Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

Influence of Indian Ocean Dipole and Pacific recharge on following year’s El Niño: interdecadal robustness

  • Published:
Climate Dynamics Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) can affect the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) state of the following year, in addition to the well-known preconditioning by equatorial Pacific Warm Water Volume (WWV), as suggested by a study based on observations over the recent satellite era (1981–2009). The present paper explores the interdecadal robustness of this result over the 1872–2008 period. To this end, we develop a robust IOD index, which well exploits sparse historical observations in the tropical Indian Ocean, and an efficient proxy of WWV interannual variations based on the temporal integral of Pacific zonal wind stress (of a historical atmospheric reanalysis). A linear regression hindcast model based on these two indices in boreal fall explains 50 % of ENSO peak variance 14 months later, with significant contributions from both the IOD and WWV over most of the historical period and a similar skill for El Niño and La Niña events. Our results further reveal that, when combined with WWV, the IOD index provides a larger ENSO hindcast skill improvement than the Indian Ocean basin-wide mode, the Indian Monsoon or ENSO itself. Based on these results, we propose a revised scheme of Indo-Pacific interactions. In this scheme, the IOD–ENSO interactions favour a biennial timescale and interact with the slower recharge-discharge cycle intrinsic to the Pacific Ocean.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5
Fig. 6
Fig. 7
Fig. 8
Fig. 9
Fig. 10
Fig. 11
Fig. 12
Fig. 13

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Abram NJ, Gagan MK, Cole JE, Hantoro WS, Mudelsee M (2008) Recent intensification of tropical climate variability in the Indian Ocean. Nat Geosci 1:849–853

    Google Scholar 

  • An S-I, Wang B (2000) Interdecadal change of the structure of the ENSO mode and its impact on the ENSO frequency. J Clim 13:2044–2055

    Google Scholar 

  • An S-I, Hsieh WW, Jin F-F (2005) A nonlinear analysis of the ENSO cycle and its interdecadal changes. J Clim 18:3229–3239

    Google Scholar 

  • Annamalai H, Murtugudde R (2004) Role of the Indian Ocean in regional climate variability. In: Wang C, Xie S-P, Carton JA (eds) Earth climate: the ocean-atmosphere interaction. AGU Geophysical Monograph 147:213–246

  • Annamalai H, Murtugudde R, Potemra J, Xie SP, Liu P, Wang B (2003) Coupled dynamics in the Indian Ocean: spring initiation of the zonal mode. Deep-Sea Res 50B:2305–2330

    Google Scholar 

  • Annamalai H, Xie S-P, McCreary J-P, Murtugudde R (2005) Impact of Indian Ocean sea surface temperature on developing El Niño. J Clim 18:302–319

    Google Scholar 

  • Annamalai H, Kida S, Hafner J (2010) Potential impact of the tropical Indian Ocean-Indonesian Seas on El Niño characteristics. J Clim 23:3933–3952

    Google Scholar 

  • Ashok K, Saji NH (2007) On impacts of ENSO and Indian Ocean Dipole events on the sub-regional Indian summer monsoon rainfall. Nat Hazards 42(2):273–285. doi:10.1007/s11069-006-9091-0

    Google Scholar 

  • Ashok K, Guan Z, Yamagata T (2001) Impact of the Indian Ocean Dipole on the relationship between the Indian Monsoon rainfall and ENSO. Geophys Res Lett 28:4499–4502

    Google Scholar 

  • Ashok K, Guan Z, Saji NH, Yamagata T (2004) Individual and combined influences of the ENSO and Indian Ocean Dipole on the Indian summer monsoon. J Clim 17:3141–3155

    Google Scholar 

  • Barnett TP (1983) Interaction of the Monsoon and Pacific trade wind system at interannual time scales. Part I: the equatorial zone. Mon Wea Rev 111:756–773

    Google Scholar 

  • Battisti DS, Hirst AC (1989) Interannual variability in the tropical atmosphere-ocean model: influence of the basic state, ocean geometry and nonlineary. J Atmos Sci 45:1687–1712

