Skip to main content

Advertisement

Log in

Between the devil and the deep blue sea: Florida’s unenviable position with respect to sea level rise

  • Published:
Climatic Change Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

This paper introduces and summarizes a series of articles on the potential impacts of sea level rise on Florida’s natural and human communities and what might be done to reduce the severity of those impacts. Most of the papers in this special issue of Climatic Change were developed from presentations at a symposium held at Archbold Biological Station in January 2010, sponsored by the Florida Institute for Conservation Science. Symposium participants agreed that adaptation to sea level rise for the benefit of human communities should be planned in concert with adaptation to reduce vulnerability and impacts to natural communities and native species. The papers in this special issue discuss both of these categories of impacts and adaptation options. In this introductory paper, I place the subject in context by noting that that the literature in conservation biology related to climate change has been concerned largely about increasing temperatures and reduced moisture availability, rather than about sea level rise. The latter, however, is the most immediate and among the most severe impacts of global warming in low-lying regions such as Florida. I then review the content of this special issue by summarizing and interpreting the following 10 papers. I conclude with a review of the recommendations for research and policy that were developed from group discussions at the Archbold symposium. The main lesson that emerges from this volume is that sea level rise, combined with human population growth, urban development in coastal areas, and landscape fragmentation, poses an enormous threat to human and natural well-being in Florida. How Floridians respond to sea level rise will offer lessons, for better or worse, for other low-lying regions worldwide.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Alexander TR (1953) Plant succession on Key Largo, Florida, involving Pinus caribaea and Quercus virginiana. Q J Fla Acad Sci 16: 133–38

    Google Scholar 

  • Alexander TR (1974) Evidence of recent sea-level rise derived from ecological studies on Key Largo, Florida. In: Gleason PJ (ed) Environments of South Florida: present and past. Miami Geological Society, Coral Gables, pp 61–72

    Google Scholar 

  • Carpenter KE, Abrar M, Aeby G, Aronson RB et al (2008) One-third of reef-building corals face elevated extinction risk from climate change and local impacts. Science 321:560–563

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Carroll C (2007) Interacting effects of climate change, landscape conversion, and harvest on carnivore populations at the range margin: marten and lynx in the northern Appalachians. Conserv Biol 21:1092–1104

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Coastal States Organization (CSO) (2010) The faces of climate change adaptation: the need for proactive protection of the nation’s coasts. Coastal State Organization, Climate Change Work Group, Washington

    Google Scholar 

  • Crossett K, Culliton TJ, Wiley P, Goodspeed TR (2004) Population trends along the coastal United States, 1980–2008. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Silver Spring

    Google Scholar 

  • Davis MB, Shaw RG (2001) Range shifts and adaptive responses to Quaternary climate change. Science 292:673–679

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dawson TP, Jackson ST, House JI, Colin Prentice I, Mace GM (2011) Beyond predictions: biodiversity conservation in a changing climate. Science 332:53–58

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Donoghue JF (2011) Sea level history of the northern Gulf of Mexico coast and sea level rise scenarios for the near future. Clim Change. doi:10.1007/s10584-011-0077-x

    Google Scholar 

  • Estill JC, Cruzan MB (2001) Phytogeography of rare plant species endemic to the southeastern United States. Castanea 66:3–23

    Google Scholar 

  • Gentry AW (1986) Endemism in tropical versus temperate plant communities. In: Soulé ME (ed) Conservation biology: the science of scarcity and diversity. Sinauer, Sunderland, pp 153–181

    Google Scholar 

  • Geselbracht L, Freeman K, Kelly E, Gordon DR, Putz FE (2011) Retrospective and prospective model simulations of sea level rise impacts on Gulf of Mexico coastal marshes and forests in Waccasassa Bay, Florida. Clim Change. doi:10.1007/s10584-011-0084-y

    Google Scholar 

  • Hansen JE (2007) Scientific reticence and sea level rise. Environ Res Lett 2:1–6

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Harris LD, Cropper WP Jr (1992) Between the devil and the deep blue sea: implications of climate change for Florida’s fauna. In: Peters RL, Lovejoy TE (eds) Global warming and biological diversity. Yale University Press, New Haven, pp 309–324

