Skip to main content
Log in

Testing the higher education-led growth hypothesis in a small island: an empirical investigation from a new version of the Solow growth model

  • Published:
Quality & Quantity Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

This study employs a new version of the Solow Growth Model in order to investigate the higher education-led growth (HELG) hypothesis in the case of North Cyprus. Results reveal that a long-run equilibrium relationship exists between real income growth of North Cyprus and its determinants, namely capital, labor, and the higher education sector. Results show that real income growth converges to its long-term equilibrium level by 10.9 %. Granger causality tests suggest undirectional causality from higher education growth to real income growth in North Cyprus. Therefore, the HELG hypothesis can be inferred for the Turkish Cypriot economy.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Agénor P.R.: Output, devaluation and the real exchange rate in developing countries. Rev. World Econ. (Weltwirtschaftliches Arch.) 127(1), 18–41 (1991)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Alderman H., Behrman J.R., Ross D.R., Sabot R.: The returns to endogenous human capital in Pakistan’s rural wage labour market. Oxf. Bull. Econ. Stat. 58(1), 29–55 (1996)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Al-Qudsi S.S.: Returns to education, sectoral pay differentials and determinants in Kuwait. Econ. Educ. Rev. 8(3), 263–276 (1989)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Balaguer J., Cantavella-Jordá M.: Tourism as a long-run economic growth factor: the Spanish case. Appl. Econ. 34(7), 877–884 (2002)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Becker, G.S.: Human Capital: A Theoretical and Empirical Analysis, with Special Reference to Education. University of Chicago Press, Chicago (1964)

  • Beneito P., Ferri J., Molto M.L., Uriel E.: Determinants of the demand for education in Spain. Appl. Econ. 33(12), 1541–1551 (2001)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Blankenau W.F., Simpson N.B.: Public education expenditures and growth. J. Dev. Econ. 73(2), 583–605 (2004)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cellini R.: Implication of Solow’s growth model in the presence of a stochastic steady-state. J. Macroecon. 19(1), 135–153 (1997)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cortés-Jiménez I., Pulina M.: Inbound tourism and long-run economic growth. Curr Issues Tour 13(1), 61–74 (2010)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dahlin, B.: The State, the Universities, and Civil Society. Paper presented at the ECER 2002, Lisbon, pp. 11–14 (2002)

  • Denison, E.F.: Why Growth Rates Differ. The Brookings Institution, Washington (1967)

  • Dickey D., Fuller W.A.: Likelihood ratio statistics for autoregressive time series with a unit root. Econometrica 49, 1057–1072 (1981)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dristakis N.: Tourism as a long-run economic growth factor: an empirical investigation for Greece using causality analysis. Tour. Econ. 10(3), 305–316 (2004)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Edwards, S.: Openness, outward orientation, trade liberalization, and economic performance in developing countries. World Bank PPR, Working Paper No: 191 (1989)

  • Glewwe P., Jacoby H.: Economic growth and the demand for education: is there a wealth effect?. J. Dev. Econ. 74(1), 33–51 (2004)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gujarati, D.N.: Basic Econometrics, 4th edn. McGraw-Hill, New York (2003)

  • Gunduz L., Hatemi-Jb A.: Is the tourism-led growth hypopothesis valid for Turkey?. Appl. Econ. Lett. 12, 499–504 (2005)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Jayawardena C., Ramajeesingh D.: Performance of tourism analysis: a Caribbean perspective. Int. J. Contemp. Hosp. Manag. 15(3), 176–179 (2003)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kamin S.B., Rogers J.H.: Output and the real exchange rate in developing countries: an application to Mexico. J. Dev. Econ. 61(1), 85–109 (2000)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Katircioglu S.T.: International tourism, higher education, and economic growth: the case of North Cyprus. World Econ 33(12), 1955–1972 (2010)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Katircioglu S.: Revisiting the tourism-led-growth hypothesis for Turkey using the bounds test and Johansen approach for cointegration. Tour. Manag. 30(1), 17–20 (2009a)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Katircioglu S.: Trade, tourism and growth: the case of Cyprus. Appl. Econ. 41(21), 2741–2750 (2009b)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Katircioglu S.: Testing the tourism-led growth hypothesis: the case of Malta. Acta Oecon. 59(3), 331–343 (2009)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kim H.J., Chen M.H., Jang S.S.: Tourism expansion and economic development: the case of Taiwan. Tour. Manag. 27(5), 925–933 (2006)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Knight M., Loyaza N., Villaneura D.: Testing the neo-classical theory of economic growth. IMF Staff Paper 40, 512–541 (1993)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Knight, M., Loayza, N., Villanueva, D.: Testing the neoclassical theory of economic growth: a panel data approach. IMF Working Paper 106 (1992)

  • Lim C.: An econometric classification and review of international tourism demand models. Tour. Econ. 3(1), 69–81 (1997)

