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Long-term population size of the North Atlantic humpback whale within the context of worldwide population structure

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Abstract

Once hunted to the brink of extinction, humpback whales (Megaptera novaeangliae) in the North Atlantic have recently been increasing in numbers. However, uncertain information on past abundance makes it difficult to assess the extent of the recovery in this species. While estimates of pre-exploitation abundance based upon catch data suggest the population might be approaching pre-whaling numbers, estimates based on mtDNA genetic diversity suggest they are still only a fraction of their past abundance levels. The difference between the two estimates could be accounted for by inaccuracies in the catch record, by uncertainties surrounding the genetic estimate, or by differences in the timescale to which the two estimates apply. Here we report an estimate of long-term population size based on nuclear gene diversity. We increase the reliability of our genetic estimate by increasing the number of loci, incorporating uncertainty in each parameter and increasing sampling across the geographic range. We report an estimate of long-term population size in the North Atlantic humpback of ~112,000 individuals (95 % CI 45,000–235,000). This value is 2–3 fold higher than estimates based upon catch data. This persistent difference between estimates parallels difficulties encountered by population models in explaining the historical crash of North Atlantic humpback whales. The remaining discrepancy between genetic and catch-record values, and the failure of population models, highlights a need for continued evaluation of whale population growth and shifts over time, and continued caution about changing the conservation status of this population.

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Acknowledgments

We thank Barry Nickel with his help with the creation of Fig. 1. This work was supported by a grant from the Lenfest Ocean Program (#2004-001492-023).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Biology, Hopkins Marine Station, Stanford University, 120 Oceanview Boulevard, Pacific Grove, CA, 93950, USA

    Kristen Ruegg & Stephen R. Palumbi

  2. Ocean Giants Program, Global Conservation, Wildlife Conservation Society, Bronx, NY, USA

    Howard C. Rosenbaum

  3. Sackler Institute for Comparative Genomics, American Museum of Natural History, 79th Street and Central Park West, New York, NY, USA

    Howard C. Rosenbaum & Anna Rothschild

  4. Fisheries Ecology Division, Southwest Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries Service, NOAA, 110 Shaffer Road, Santa Cruz, CA, 95060, USA

    Eric C. Anderson

  5. Department of Applied Math and Statistics, University of California, Santa Cruz, CA, 95060, USA

    Eric C. Anderson

  6. Instituto Baleia Jubarte/Humpback Whale Institute, Rua Barao do Rio Branco 26, Caravelas, BA, 45900-000, Brazil

    Marcia Engel

  7. Marine Mammal Institute, Hatfield Marine Science Center, Oregon State University, 2030 SE Marine Science Drive, Newport, OR, 97365, USA

    C. Scott Baker

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  1. Kristen Ruegg
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  2. Howard C. Rosenbaum
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Correspondence to Kristen Ruegg.

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Ruegg, K., Rosenbaum, H.C., Anderson, E.C. et al. Long-term population size of the North Atlantic humpback whale within the context of worldwide population structure. Conserv Genet 14, 103–114 (2013). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10592-012-0432-0

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