Summary
Relationships of Indian monsoon rainfall with Sea Surface Temperature (SST) and Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) tendencies from DJF to MAM and those between concurrent SST and SOI tendencies are important in view of their large-scale character. Some of these have application in the field of forecasting. Bias on these or any other relationships can possibly arise from a few years of extreme data. Whether the bias results in suppression of an existing relationship, in creating a relationship when none exists, or strenghthening or weakening an existing relationship, over any period, needs to be examined, and if found so, the bias should be removed and bias-free relationships should be discussed and considered for applications. This problem has been examined in respect of the forementioned relationships by following an objective procedure for removing the bias. Removal of the bias has made a notable difference in respect of the strength as well as significance of the relationship over some periods, for some relationships. The main features of the relationships free from such bias are: (a) Indian monsoon rainfall and SST tendency from DJF to MAM before as well as after monsoon are significantly related except within 1904–1940 in respect of relationship with tendency before monsoon, (b) Indian monsoon rainfall and SOI tendency before and after monsoon are significantly related over some non-overlapping component periods only, (c) though the best SST-SOI tendency coupling is for DJF to MAM tendency, no coupling is observed between these tendencies within 1904–1940, (d) linkage of SST tendency from DJF to MAM with the preceding Indian monsoon rainfall appears to be stronger than that with the concurrent SOI tendency and continues even during the period of no coupling between the tendencies, thus bringing out the dominating active role played by the Indian monsoon.
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Mooley, D.A., Munot, A.A. Relationships between Indian summer monsoon and pacific SST/SOI tendency from winter to spring and their stability. Theor Appl Climatol 56, 187–197 (1997). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00866426
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00866426