    Google Scholar 

  • Behera SK, Yamagata T (2003) Influence of the Indian Ocean Dipole on the Southern Oscillation. J Meteorol Soc Jpn 81(1):169–177

    Google Scholar 

  • Behera SK, Krishnan R, Yamagata T (1999) Unusual ocean-atmosphere conditions in the tropical Indian Ocean during 1994. Geophys Res Lett 26:3001–3004

    Google Scholar 

  • Behera SK, Luo J-J, Masson S, Rao SA, Sakuma H, Yamagata T (2006) A CGCM study on the interaction between IOD and ENSO. J Clim 19:1688–1705

    Google Scholar 

  • Bentamy A, Quilfen Y, Gohin F, Grima N, Lenaour M, Servain J (1996) Determination and validation of average field from ERS-1 scatterometer measurements. Global Atmos Ocean Syst 4:1–29

    Google Scholar 

  • Bjerknes J (1969) Atmospheric teleconnections from the equatorial Pacific. Mon Weather Rev 97:163–172

    Google Scholar 

  • Boschat G, Terray P, Masson S (2012) Robustness of SST teleconnections and precursory patterns associated with the Indian summer monsoon. Clim Dyn 38(11–12):2143–2165. ISSN 0930-7575

    Google Scholar 

  • Brown JN, Fedorov AV (2010) Estimating the diapycnal transport contribution to warm water volume variations in the tropical Pacific Ocean. J Clim 23:221–237

    Google Scholar 

  • Bunge L, Clarke AJ (2009) A verified estimation of the El Niño index NINO3.4 since 1877. J Clim 22(14):3979–3992

    Google Scholar 

  • Burgers G, Jin F-F, van Oldenborgh GJ (2005) The simplest ENSO recharge oscillator. Geophys Res Lett 32:L13706. doi:10.1029/2005GL022951

    Google Scholar 

  • Chang P, Zhang L, Saravanan R, Vimont DJ, Chiang JCH, Ji L, Seidel H, Tippett MK (2007) Pacific meridional mode and El Niño–Southern Oscillation. Geophys Res Lett 34:L16608. doi:10.1029/2007GL030302

    Google Scholar 

  • Cherchi A, Navarra A (2012) Influence of ENSO and of the Indian Ocean Dipole on the Indian summer monsoon variability. Clim Dyn. doi: 10.1007/s00382-012-1602-y

  • Chowdary JS, Xie S-P, Tokinaga H, Okumura YM, Kubota H, Johnson NC, Zheng X-T (2012) Interdecadal variations in ENSO teleconnection to the Indo-western Pacific for 1870–2007. J Clim 25:1722

    Google Scholar 

  • Clarke AJ (2008) An introduction to the dynamics of El Niño & the Southern Oscillation. Elsevier (Academic Press). ISBN: 978-0-12-088548-0

    Google Scholar 

  • Clarke AJ, Van Gorder S (2003) Improving El Niño prediction using a space-time integration of Indo-Pacific winds and equatorial Pacific upper ocean heat content. Geophys Res Lett 30(7):1399. doi:10.1029/2002GL016673

    Google Scholar 

  • Collins M, An S-I, Cai W, Ganachaud A, Guilyardi E, Jin F-F, Jochum M, Lengaigne M, Power S, Timmermann A, Vecchi G, Wittenberg A (2010) The impact of global warming on the tropical Pacific Ocean and El Niño. Nat Geosci 3:391–397

    Google Scholar 

  • Compo GP et al (2011) The twentieth century reanalysis project. Q J R Meteorol Soc 137:1–28. doi:10.1002/qj.776

    Google Scholar 

  • Ding H, Keenlyside NS, Latif M (2011) Impact of the equatorial Atlantic on the El Niño Southern Oscillation. Clim Dyn. doi:10.1007/s00382-011-1097-y

  • Fasullo J (2004) Biennial characteristics of All India rainfall. J Clim 17:2972–2982