    Google Scholar 

  • Luzzi G.F., Flückiger Y.: An econometric estimation of the demand for tourism: the case of Switzerland. Pac. Econ. Rev. 8(3), 289–303 (2003)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mankiw N.G.: The growth of nations. Brooking Pap. Econ. Activ. 25(1), 275–310 (1995)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mankiw G.N., Romer D., Weil D.N.: A contribution to the empirics of economic growth. Q. J. Econ. 107, 407–437 (1992)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mehmet O., Tahiroglu M.: Growth and equity in microstates: does size matter in development?. Int. J. Soc. Econ. 29(1–2), 152–162 (2002)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • McKinnon R.: Foreign exchange constraint in economic development and efficient aid allocation. Econ. J. 74, 388–409 (1964)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Narayan P.K.: The saving and investment nexus for China: evidence from cointegration tests. Appl. Econ. 37(17), 1979–1990 (2005)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Narayan P.K., Narayan S.: Estimating income and price elasticities of imports for Fiji in a cointegration framework. Econ. Model. 22, 423–438 (2005)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Narayan P.K., Smyth R.: The relationship between the real exchange rate and balance of payments: empirical evidence for China from co-integration and causality testing. Appl. Econ. Lett. 11, 287–291 (2004)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Oh C.K.: The contribution of tourism development to economic growth in the Korean economy. Tour. Manag. 26, 39–44 (2005)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Omotor D.G.: The role of exports in the economic growth of Nigeria: the bounds test analysis. Int. J. Econ. Perspect. 2(4), 222–235 (2008)

    Google Scholar 

  • Ongan S., Demiroz D.M.: The contribution of tourism to the long-run Turkish economic growth. J. Econ. 53(9), 880–894 (2005)

    Google Scholar 

  • Pesaran, M.H., Shin, Y.: An autoregressive distributed lag modelling approach to cointegration analysis, Chap. 11. In: Strom, S. (ed.) Econometrics and Economic Theory in the 20th Century: The Ragnar Frisch Centennial Symposium. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge (1999)

  • Pesaran M.H., Shin Y., Smith R.J.: Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships. J. Appl. Econom. 16, 289–326 (2001)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Phillips P.C.B., Perron P.: Testing for a unit root in time series regression. Biometrica 75, 335–346 (1988)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Prasad N.: Growth and social development in the Pacific island countries. Int. J. Soc. Econ 35(12), 930–950 (2008)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Psacharopoulos, G.: Education and national development: a comparative perspective: by Ingemar Fagerlind and Lawrence J. Saha. Oxford: Pergamon Press, 1983. 237 pp. U.S. $32 (cloth), U.S.$13 (paper). Econ. Educ. Rev. 7(3), 367–368 (1988)

  • Psacharopoulos G.: Time trends of the returns to education: cross-national evidence. Econ. Educ. Rev. 8(3), 225–231 (1989)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Psacharopoulos, G., Woodhall, M.: Education for Development. Oxford University Press, London (1985)

  • Psacharopoulos, G.: Education and economic growth in the developing countries: Peter Mandi. Budapest: Akademiai Kiado, 1981 (distributed in the US by Humanities Press, Atlantic High-lands, NJ). pp. 225. Price U.S. $25.00. Econ. Educ. Rev. 3(4), 353–354 (1984)

  • Pindyck, R.S., Rubinfeld, D.L.: Models and Economic Forecasts McGraw-Hill, New York (1991)

  • Ram R.: Can educational expansion reduce income inequality in less-developed countries?. Econ. Educ. Rev. 8(2), 185–195 (1989)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Romer P.M.: Endogenous technological change. J. Political Econ 98(5), 71–102 (1990)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Shan J., Wilson K.: Causality between trade and tourism: empirical evidence from China. Appl. Econ. Lett. 8, 279–283 (2001)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Schultz T.W.: Investment in human capital. Am. Econ. Rev. 51, 1–17 (1961)

    Google Scholar 

  • Schultz, T.W.: Education and economic growth: return to education. Readings in the Economics of Education, UNESCO (1968)

  • Song, H., Romilly, P., Liu, X.: (1997) An empirical study of outbound tourism demand in the UK. Paper Presented at the 17th Annual Symposium on Forecasting, Barbados, June 19–21

  • State Planning Organization (SPO): Economic and Social Indicators. Follow Up and Coordination Department, Prime Ministry, North Cyprus (2010)

  • Stevens, P., Weale, M.: Education and Economic Growth. National Institute of Economic and Social Research, London (2003)

  • Temple J., Voth H.J.: Human capital, equipment investment, and industrialization. Eur. Econ. Rev. 42(7), 1343–1362 (1998)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • UNEP (United Nations Environment Programme). Tourism. Paris (2002)

  • Wilkinson, P. F.: Tourism in Small Island Nations: a Fragile Dependency’, Leis. Stud. 6(2), 127–146.

  • Witt S.F., Witt C.A.: Forecasting tourism demand: a review of empirical research. Int. J. Forecast. 11(3), 447–475 (1995)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • World Development Indicators. World Bank http://databank.worldbank.org/ddp/home.do?Step=12&id=4&CNO=2, (2010). Accessed on February 2012.

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Salih Katircioğlu.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Katircioğlu, S.,  Fethi, S. & Caner, H. Testing the higher education-led growth hypothesis in a small island: an empirical investigation from a new version of the Solow growth model. Qual Quant 48, 729–744 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11135-012-9798-9

Download citation

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11135-012-9798-9

Keywords

Navigation