic ocean basins are studied using observational data, primarily from the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project, ISCCP. Potential shifts in the storm tracks are examined using the observed cloud structures as proxies for cyclone activity. Different data analysis methods are employed, with the objective to address difficulties and uncertainties in using ISCCP data for regional trend analysis. In particular, three data filtering techniques are explored; excluding specific problematic regions from the analysis, regressing out a spurious viewing geometry effect, and excluding specific cloud types from the analysis. These adjustments all, to varying degree, moderate the cloud trends in the original data but leave the qualitative aspects of those trends largely unaffected. Therefore, our analysis suggests that ISCCP data can be used to interpret regional trends in cloudiness, provided that data and instrumental artefacts are recognized and accounted for. The variation in magnitude between trends emerging from application of different data correction methods, allows us to estimate possible ranges for the observational changes. It is found that the storm tracks, here represented by the extent of the midlatitude-centered band of maximum cloud cover over the studied ocean basins, experience a poleward shift as well as a narrowing over the 25 year period covered by ISCCP. The observed magnitudes of these effects are larger than in current generation climate models (CMIP3). The magnitude of the shift is particularly large in the northern hemisphere Atlantic. This is also the one of the four regions in which imperfect data primarily prevents us from drawing firm conclusions. The shifted path and reduced extent of the storm track cloudiness is accompanied by a regional reduction in total cloud cover. This decrease in cloudiness can primarily be ascribed to low level clouds, whereas the upper level cloud fraction actually increases, according to ISCCP. Independent satellite observations of radiative fluxes at the top of the atmosphere are consistent with the changes in total cloud cover. The shift in cloudiness is also supported by a shift in central position of the mid-troposphere meridional temperature gradient. We do not find support for aerosols playing a significant role in the satellite observed changes in cloudiness. The observed changes in storm track cloudiness can be related to local cloud-induced changes in radiative forcing, using ERBE and CERES radiative fluxes. The shortwave and the longwave components are found to act together, leading to a positive (warming) net radiative effect in response to the cloud changes in the storm track regions, indicative of positive cloud feedback. Among the CMIP3 models that simulate poleward shifts in all four storm track areas, all but one show decreasing cloud amount on a global mean scale in response to increased CO2 forcing, further consistent with positive cloud feedback. Models with low equilibrium climate sensitivity to a lesser extent than higher-sensitivity models simulate a poleward shift of the storm tracks.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5
Fig. 6
Fig. 7
Fig. 8

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Barkstrom BR (1984) The earth radiation budget experiment (ERBE). Bull Amer Meteor Soc 65:1170–1185

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Barkstrom BR, Smith GL (1986) The earth radiation budget experiment: science and implementation. Rev Geophys 24:379–390

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bengtsson L, Hodges KI, Roeckner E (2006) Storm tracks and climate change. J Clim 19:3518–3543

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bond TC, Bhardwaj E, Dong R, Jogani R, Jung S, Roden C, Streets DG, Fernandes S, Trautmann N (2007) Historical emissions of black and organic carbon aerosol from energy-related combustion, 1850–2000. Global Biogeochem Cycles 21:GB2018

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Brest CL, Rossow WB, Roiter M (1997) Update of radiance calibrations for ISCCP. J Atmos Ocean Tech 14:1091–1109

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Brohan P, Kennedy JJ, Harris I, Tett SFB, Jones PD (2006) Uncertainty estimates in regional and global observed temperature changes: a new dataset from 1850. J Geophys Res 111:D12106

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chang EKM, Lee S, Swanson KL (2002) Storm track dynamics. J Clim 15:2163–2183

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Clement AC, Burgman R, Norris JR (2009) Observational and model evidence for positive low-level cloud feedback. Science 325:460

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Evan AT, Heidinger AK, Vimont DJ (2007) Arguments against a physical long-term trend in global ISCCP cloud amounts. Geophys Res Lett 34:L04701

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Field PR, Wood R (2007) Precipitation and cloud structure in midlatitude cyclones. J Clim 20:233–254

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Field PR, Gettleman A, Neale RB, Wood R, Rasch PJ, Morrison H (2008) Midlatitude cyclone compositing to constrain climate model behavior using satellite obserations. J Clim 21:5887–5903

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Fischer-Bruns I, von Storch H, Gonzalez-Rouco JF, Zorita E (2005) Modelling the variability of midlatitude storm activity on decadal to century time scales. Clim Dyn 25:461–476