    Google Scholar 

  • Fedorov AV (2002) The response of the coupled tropical ocean–atmosphere to westerly wind bursts. Q J R Meteorol Soc 128:1–23

    Google Scholar 

  • Fedorov AV (2010) Ocean response to wind variations, warm water volume, and simple models of ENSO in the low-frequency approximation. J Clim 23:3855–3873

    Google Scholar 

  • Fischer A, Terray P, Guilyardi E, Gualdi S, Delecluse P (2005) Two independent triggers for the Indian Ocean Dipole/Zonal Mode in a coupled GCM. J Clim 18:3428–3449

    Google Scholar 

  • Gadgil S, Vinayachandran PN, Francis PA, Gadgil S (2004) Extremes of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall, ENSO, and equatorial Indian Ocean oscillation. Geophys Res Lett 31:1821. doi:10.1029/2004GL019733

    Google Scholar 

  • Gershunov A, Schneider N, Barnett T (2001) Low frequency modulation of the ENSO-Indian monsoon rainfall relationship: signal or noise. J Clim 14:2486–2492

    Google Scholar 

  • Goddard L, Philander SGH (2000) The energetics of El Niño and La Niña. J Clim 13:1496–1516

    Google Scholar 

  • Hoerling MP, Kumar A, Xu T-Y (2001) Robustness of the nonlinear atmospheric response to opposite phases of ENSO. J Clim 14:1277–1293

    Google Scholar 

  • Huffman GJ, Adler RF, Arkin PA, Chang A, Ferraro R, Gruber A, Janowiak J, Joyce RJ, McNab A, Rudolf B, Schneider U, Xie P (1997) The global precipitation climatology project (GPCP) combined precipitation data set. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 78:5–20

    Google Scholar 

  • Izumo T, de Boyer Montégut C, Luo J-J, Behera SK, Masson S, Yamagata T (2008) The role of the western Arabian Sea upwelling in Indian monsoon rainfall variability. J Clim 21:5603–5623

    Google Scholar 

  • Izumo T, Vialard J, Lengaigne M, de Boyer Montégut C, Behera SK, Luo J-J, Cravatte S, Masson S, Yamagata T (2010a) Influence of the Indian Ocean Dipole on following year’s El Niño. Nat Geosci 3:168–172

    Google Scholar 

  • Izumo T, Masson S, Vialard J, de Boyer Montegut C, Behera SK, Madec G, Takahashi K, Yamagata T (2010b) Low and high frequency Madden-Julian Oscillations in Austral Summer—interannual variations. Clim Dyn 35:669–683

    Google Scholar 

  • Jansen MF, Dommenget D, Keenlyside N (2009) Tropical atmosphere-ocean interactions in a conceptual framework. J Clim 22:550–567

    Google Scholar 

  • Jin FF (1997a) An equatorial ocean recharge paradigm for ENSO. Part I: conceptual model. J Atmos Sci 54:811–829

    Google Scholar 

  • Jin FF (1997b) An equatorial ocean recharge paradigm for ENSO. Part II: a stripped-down coupled model. J Atmos Sci 54:830–847

    Google Scholar 

  • Kanamitsu M, Ebisuzaki W, Woollen J, Yang S-K, Hnilo JJ, Fiorino M, Potter GL (2002) NCEP-DOE AMIP-II reanalysis. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 83:1631–1643

    Google Scholar 

  • Klein SA, Soden BJ, Lau NC (1999) Remote sea surface temperature variations during ENSO: evidence for a tropical atmospheric bridge. J Clim 12:917–932

    Google Scholar 

  • Krishna Kumar KK, Rajagopalan KB, Cane MA (1999) On the weakening relationship between the Indian monsoon and ENSO. Science 284:2156–2159

    Google Scholar 

  • Krishnamurti TN, Chu SH, Iglesias W (1986) On the sea-level pressure of the Southern Oscillation. Arch Meteorol Geophys Bioclimatol Ser A Meteorol Geophys 34:384–425

    Google Scholar 

  • Krishnan R, Swapna P (2009) Significance influence of the boreal summer monsoon flow on the Indian Ocean response during dipole events. J Clim 22:5611–563410

