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200 years of European temperature variability: insights from and tests of the proxy surrogate reconstruction analog method

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Abstract

Spatially resolved climate reconstructions are commonly derived from long instrumental series and proxy data via linear regression based approaches that use the main modes of the climate system. Such reconstructions have been shown to underestimate climate variability and are based upon the assumption that the main modes of climate variability are stationary back in time. Climate models simulate physically consistent climate fields but cannot be taken to represent the real past climate trajectory because of their necessarily simplified scope and chaotic internal variability. Here, we present sensitivity tests of, and a 200-year temperature reconstruction from, the PSR (Proxy Surrogate Reconstruction) method. This method simultaneously capitalizes on the individual strengths of instrumental/proxy data based reconstructions and model simulations by selecting the model states (analogs) that are most similar with proxy/instrumental data available at specific places and specific moments of time. Sensitivity experiments reveal an optimal PSR configuration and indicate that 6,500 simulation years of existing climate models provide a sufficient pool of possible analogs to skillfully reconstruct monthly European temperature fields during the past 200 years. Reconstruction verification based upon only seven instrumental stations indicates potential for extensions back in time using sparse proxy data. Additionally the PSR method allows evaluation of single time series, in this case the homogeneity of instrumental series, by identifying inconsistencies with the reconstructed climate field. We present an updated European temperature reconstruction including newly homogenized instrumental records performed with the computationally efficient PSR method that proves to capture the total variance of the target.

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Acknowledgments

This study was funded by the EU project MILLENNIUM (#017008-GOCE) and by the Swiss National Science Foundation (SNSF) through its National Center of Competence in Research on Climate (NCCR Climate). We are thankful to all data-contributors: Johann Jungclaus et al. from the MPI in Hamburg; Simon Tett and Phil Brohan from Hadley Centre, Exeter; Jürg Luterbacher from the University of Gießen and Geert Jan van Oldenborgh from the KNMI (Climate-Explorer: http://climexp.knmi.nl). We also very much appreciated discussions with Ed Cook, Anders Moberg, Eduardo Zorita and Jan Esper. Finally we want to thank the anonymous reviewers for their constructive comments and suggestions.

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  1. Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL, Zürcherstrasse 111, 8903, Birmensdorf, Switzerland

    Jörg Franke

  2. Universidad Complutense, Madrid, Spain

    J. Fidel González-Rouco

  3. Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL, Birmensdorf, Switzerland

    David Frank

  4. Hydrologic Research Center, San Diego, CA, USA

    Nicholas E. Graham

  5. Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, CA, USA

    Nicholas E. Graham

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  1. Jörg Franke
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Correspondence to Jörg Franke.

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Franke, J., González-Rouco, J.F., Frank, D. et al. 200 years of European temperature variability: insights from and tests of the proxy surrogate reconstruction analog method. Clim Dyn 37, 133–150 (2011). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-010-0802-6

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