    Google Scholar 

  • Heller NE, Zavaleta ES (2009) Biodiversity management in the face of climate change: a review of 22 years of recommendations. Biol Conserv 142:14–32

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hoctor T, Zwick P, Carr M (2010) Large-scale Implications of SLR on conservation priority areas and human settlement in Florida. Presentation at symposium, “Keeping Our Heads Above Water: Surviving the Challenges of Sea-Level Rise in Florida,” Archbold Biological Station, Lake Placid, Florida, 18–20 January 2010. http://www.flconservationscience.org/pdfs/Hoctor%20et%20al.pdf

  • Hoffman JS, Keyes D, Titus JG (1983) Predicting future sea level rise. US Environmental Protection Agency, Washington

    Google Scholar 

  • IPCC (2007) Climate change 2007: impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge

    Google Scholar 

  • Lips KR, Diffendorfer JE, Mendelson JR, Sears MW (2008) Riding the wave: reconciling the roles of disease and climate change in amphibian declines. PLoS Biol 6:441–454

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Martin J, Fackler PL, Nichols JD, Lubow BC, Eaton MJ, Runge MC, Stith BM, Langtimm CA (2011) Structured decision making as a proactive approach to dealing with sea level rise in Florida. Clim Change. doi:10.1007/s10584-011-0085-x

    Google Scholar 

  • Maschinski J, Ross MS, Liu H, O’Brien J, von Wettberg EJ, Haskins KE (2011) Sinking ships: conservation options for endemic taxa threatened by sea level rise. Clim Change. doi:10.1007/s10584-011-0083-z

    Google Scholar 

  • National Research Council (NRC) (1983) Changing climate. National Academy Press, Washington

    Google Scholar 

  • National Research Council (NRC) (2010) Adapting to the impacts of climate change. National Academy Press, Washington

    Google Scholar 

  • Oetting J (2010) A survey of rare species threatened by sea level rise in Florida. Presentation at symposium, “Keeping Our Heads Above Water: Surviving the Challenges of Sea-Level Rise in Florida,” Archbold Biological Station, Lake Placid, Florida, 18–20 January 2010. http://www.flconservationscience.org/pdfs/Oetting.pdf

  • Oreskes N, Conway EM (2010) Merchants of doubt: how a handful of scientists obscured the truth on issues from tobacco smoke to global warming. Bloomsbury, New York

    Google Scholar 

  • Park J, Obeysekera J, Irizarry M, Barnes J, Trimble P, Park-Said W (2011) Storm surge projections and implications for water management in South Florida. Clim Change. doi:10.1007/s10584-011-0079-8

    Google Scholar 

  • Parkinson RW, McCue T (2011) Assessing municipal vulnerability to predicted sea level rise: City of Satellite Beach, Florida. Clim Change. doi:10.1007/s10584-011-0086-9

    Google Scholar 

  • Parmesan C, Matthews J (2006) Biological impacts of climate change. In: Groom MJ, Meffe GK, Carroll CR (eds) Principles of conservation biology, 3rd edn. Sinauer, Sunderland, pp 333–374

    Google Scholar 

  • Parmesan C, Yohe G (2003) A globally coherent fingerprint of climate change impacts across natural systems. Nature 421:37–42

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Peters RL, Darling JDS (1985) The greenhouse effect and nature reserves. Bioscience 35:707–717

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Pilkey OH, Young R (2009) The rising sea. Island Press, Washington

    Google Scholar 

  • Pounds JA, Bustamante MR, Coloma LA, Consuegra JA et al (2006) Widespread amphibian extinctions from epidemic disease driven by global warming. Nature 439:161–167

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Povilitis A, Suckling K (2010) Addressing climate change threats to endangered species in U.S. recovery plans. Conserv Biol 24:372–376

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rahmstorf S, Cazenave A, Church JA, Hansen JE, Keeling RF, Parker DE, Somerville RCJ (2007) Recent climate observations compared to projections. Science 316:709

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rohr JR, Raffel TR, Romansic JM, McCallum H, Hudsoon PJ (2008) Evaluating the links between climate, disease spread, and amphibian declines. Proc Natl Acad Sci 105:17436–17441