    Google Scholar 

  • Kug J-S, Ham Y-G (2012) Indian Ocean feedback to the ENSO transition in a multi-model ensemble. J Clim 25:6942–6957. doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00078.1

    Google Scholar 

  • Kug J-S, Kang I-S (2006) Interactive feedback between the Indian Ocean and ENSO. J Clim 19:1784–1801

    Google Scholar 

  • Kug J-S, Li T, An S-I, Kang I-S, Luo J-J, Masson S, Yamagata T (2006) Role of the ENSO–Indian Ocean coupling on ENSO variability in a coupled GCM. Geophys Res Lett 33:L09710. doi:10.1029/2005GL024916

    Google Scholar 

  • Leloup JA, Lachkar Z, Boulanger JP, Thiria S (2007) Detecting decadal changes in ENSO using neural networks. Clim Dyn. doi:10.1007/s00382-006-0173-1

    Google Scholar 

  • Lengaigne M, Boulanger J-P, Menkes C, Delecluse P, Slingo J (2004) Westerly wind events in the tropical Pacific and their influence on the coupled ocean-atmosphere system: a review. In: Earth climate: the ocean-atmosphere interaction, Geophys. Monogr. Ser., 147. AGU, Washington, DC, pp 49–69

  • Lengaigne M, Hausmann U, Madec G, Menkes C, Vialard J, Molines JM (2012) Mechanisms controlling warm water volume interannual variations in the equatorial Pacific: diabatic versus adiabatic processes. Clim Dyn 38:1031–1046. doi:10.1007/s00382-011-1051-z

    Google Scholar 

  • Liebmann B, Smith CA (1996) Description of a complete (interpolated) outgoing longwave radiation dataset. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 77:1275–1277

    Google Scholar 

  • Loschnigg J, Meehl GA, Webster PJ, Arblaster JM, Compo GP (2003) The Asian monsoon, the tropospheric biennial oscillationand the Indian Ocean Dipole in the NCAR CSM. J Clim 16:2138–2158

    Google Scholar 

  • Luo J-J, Masson S, Roeckner E, Madec G, Yamagata T (2005) Reducing climatology bias in an ocean-atmosphere CGCM with improved coupling physics. J Clim 18:2344–2360

    Google Scholar 

  • Luo J-J, Behera S, Masumoto Y, Sakuma H, Yamagata T (2008) Successful prediction of the consecutive IOD in 2006 and 2007. Geophys Res Lett 35:L14S02. doi:10.1029/2007GL032793

    Google Scholar 

  • Luo J-J, Zhang R, Behera S, Masumoto Y, Jin F-F, Lukas R, Yamagata T (2010) Interaction between El Niño and extreme Indian Ocean Dipole. J Clim 23:726–742

    Google Scholar 

  • Madec G, Delecluse P, Imbard M, Levy C (1998) OPA 8.1 Ocean general circulation model reference manual. Notes du pôle de modélisation de l’IPSL 11, 91 pp, available at http://www.lodyc.jussieu.fr/opa

  • Masson S et al (2005) Impact of barrier layer on winter-spring variability of the southeastern Arabian Sea. Geophys Res Lett 32:L07703. doi:10.1029/2004GL021980

    Google Scholar 

  • Meehl GA (1987) The annual cycle and interannual variability in the tropical Pacific and Indian Ocean region. Mon Wea Rev 115:27–50

    Google Scholar 

  • Meehl GA, Arblaster JM (2011) Decadal variability of Asian- Australian monsoon-ENSO-TBO relationships. J Clim 24:4925–4940

    Google Scholar 

  • Meehl GA, Arblaster JM, Loschnigg J (2003) Coupled ocean-atmosphere dynamical processes in the tropical Indian and Pacific Ocean regions and the TBO. J Clim 16:2138–2158

    Google Scholar 

  • Meinen CS, McPhaden MJ (2000) Observations of warm water volume changes in the equatorial Pacific and their relationship to El Niño and La Niña. J Clim 13:3551–3559

