Abstract
This study employs a new version of the Solow Growth Model in order to investigate the higher education-led growth (HELG) hypothesis in the case of North Cyprus. Results reveal that a long-run equilibrium relationship exists between real income growth of North Cyprus and its determinants, namely capital, labor, and the higher education sector. Results show that real income growth converges to its long-term equilibrium level by 10.9 %. Granger causality tests suggest undirectional causality from higher education growth to real income growth in North Cyprus. Therefore, the HELG hypothesis can be inferred for the Turkish Cypriot economy.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Agénor P.R.: Output, devaluation and the real exchange rate in developing countries. Rev. World Econ. (Weltwirtschaftliches Arch.) 127(1), 18–41 (1991)
Alderman H., Behrman J.R., Ross D.R., Sabot R.: The returns to endogenous human capital in Pakistan’s rural wage labour market. Oxf. Bull. Econ. Stat. 58(1), 29–55 (1996)
Al-Qudsi S.S.: Returns to education, sectoral pay differentials and determinants in Kuwait. Econ. Educ. Rev. 8(3), 263–276 (1989)
Balaguer J., Cantavella-Jordá M.: Tourism as a long-run economic growth factor: the Spanish case. Appl. Econ. 34(7), 877–884 (2002)
Becker, G.S.: Human Capital: A Theoretical and Empirical Analysis, with Special Reference to Education. University of Chicago Press, Chicago (1964)
Beneito P., Ferri J., Molto M.L., Uriel E.: Determinants of the demand for education in Spain. Appl. Econ. 33(12), 1541–1551 (2001)
Blankenau W.F., Simpson N.B.: Public education expenditures and growth. J. Dev. Econ. 73(2), 583–605 (2004)
Cellini R.: Implication of Solow’s growth model in the presence of a stochastic steady-state. J. Macroecon. 19(1), 135–153 (1997)
Cortés-Jiménez I., Pulina M.: Inbound tourism and long-run economic growth. Curr Issues Tour 13(1), 61–74 (2010)
Dahlin, B.: The State, the Universities, and Civil Society. Paper presented at the ECER 2002, Lisbon, pp. 11–14 (2002)
Denison, E.F.: Why Growth Rates Differ. The Brookings Institution, Washington (1967)
Dickey D., Fuller W.A.: Likelihood ratio statistics for autoregressive time series with a unit root. Econometrica 49, 1057–1072 (1981)
Dristakis N.: Tourism as a long-run economic growth factor: an empirical investigation for Greece using causality analysis. Tour. Econ. 10(3), 305–316 (2004)
Edwards, S.: Openness, outward orientation, trade liberalization, and economic performance in developing countries. World Bank PPR, Working Paper No: 191 (1989)
Glewwe P., Jacoby H.: Economic growth and the demand for education: is there a wealth effect?. J. Dev. Econ. 74(1), 33–51 (2004)
Gujarati, D.N.: Basic Econometrics, 4th edn. McGraw-Hill, New York (2003)
Gunduz L., Hatemi-Jb A.: Is the tourism-led growth hypopothesis valid for Turkey?. Appl. Econ. Lett. 12, 499–504 (2005)
Jayawardena C., Ramajeesingh D.: Performance of tourism analysis: a Caribbean perspective. Int. J. Contemp. Hosp. Manag. 15(3), 176–179 (2003)
Kamin S.B., Rogers J.H.: Output and the real exchange rate in developing countries: an application to Mexico. J. Dev. Econ. 61(1), 85–109 (2000)
Katircioglu S.T.: International tourism, higher education, and economic growth: the case of North Cyprus. World Econ 33(12), 1955–1972 (2010)
Katircioglu S.: Revisiting the tourism-led-growth hypothesis for Turkey using the bounds test and Johansen approach for cointegration. Tour. Manag. 30(1), 17–20 (2009a)
Katircioglu S.: Trade, tourism and growth: the case of Cyprus. Appl. Econ. 41(21), 2741–2750 (2009b)
Katircioglu S.: Testing the tourism-led growth hypothesis: the case of Malta. Acta Oecon. 59(3), 331–343 (2009)
Kim H.J., Chen M.H., Jang S.S.: Tourism expansion and economic development: the case of Taiwan. Tour. Manag. 27(5), 925–933 (2006)
Knight M., Loyaza N., Villaneura D.: Testing the neo-classical theory of economic growth. IMF Staff Paper 40, 512–541 (1993)
Knight, M., Loayza, N., Villanueva, D.: Testing the neoclassical theory of economic growth: a panel data approach. IMF Working Paper 106 (1992)
Lim C.: An econometric classification and review of international tourism demand models. Tour. Econ. 3(1), 69–81 (1997)
Luzzi G.F., Flückiger Y.: An econometric estimation of the demand for tourism: the case of Switzerland. Pac. Econ. Rev. 8(3), 289–303 (2003)
Mankiw N.G.: The growth of nations. Brooking Pap. Econ. Activ. 25(1), 275–310 (1995)
Mankiw G.N., Romer D., Weil D.N.: A contribution to the empirics of economic growth. Q. J. Econ. 107, 407–437 (1992)
