Abstract
The impacts of solar activity on climate are explored in this two-part study. Based on the principles of atmospheric dynamics, Part I propose an amplifying mechanism of solar impacts on winter climate extremes through changing the atmospheric circulation patterns. This mechanism is supported by data analysis of the sunspot number up to the predicted Solar Cycle 24, the historical surface temperature data, and atmospheric variables of NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis up to the February 2011 for the Northern Hemisphere winters. For low solar activity, the thermal contrast between the low- and high-latitudes is enhanced, so as the mid-latitude baroclinic ultra-long wave activity. The land-ocean thermal contrast is also enhanced, which amplifies the topographic waves. The enhanced mid-latitude waves in turn enhance the meridional heat transport from the low to high latitudes, making the atmospheric “heat engine” more efficient than normal. The jets shift southward and the polar vortex is weakened. The Northern Annular Mode (NAM) index tends to be negative. The mid-latitude surface exhibits large-scale convergence and updrafts, which favor extreme weather/climate events to occur. The thermally driven Siberian high is enhanced, which enhances the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM). For high solar activity, the mid-latitude circulation patterns are less wavy with less meridional transport. The NAM tends to be positive, and the Siberian high and the EAWM tend to be weaker than normal. Thus the extreme weather/climate events for high solar activity occur in different regions with different severity from those for low solar activity. The solar influence on the midto high-latitude surface temperature and circulations can stand out after removing the influence from the El Niño-Southern Oscillation. The atmospheric amplifying mechanism indicates that the solar impacts on climate should not be simply estimated by the magnitude of the change in the solar radiation over solar cycles when it is compared with other external radiative forcings that do not influence the climate in the same way as the sun does.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Barry, L., G. C. Craig, and J. Thuburn, 2002: Poleward heat transport by the atmospheric heat engine. Nature, 415, 774–777.
Brohan, P., J. J. Kennedy, I. Harris, S. F. B. Tett, and P. D. Jones, 2006: Uncertainty estimates in regional and global observed temperature changes: A new data set from 1850. J. Geophys. Res., 111, D12106, doi: 10.1029/2005JD006548.
Camp, C. D., and K.-K. Tung, 2007: Surface warming by the solar cycle as revealed by the composite mean difference projection. Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L14703, doi: 10.1029/2007GL030207.
Ding, Y., and T. Krishnamurti, 1987: Heat budget of the Siberian High and the winter monsoon. Mon. Wea. Rev., 115, 2428–2449.
Gleissberg, W., 1965: The eighty-year solar cycle in auroral frequency numbers. Journal of the British Astronomical Association, 75, 227.
Gong, D.-Y., and C.-H. Ho, 2002: The Siberian high and climate change over middle to high latitude Asia. Theor. Appl. Climatol., 72, 1–9.
Gray, L. J., and Coauthors, 2010: Solar influences on climate. Rev. Geophys., 48, RG4001.
Haigh, J. D., 2007: The Sun and the Earth’s climate. Living Rev. Solar Phys., 4, lrsp-2007-2. [Available online from http://www.livingreviews.org/lrsp-2007-2]
Ineson, S., A. A. Scaife, J. R. Knight, J. C. Manners, N. J. Dunstone, L. J. Gray, and J. D. Haigh, 2011: Solar forcing of winter climate variability in the Northern Hemisphere. Nature Geoscience, doi: 10.1038/NGEO1282.
IPCC, 2007: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Solomon et al., Eds., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge and New York, 996pp.
Jin, F.-F., J. D. Neelin, and M. Ghil, 1996: El Niño/Southern Oscillation and the annual cycle: Subharmonic frequency-locking and aperiodicity. Physics D, 98, 442–465.
Kalnay, E., and Coauthors, 1996: The NCEP/NCAR 40-year reanalysis project. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 77, 437–471.
Kerr, R. A., 2000: A North Atlantic climate pacemaker for the centuries. Science, 288(5473), 1984–1986.
Kodera, K., and Y. Kuroda, 2005: A possible mechanism of solar modulation of the spatial structure of the North Atlantic Oscillation. J. Geophys. Res., 110, D02111, doi: 10.1029/2004JD005258.
Labitzke, K., and H. van Loon, 1988: Association between the 11-year solar cycle, the QBO, and the atmosphere, I, The troposphere and stratosphere on the Northern Hemisphere winter. J. Atmos. Terr. Phys., 50, 197–206.
Lean, J., 1991: Variations in the sun’s radiative output. Rev Geophys, 29, 505–535.
Lean, J. L., and D. H. Rind, 2009: How will Earth’s surface temperature change in future decades? Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L15708, doi: 10.1029/2009GL038932.
Li, C., 1990: Interaction between anomalous winter monsoon in East Asia and El Niño events. Adv. Atmos. Sci., 7, 36–46.
Li, J., and J. Wang, 2003: A modified zonal index and its physical sense. Geophys. Res. Lett., 30, 1632, doi: 10.1029/2003GL017441.
