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Evolution of drought severity and its impact on corn in the Republic of Moldova

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Abstract

Droughts in Moldova were evaluated using meteorological data since 1955 and a long time series (1891–2009). In addition, yields for corn (Zea mays L.), a crop widely grown in Moldova, were used to demonstrate drought impact. The main aim is to propose use of the S i (S i-a and S i-m) drought index while discussing its potential use in studying the evolution of drought severity in Moldova. Also, a new multi-scalar drought index, the standardized precipitation–evapotranspiration index (SPEI), is tested for the first time in identifying drought variability in Moldova while comparing it with the commonly used standardized precipitation index (SPI). S i-m, SPI, SPEI, and S i-a indices show an increasing tendency toward more intensive and prolonged severely dry and extremely dry summer months. Drought frequency increased through six decades, which included long dry periods in the 1990s and 2000s. Moreover, the evolution of summer evapotranspiration recorded a positive and significant trend (+3.3 mm/year, R 2 = 0.46; p ≤ 0.05) between 1955 and 2009. A yield model based on the S i-a agricultural index and historic corn yields explained 43% of observed variability in corn production when drought occurred in May, July, and August. Increasing severity of the 20-year drought during the critical part of the growing season is raising corn yield losses, as net losses have so far exceeded net gains.

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Acknowledgments

This work was financially supported by project MSM no. 6046070901 from the Ministry of Education, Youth and Sports of the Czech Republic. The author would like to thank Sergio M. Vicente-Serrano (Instituto Pirenaico de Ecologia-CSIC, Zaragoza, Spain) for providing the detailed algorithm to calculate automatically the SPEI, SPI, and PET. The anonymous reviewers are also acknowledged for their useful and constructive criticism of the manuscript.

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  1. Department of Agroecology and Biometeorology, Faculty of Agrobiology, Food and Natural Resources, Czech University of Life Sciences, Prague, Czech Republic

    Vera Potop

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Correspondence to Vera Potop.

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Potop, V. Evolution of drought severity and its impact on corn in the Republic of Moldova. Theor Appl Climatol 105, 469–483 (2011). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-011-0403-2

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-011-0403-2

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