Change, and vulnerability to natural hazard: Chiswell, dorset

Summary

The occurrence of disastrous manifestations of hazard are not usually unique events. In analysis of the causes and effects of these occurrences there are problems for analysts, academics and policy-makers in the understanding of long-term perspectives as the context for recent events and future policies. Understanding will be made initially, but necessarily, more complex by the variety of standpoints of different interest groups in the affected community, and of the community at large.

Physical permanence of a community cannot beassumed in a changing environmental condition. Vulnerability to the sea has increased during the thousand years of Chiswell's existence, and is continuing to do so. Understanding of this changing state by various groups in society, and their administrators, is the key to the selection and effectiveness of interacting social and technological measures whether undertaken specifically against hazard or not.

The extent to which technology can be effectively mobilised and implemented to ensure prolonged community permanence may only be assessed by detailed analysis of environmental phenomena on the one hand, and by comparison with social adjustments on the other. Social adjustments cannot be compared until those options are made realistically available by the authorities elected for their administration.

The condition of vulnerability is not static. Analysis and assessment of short- and longer-term issues is at once a multi-disciplinary process calling for a fusion of physical and earth sciences, social sciences, and political and administrative processes. That these sciences and processes are themselves evolving, and are not static, is as true as for vulnerability itself. That all are in short- and long-term processes of change must be understood if each is to be integrated with the other for maximum comprehensive and effective response to natural hazard.