Mehmet O., Tahiroglu M.: Growth and equity in microstates: does size matter in development?. Int. J. Soc. Econ. 29(1–2), 152–162 (2002)
McKinnon R.: Foreign exchange constraint in economic development and efficient aid allocation. Econ. J. 74, 388–409 (1964)
Narayan P.K.: The saving and investment nexus for China: evidence from cointegration tests. Appl. Econ. 37(17), 1979–1990 (2005)
Narayan P.K., Narayan S.: Estimating income and price elasticities of imports for Fiji in a cointegration framework. Econ. Model. 22, 423–438 (2005)
Narayan P.K., Smyth R.: The relationship between the real exchange rate and balance of payments: empirical evidence for China from co-integration and causality testing. Appl. Econ. Lett. 11, 287–291 (2004)
Oh C.K.: The contribution of tourism development to economic growth in the Korean economy. Tour. Manag. 26, 39–44 (2005)
Omotor D.G.: The role of exports in the economic growth of Nigeria: the bounds test analysis. Int. J. Econ. Perspect. 2(4), 222–235 (2008)
Ongan S., Demiroz D.M.: The contribution of tourism to the long-run Turkish economic growth. J. Econ. 53(9), 880–894 (2005)
Pesaran, M.H., Shin, Y.: An autoregressive distributed lag modelling approach to cointegration analysis, Chap. 11. In: Strom, S. (ed.) Econometrics and Economic Theory in the 20th Century: The Ragnar Frisch Centennial Symposium. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge (1999)
Pesaran M.H., Shin Y., Smith R.J.: Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships. J. Appl. Econom. 16, 289–326 (2001)
Phillips P.C.B., Perron P.: Testing for a unit root in time series regression. Biometrica 75, 335–346 (1988)
Prasad N.: Growth and social development in the Pacific island countries. Int. J. Soc. Econ 35(12), 930–950 (2008)
Psacharopoulos, G.: Education and national development: a comparative perspective: by Ingemar Fagerlind and Lawrence J. Saha. Oxford: Pergamon Press, 1983. 237 pp. U.S. $32 (cloth), U.S.$13 (paper). Econ. Educ. Rev. 7(3), 367–368 (1988)
Psacharopoulos G.: Time trends of the returns to education: cross-national evidence. Econ. Educ. Rev. 8(3), 225–231 (1989)
Psacharopoulos, G., Woodhall, M.: Education for Development. Oxford University Press, London (1985)
Psacharopoulos, G.: Education and economic growth in the developing countries: Peter Mandi. Budapest: Akademiai Kiado, 1981 (distributed in the US by Humanities Press, Atlantic High-lands, NJ). pp. 225. Price U.S. $25.00. Econ. Educ. Rev. 3(4), 353–354 (1984)
Pindyck, R.S., Rubinfeld, D.L.: Models and Economic Forecasts McGraw-Hill, New York (1991)
Ram R.: Can educational expansion reduce income inequality in less-developed countries?. Econ. Educ. Rev. 8(2), 185–195 (1989)
Romer P.M.: Endogenous technological change. J. Political Econ 98(5), 71–102 (1990)
Shan J., Wilson K.: Causality between trade and tourism: empirical evidence from China. Appl. Econ. Lett. 8, 279–283 (2001)
Schultz T.W.: Investment in human capital. Am. Econ. Rev. 51, 1–17 (1961)
Schultz, T.W.: Education and economic growth: return to education. Readings in the Economics of Education, UNESCO (1968)
Song, H., Romilly, P., Liu, X.: (1997) An empirical study of outbound tourism demand in the UK. Paper Presented at the 17th Annual Symposium on Forecasting, Barbados, June 19–21
State Planning Organization (SPO): Economic and Social Indicators. Follow Up and Coordination Department, Prime Ministry, North Cyprus (2010)
Stevens, P., Weale, M.: Education and Economic Growth. National Institute of Economic and Social Research, London (2003)
Temple J., Voth H.J.: Human capital, equipment investment, and industrialization. Eur. Econ. Rev. 42(7), 1343–1362 (1998)
UNEP (United Nations Environment Programme). Tourism. Paris (2002)
Wilkinson, P. F.: Tourism in Small Island Nations: a Fragile Dependency’, Leis. Stud. 6(2), 127–146.
Witt S.F., Witt C.A.: Forecasting tourism demand: a review of empirical research. Int. J. Forecast. 11(3), 447–475 (1995)
World Development Indicators. World Bank http://databank.worldbank.org/ddp/home.do?Step=12&id=4&CNO=2, (2010). Accessed on February 2012.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Katircioğlu, S., Fethi, S. & Caner, H. Testing the higher education-led growth hypothesis in a small island: an empirical investigation from a new version of the Solow growth model. Qual Quant 48, 729–744 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11135-012-9798-9
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11135-012-9798-9