Lindzen, R. S., 1994: Climate dynamics and global change. Annual Review of Fluid Mechanics, 26, 353–378.
Lorenz, E. N., 1967: The Nature and Theory of the General Circulation of the Atmosphere. WMO, Geneva, 161pp.
Matsuno, T., 1971: A dynamical model of the stratospheric sudden warming. J. Atmos. Sci., 28, 1479–1494.
Meehl, G. A., J. M. Arblaster, G. Branstator, and H. van Loon, 2008: A coupled air-sea response mechanism to solar forcing in the Pacific region. J. Climate, 21, 2883–2897, doi: 10.1175/2007JCLI1776.1.
Nakamura, H., T. Izumi, and T. Sampe, 2002: Interannual and decadal modulations recently observed in the Pacific storm track activity and East Asian winter monsoon. J. Climate, 15, 1855–1874.
NRC, 1994: Solar Influences on Global Change. Natl. Acad., Washington, D.C., USA, 163pp.
Rayner, N. A., D. E. Parker, E. B. Horton, C. K. Folland, L. V. Alexander, D. P. Rowell, E. C. Kent, and A. Kaplan, 2003: Global analyses of SST, sea ice and night marine air temperature since the late nineteenth century. J. Geophys. Res., 108, doi: 10.1029/2002JD002670.
Reid, G. C., 1991: Solar total irradiance variations and the global sea surface temperature record. J. Geophys. Res., 96, 2835–2844.
Robock, A., 2002: The climatic aftermath. Science, 295, 1242–1244.
Roy, I., and J. D. Haigh, 2010: Solar cycle signals in sea level pressure and sea surface temperature. Atmos. Chem. Phys., 100, 3147–3153.
Salby, M., and P. Callaghan, 2004: Evidence of the solar cycle in the general circulation of the stratosphere. J. Climate, 17, 34–46.
Shindell, D., D. Rind, N. Balachandran, J. Lean, and P. Lonergran, 1999: Solar cycle variability, ozone, and climate. Science, 284, 305–308.
Semenov, V. A., M. Latif, D. Dommenget, N. S. Keenlyside, A. Strehz, T. Martin, and W. Park, 2010: The Impact of North Atlantic-Arctic multidecadal variability on Northern Hemisphere surface air temperature. J. Climate, 23, 5668–5677.
Soon, W., 2009: Solar arctic-mediated climate variation on multidecadal to centennial timescales: Empirical evidence, mechanistic explanation, and testable consequences. Physical Geography, 30, 144–184.
Soon, W., K. Dutta, D. R. Legates, V. Velasco, and W.-J. Zhang, 2011: Variation in surface air temperature of China during the 20th century. Journal of Atmospheric and S olar-Terrestrial Physics, 73, 2331–2344.
Trenberth, K. E., 1997: The definition of El Niño. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 78, 2771–2777.
Tung, K.-K., and R. S. Lindzen, 1979: A theory of stationary waves. Part I: A simple theory of blocking. Mon. Wea. Rev., 107, 714–734.
Tung, K.-K., and D. C. Camp, 2008: Solar-cycle warming at the earth’s surface in NCEP and ERA40 data: A linear discriminant analysis. J. Geophys. Res., 113, DO5114, doi: 10.1029/2007JD009164.
van Loon, H., G. A. Meehl, and J. S. Dennis, 2007: Coupled air-sea response to solar forcing in the Pacific region during northern winter. J. Geophys. Res., 112, D02108, doi: 10.1029/2006JD007378.
Wallace, J. M., and D. W. J. Thompson, 2002: The Pacific center of action of the Northern Hemisphere annular mode: Real or artifact? J. Climate, 15, 1987–1991.
Weng, H.-Y., 2005: The influence of the 11 yr solar cycle on the interannual-centennial climate variability. Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics, 67, 793–805.
Weng, H.-Y., 2012: Impacts of multi-scale solar activity on climate. Part II: Dominant timescales in decadal-centennial climate variability. Adv. Atmos. Sci., 29(4), 887–908, doi: 10.1007/s00376-012-1239-0.
Weng, H.-Y., and A. Barcilon, 1988: Wavenumber selection for single-wave steady states in a nonlinear baroclinic system. J. Atmos. Sci., 45, 1039–1051.
Weng, H.-Y., and K.-M. Lau, 1994: Wavelets, period doubling, and time-frequency localization with application to organization of convection over the tropical western Pacific. J. Atmos. Sci., 51, 2523–2541.
White, W. B., J. Lean, D. R. Cayan, and M. D. Dettinger, 1997: Response of global upper ocean temperature to changing solar irradiance. J. Geophys. Res., 102, 3255–3266.
Zhou, T., and R. Yu, 2006: Twentieth-century surface air temperature over China and the globe simulated by coupled climate models. J. Climate, 19, 5843–5858.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Weng, H. Impacts of multi-scale solar activity on climate. Part I: Atmospheric circulation patterns and climate extremes. Adv. Atmos. Sci. 29, 867–886 (2012). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-012-1238-1
Received:
Revised:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-012-1238-1