    Google Scholar 

  • Murtugudde R, Busalacchi AJ (1999) Interannual variability of the dynamics and thermodynamics of the tropical Indian Ocean. J Clim 12:2300–2326

    Google Scholar 

  • Murtugudde R, McCreary JP, Busalacchi AJ (2000) Oceanic processes associated with anomalous events in the Indian Ocean with relevance to 1997–1998. J Geophys Res 105:3295–3306

    Google Scholar 

  • Neelin JD, Battisti DS, Hirst AC, Jin F-F, Wakata Y, Yamagata T, Zebiak SE (1998) ENSO theory. J Geophys Res 103:14261–14290

    Google Scholar 

  • Nicholls N (1984) The Southern Oscillation and Indonesian sea surface temperature. Mon Wea Rev 112:424–432

    Google Scholar 

  • Ohba M, Ueda H (2005) Basin-wide warming in the equatorial Indian Ocean associated with El Niño. Scientific Online Lett Atmos 1:089–092. doi:10.2151/sola

    Google Scholar 

  • Ohba M, Ueda H (2007) An impact of SST anomalies in the Indian Ocean in acceleration of the El Niño to La Niña transition. J Meteorol Soc Jpn 85:335–348

    Google Scholar 

  • Ohba M, Ueda H (2009a) Role of nonlinear atmospheric response to SST on the asymmetric transition process of ENSO. J Clim 22:177–192

    Google Scholar 

  • Ohba M, Ueda H (2009b) Seasonally different response of the Indian Ocean to the remote forcing of El Niño: linking the dynamics and thermodynamics. SOLA 5:176–179. doi:10.2151/sola.2009-045

    Google Scholar 

  • Ohba M, Watanabe M (2012) Role of the Indo-Pacific interbasin coupling in predicting asymmetric ENSO transition and duration. J Clim 25(9):3321–3335

    Google Scholar 

  • Ohba M, Nohara D, Ueda H (2010) Simulation of asymmetric ENSO transition in WCRP CMIP3 multi-model experiments. J Clim. doi:10.1175/2010JCLI3608.1

  • Okumura YM, Deser C (2010) Asymmetry in the duration of El Niño and La Niña. J Clim 23:5826–5843

    Google Scholar 

  • Okumura YM, Ohba M, Deser C, Ueda H (2011) A proposed mechanism for the asymmetric duration of El Niño and La Niña. J Clim 24:3822–3829

    Google Scholar 

  • Parthasarathy B, Munot AA, Kothawale DR (1994) All India monthly and seasonal rainfall series—1871–1993. Theor Appl Climatol 49:217–224

    Google Scholar 

  • Philander SG (1990) El Niño, La Niña, and the Southern Oscillation. ix + 293 pp. San Diego, New York, Berkeley, Boston, London, Sydney, Tokyo. In: International Geophysics Series Vol. 46. Academic Press (Harcourt Brace Jovanovich), Toronto. ISBN 0 12 553235 0

  • Picaut J, Masia F, du Penhoat Y (1997) An advective-reflective conceptual model for the oscillatory nature of the ENSO. Science 277:663–666

    Google Scholar 

  • Rayner NA, Parker DE, Horton EB, Folland CK, Alexander LV, Rowell DP, Kent EC, Kaplan A (2003) Global analyses of sea surface temperature, sea ice, and night marine air temperature since the late nineteenth century. J Geophys Res 108(D14):4407. doi:10.1029/2002JD002670

    Google Scholar 

  • Rayner NA, Brohan P, Parker DE, Folland CK, Kennedy JJ, Vanicek M, Ansell T, Tett SFB (2006) Improved analyses of changes and uncertainties in sea surface temperature measured in situ since the mid-nineteenth century: the HadSST2 data set. J Clim 19(3):446–469

    Google Scholar 

  • Reverdin G, Cadet D, Gutzler D (1986) Interannual displacements of convection and surface circulation over the equatorial Indian Ocean. Q J R Meteorol Soc 112:43–46

