Subformal warning systems in the species Homo politicus

Abstract

A political activist needs to pick up early warning signals that “something is happening” which might require his attention. The “something” could be an emergent danger or opportunity. An ideal-typical warning system is postulated to account for what is believed to be the extraordinary infrequency of activists being caught off guard under most “routine” conditions. Such a system would ideally meet four criteria: rapidity, comprehensiveness, validity, and selectivity. The postulated system rests on what Anthony Downs has called “subformal” communications channels among individuals and groups interrelated by principles of specialization and the division of labor.