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Root TL, Price JT, May KR, Schneider SH, Rosenzweig S, Pounds JA (2003) Fingerprints of global warming on wild animals and plants. Nature 421:57–60

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rosenzweig C, Karoly D, Vicarelli M, Neofotis P et al (2008) Attributing physical and biological impacts to anthropogenic climate change. Nature 453:353–357

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ross MS, O’Brien JJ, Ford RG, Zhang K, Morkill A (2009) Disturbance and the rising tide: the challenge of biodiversity management on low-island ecosystems. Front Ecol Environ 7:471–478

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Saha AK, Saha S, Sadle J, Jiang J, Ross MS, Price RM, Sternberg LSLO, Wendelberger KS (2011a) Sea level rise and South Florida coastal forests. Clim Change. doi:10.1007/s10584-011-0082-0

    Google Scholar 

  • Saha S, Bradley K, Ross MS, Hughes P, Wilmers T, Ruiz PL, Bergh C (2011b) Hurricane effects on subtropical pine rocklands of the Florida Keys. Clim Change. doi:10.1007/s10584-011-0081-1

    Google Scholar 

  • Sala OE, Chapin FS, Armesto JJ, Berlow E et al (2000) Biodiversity: global biodiversity scenarios for the year 2100. Science 287:1770–1774

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Solomon S, Plattner GK, Knutti R, Friedlingstein P (2009) Irreversible climate change due to carbon dioxide emissions. Proc Natl Acad Sci 106:1704–1709

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sorrie BA, Weakley AS (2001) Coastal plain vascular plant endemics: phytogeographic patterns. Castanea 66:50–82

    Google Scholar 

  • Thomas CD, Cameron A, Green RE, Bakkenes M et al (2004) Extinction risk from climate change. Nature 427:145–148

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Thomas CD, Franco AMA, Hill JK (2006) Range retractions and extinction in the face of climate warming. Trends Ecol Evol 21:415–416

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Titus JG (1998) Rising seas, coastal erosion, and the takings clause: how to save wetlands and beaches without hurting property owners. MD Law Rev 57:1279–1399.

    Google Scholar 

  • Turner WR, Bradley BA, Estes LD, Hole DG, Oppenheimer M, Wilcove DS (2010) Climate change: helping nature survive the human response. Conserv Lett 3:304–312

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • United States Census Bureau (2010) 2010 census data results. http://2010.census.gov/2010census/

  • Vermeer M, Rahmstorf S (2009) Global sea level linked to global temperature. Proc Natl Acad Sci 106:21527–21532

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Von Holle B, Wei Y, Nickerson D (2010) Climatic variability leads to later seasonal flowering of Floridian plants. PLOS ONE 5(7):e11500

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Weiss J, Overpeck J (2003) Maps of areas susceptible to sea level rise. Environmental Studies Laboratory, Dept Geosciences, Univ Arizona. http://www.geo.arizona.edu/dgesl/research/other/climate_change_and_sea_level/sea_level_rise/sea_level_rise.htm

  • Willard DA, Bernhardt CE (2011) Impacts of past climate and sea level change on Everglades wetlands: placing a century of anthropogenic change into a late-Holocene context. Clim Change. doi:10.1007/s10584-011-0078-9

    Google Scholar 

  • Willis SG, Hill JK, Thomas CD, Roy DB, Fox R, Blakeley DS, Huntley B (2009) Assisted colonization in a changing climate: a test-study using two U.K. butterflies. Conserv Lett 2:45–51

    Google Scholar 

  • Wilson SG, Fischetti TR (2010) Coastline population trends in the United States: 1960 to 2008. US Dept Commerce, US Census Bureau, Washington

    Google Scholar 

  • Zhang K, Dittmar J, Ross M, Bergh C (2011) Assessment of sea level rise impacts on human population and real property in the Florida Keys. Clim Change. doi:10.1007/s10584-011-0080-2

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Reed F. Noss.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Noss, R.F. Between the devil and the deep blue sea: Florida’s unenviable position with respect to sea level rise. Climatic Change 107, 1–16 (2011). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0109-6

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0109-6

Keywords

Navigation