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Fyfe J (2003) Extratropical southern hemisphere cyclones: harbingers of climate change?. J Clim 16:2802–2805

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Geng Q, Sugi M (2003) Possible change of extratropical cyclone activity due to enhanced greenhouse gases and sulfate aerosols—study with a high-resolution AGCM. J Clim 16:2262–2274

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hall NMJ, Hoskins BJ, Valdes PJ, Senior CA (1994) Storm tracks in a high-resolution GCM with doubled carbon dioxide. Q J Royal Meteorol Soc 120:1209–1230

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hu Y, Fu Q (2007) Observed poleward expansion of the Hadley circulation since 1979. Atmos Chem Phys 7:5229–5236

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hurrell JW, Deser C (2010) North Atlantic climate variability: the role of the North Atlantic Oscillation. J Mar Syst 79:253–271

    Google Scholar 

  • IPCC (2007) Climate change 2007: the scientific basis. Contribution of working group 1 to the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. In: Solomon S, Qin D, Manning M, Chen Z, Marquis M, Averyt KB, Tignor M, Miller HL (eds) Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. p 996

  • Johanson CM, Fu Q (2009) Hadley cell widening: model simulations versus observations. J. Clim 22:2713–2725

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • King MD, Kaufman YJ, Menzel WP, Tanre D (1992) Remote sensing if cloud, aerosol, and water vapour properties from the moderate resolution imaging spectrometer (MODIS). IEEE Trans Geosci Remote Sens 30:2–27

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Knapp KR (2007) Calibration assessment of ISCCP geostationary infrared observations using HIRS. J Atmos Oceanic Technol 25:183–195

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Loeb NG, Wielicki BA, Rose FG, Doelling DR (2007) Variability in global top-of-atmosphere shortwave radiation between 2000 and 2005. Geophys Res Lett 34:L03704

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lu J, Vecchi GA, Reichler T (2007) Expansion of the Hadley cell under global warming. Geophys Res Lett 34:L06805

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Massie ST, Torres O, Smith SJ (2004) Total ozone mapping spectrometer (TOMS) observations of increases in Asian aerosol in winter from 1979 to 2000. J Geophys Res 109:D18211

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • McCabe G, Martyn CP, Serreze MC (2001) Trends in northern hemisphere surface cyclone frequency and intensity. J Clim 14:2763–2768

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Meehl GA, Covey C, Delworth T, Latif M, McAveny B, Mitchell JFB, Stouffer RJ, Taylor KE (2007) The WCRP CMIP3 multimodel dataset: a new era in climate change research. Bull Amer Meteor Soc 88:1383–1394

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Minnis P (1989) Viewing zenith angle dependence of cloudiness determined from coincident GOES east and GOES west data. J Geophys Res 94(D2):2303–2320

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Norris JR (2000) What can cloud observations tell us about climate variability?. Space Sci Rev 94:375–380

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Norris JR (2005) Multidecadal changes in near-global cloud cover and estimated cloud cover radiative forcing. J Geophys Res 110:D08206

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • O’Gorman PA (2010) Understanding the varied response of the extratropical storm tracks to climate change. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 107(45):19176–19180

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ohara T, Akimoto H, Kurokawa J, Horii N, Yamaji K, Yan X, Hayasaka T (2007) An Asian emission inventory of anthropogenic emission sources for the period 19802020. Atmos Chem Phys 7:4419–4444

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ramanathan V, Cess RD, Harrison EF, Minnis P, Barkstrom BR, Ahmad E, Hartmann D (1989) Cloud-radiative forcing and climate: results from the earth radiation budget experiment. Science 243:57–63

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rossow WB, Schiffer RA (1991) ISCCP cloud data products. Bull Amer Meteor Soc 72:2–20

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rossow WB, Schiffer RA (1999) Advances in understanding clouds from ISCCP. Bull Amer Meteor Soc 80:2261–2287

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Smith SJ, Pitcher H, Wigley TML (2001) Global and regional anthropogenic sulfur dioxide emissions. Global Planet Change 29:99–119

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Streets DG, Yu C, Wu Y, Chin M, Zhao Z, Hayasaka T, Shi G (2008) Aerosol trends over China 1980–2000. Atmos Res 88:174–182

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tselioudis G, Tromeur E, Rosow WB, Zerefos CS (2010) Decadal changes in tropical convection suggest effects on stratospheric water vapour. Geophys Res Lett 37:L14806