    Google Scholar 

  • Reynolds RW, Rayner NA, Smith TM, Stokes DC, Wang W (2002) An improved in situ and satellite SST analysis for climate. J Clim 15:1609–1625

    Google Scholar 

  • Rodriguez-Fonseca B, Polo I, Garcia-Serrano J, Losada T, Mohino E, Mechoso CR, Kucharski F (2009) Are the Atlantic Ninos enhancing Pacific ENSO events in recent decades? Geophys Res Lett 36:L20705. doi:10.1029/2009GL040048

    Google Scholar 

  • Roeckner E et al (1996) The atmospheric general circulation model ECHAM-4: Model description and simulation of present-day climate. Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie Rep., 218, 90 pp

  • Rudolf B et al (2010) GPCC Status Report December 2010 (On the most recent gridded global data set issued in fall 2010 by the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC))

  • Saji NH, Goswami BN, Vinayachandran PN, Yamagata T (1999) A dipole mode in the tropical Indian Ocean. Nature 401:360–363

    Google Scholar 

  • Santoso A, England MH, Cai W (2012) Impact of Indo-Pacific feedback interactions on ENSO dynamics diagnosed using ensemble climate simulations. J Clim 25:7743–7763. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00287.1

    Google Scholar 

  • Schopf PS, Suarez MJ (1988) Vacillations in a coupled ocean-atmosphere model. J Atmos Sci 45:549–566

    Google Scholar 

  • Smith NR (1995) An improved system for tropical ocean sub-surface temperature analyses. J Atmos Ocean Technol 12:850–870

    Google Scholar 

  • Smith TM, Reynolds RW, Peterson TC, Lawrimore J (2008) Improvements to NOAA’s historical merged land–ocean surface temperature analysis (1880–2006). J Clim 21:2283–2296. doi:10.1175/2007JCLI2100.1

    Google Scholar 

  • Tamura T, Koike T, Yamamoto A, Yasukawa M, Kitsuregawa M (2011) Contrasting impacts of the Indian Ocean Dipole and ENSO on the tropospheric biennial oscillation. SOLA 7:13–16

    Google Scholar 

  • Terray P, Dominiak S (2005) Indian Ocean sea surface temperature and El Niño-Southern Oscillation: a new perspective. J Clim 18:1351–1368

    Google Scholar 

  • Terray P, Dominiak S, Delecluse P (2005) Role of the southern Indian Ocean in the transitions of the monsoon-ENSO system during recent decades. Clim Dyn 24:169–195. doi:10.1007/s00382-004-0480-3

    Google Scholar 

  • Terray P (2011) Southern hemisphere extra-tropical forcing: a new paradigm for El Niño-Southern Oscillation. Clim Dyn 36:2171–2199

    Google Scholar 

  • Trenberth KE, Branstator GW, Karoly D, Kumar A, Lau N-C, Ropelewski C (1998) Progress during TOGA in understanding and modeling global teleconnections associated with tropical sea surface temperatures. J Geophys Res 103:14291–14324

    Google Scholar 

  • Ummenhofer CC, England MH, McIntosh PC, Meyers GA, Pook MJ, Risbey JS, Sen Gupta A, Taschetto AS (2009) What causes Southeast Australia’s worst droughts? Geophys Res Lett 36:L04706. doi:10.1029/2008GL036801

    Google Scholar 

  • Ummenhofer CC, Sen Gupta A, Li Y, Taschetto AS, England MH (2011) Multi-decadal modulation of the El Niño-Indian monsoon relationship by Indian Ocean variability. Environ Res Lett 6:034006. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/6/3/034006

    Google Scholar 

  • van Oldenborgh GJ, Burgers G (2005) Searching for decadal variations in ENSO precipitation teleconnections. Geophys Res Lett 32(15):L15701

    Google Scholar 

  • Vialard J, Menkes C, Boulanger J-P, Delecluse P, Guilyardi E, McPhaden MJ, Madec G (2001) A model study of oceanic mechanisms affecting equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature during the 1997–98 El Niño. J Phys Oceanogr 31:1649–1675