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tsushima Y, Emori S, Ogura T, Kimoto M, Webb MJ, Williams KD, Ringer MA, Soden BJ, Li B, Andronova N (2006) Importance of the mixed-phase cloud distribution in the control climate for assessing the response of clouds to carbon dioxide increase: a multi-model study. Clim Dyn 27:113–126

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Uppala SM et al (2005) The ERA-40 re-analysis. Q J Roy Meteor Soc 131:2961–3012

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wang XL, Swail VR, Zwiers FW (2006) Climatology and changes of extratropical cyclone activity: comparison of ERA-40 with NCEP-NCAR reanalysis for 1958–2001. J Clim 19:3145–3166

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Weaver CP, Ramanathan V (1997) Relationships between large-scale vertical velocity, static stability, and cloud radiative forcing over northern hemisphere extratropical oceans. J Clim 10:2871–2887

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wielicki BA, Barkstrom BR, Harrison EF, Lee RB III, Smith GL, Cooper JE (1996) Clouds and the earth’s radiant energy system (CERES): an earth observing system experiment. Bull Amer Meteor Soc 77:853–868

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Yin J (2005) A consistent poleward shift of the storm tracks in simulations of the 21st century climate. Geophys Res Lett 32:L18701

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zhang Y-C, Rossow WB, Lacis AA, Oinas V, Mishchenko MI (2004) Calculation of radiative fluxes from the surface to top of atmosphere based on ISCCP and other global data sets: Refinements of the radiative transfer model and the input data. J Geophys Res 109:D19105

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zhang R, Li G, Fan J, Wu DL, Molina MJ (2007) Intensification of Pacific storm track linked to Asian pollution. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 104(13):5295–5299

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zhu A, Ramanathan V, Li F, Kim D (2007) Dust plumes over the Pacific, Indian, and Atlantic oceans: climatology and radiative impact. J Geophys Res 112:D16208

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgments

This work was funded by the National Science Foundation, through the Atmospheric Science Division, ATM0721142. We acknowledge the modeling groups, the Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI) and the WCRP’s Working Group on Coupled Modelling (WGCM) for their roles in making available the WCRP CMIP3 multi-model dataset. Support of this dataset is provided by the Office of Science, U.S. Department of Energy. CRU data are obtained from http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs, ERA data from the ECMWF Data Server, ERBE and CERES data from the Atmospheric Science Data Center at NASA Langley Research Center, ISCCP data from http://isccp.giss.nasa.gov/products/onlineData.html.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Center for Clouds, Chemistry and Climate (C4), Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla, CA, USA

    Frida A-M. Bender & V. Ramanathan

  2. NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, Columbia University, New York, NY, USA

    George Tselioudis

Authors
  1. Frida A-M. Bender
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. V. Ramanathan
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. George Tselioudis
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Frida A-M. Bender.

Appendix

Appendix

See Tables 5, 6 and Figs. 9, 10.

Table 5 Correlation coefficients (r) for relations between SW flux and SW CRF and LW flux and LW CRF on global scale (ocean only) and for four storm track regions, using deseasonalized monthly mean anomalies from CERES ES4 (March 2000–February 2010) and ERBE S4G (November 1984–February 1991) respectively
Full size table
Table 6 Correlation coefficients (r) for deseasonalized monthly mean anomalies of SW and LW radiative fluxes and cloud fraction, and corresponding linear regression coefficients (b) from various combinations of satellite data sets, for global ocean and four storm track regions
Full size table
Fig. 9
figure 9

Global ocean aveage ISCCP total cloud fraction anomaly (solid line, left y-axis), and μ = 1/cos(VZA) (dashed line, right y-axis) anomaly. Monthly mean values 1983–2008, smoothed with a 3 month running average. Explained variance (R 2) is 0.5

Full size image
Fig. 10
figure 10

Deseasonalized monthly mean anomalies of reflected SW (dotted line) and outgoing LW (dashed line) at TOA from ERBE WFOV. Data shown for ocean only, averaged between 60°S and 60°N and smoothed with a 3 month running average

Full size image

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Bender, F.AM., Ramanathan, V. & Tselioudis, G. Changes in extratropical storm track cloudiness 1983–2008: observational support for a poleward shift. Clim Dyn 38, 2037–2053 (2012). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-011-1065-6

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-011-1065-6

Keywords

Search

Navigation