    Google Scholar 

  • Vimont DJ, Wallace JM, Battisti DS (2003) The seasonal footprinting mechanism in the Pacific: implications for ENSO. J Clim 16:2668–2675

    Google Scholar 

  • Walker GT (1924) World weather IX. Mem Indian Meteorol Dept 24:275–332

    Google Scholar 

  • Wang C, Picaut J (2004) Understanding ENSO physics—a review. In: Wang C, Xie S-P, Carton JA (eds) Earth’s climate: the ocean-atmosphere interaction. AGU Geophysical Monograph Series 147:21–48

  • Watanabe M (2008a) Two regimes of the equatorial warm pool. Part I: a simple tropical climate model. J Clim 21:3533–3544

    Google Scholar 

  • Watanabe M (2008b) Two regimes of the equatorial warm pool. Part II: hybrid coupled GCM experiments. J Clim 21:3545–3560

    Google Scholar 

  • Watanabe M, Jin F-F (2002) Role of Indian Ocean warming in the development of Philippine Sea anticyclone during ENSO. Geophys Res Lett 29(10):1478. doi:10.1029/2001GL014318

    Google Scholar 

  • Webster PJ, Hoyos CD (2010) Beyond the spring barrier? Nat Geosci 3:152–153. doi:10.1038/ngeo800

    Google Scholar 

  • Webster PJ, Moore A, Loschnigg J, Leban M (1999) Coupled dynamics in the Indian Ocean during 1997–1998. Nature 401:356–360

    Google Scholar 

  • Webster PJ, Clark C, Chrikova G, Fasullo J, Han W, Loschnigg J, Sahami K (2002) The monsoon as a self-regulating coupled ocean-atmosphere system. In: Pierce R (ed) Meteorology at the Millennium. Academic press, London, pp 198–219

  • Wu R, Kirtman BP (2004) Understanding the impacts of the Indian Ocean on ENSO variability in a coupled GCM. J Clim 17:4019–4031

    Google Scholar 

  • Wyrtki K (1975) El Niño—the dynamic response of the equatorial Pacific Ocean to atmospheric forcing. J Phys Oceanogr 5(4):572–584

    Google Scholar 

  • Wyrtki K (1985) Water displacements in the Pacific and the genesis of El Niño cycles. J Geophys Res 90:7129–7132

    Google Scholar 

  • Xavier PK, Marzin C, Goswami BN (2007) An objective definition of the Indian summer monsoon season and a new perspective on ENSO-monsoon relationship. Q J R Meteorol Soc 133:749–764

    Google Scholar 

  • Xie S-P, Hu K, Hafner J, Tokinaga H, Du Y, Huang G, Sampe T (2009) Indian Ocean capacitor effect on Indo-western Pacific climate during the summer following El Niño. J Clim 22:730–747

    Google Scholar 

  • Yamagata T, Behera SK, Luo J-J, Masson S, Jury MR, Rao SA (2004) The coupled ocean-atmosphere variability in the tropical Indian Ocean. Earth’s climate: the ocean-atmosphere interaction. Geophys Monogr 147:189–211

    Google Scholar 

  • Yamanaka G, Yasuda T, Fujii Y, Matsumoto S (2009) Rapid termination of the 2006 El Niño and its relation to the Indian Ocean. Geophys Res Lett 36:L07702. doi:10.1029/2009GL037298

    Google Scholar 

  • Yasunari T (1985) Zonally propagating modes of the global East-West circulation associated with the Southern Oscillation. J Meteorol Soc Jpn 63:1013–1029

    Google Scholar 

  • Yu J-Y (2005) Enhancement of ENSO’s persistence barrier by biennial variability in a coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model. Geophys Res Lett 32:L13707. doi:10.1029/2005GL023406

    Google Scholar 

  • Yu J-Y, Mechoso CR, McWilliams JC, Arakawa A (2002) Impact of the Indian Ocean on the ENSO cycle. Geophys Res Lett 29:1204. doi:10.1029/2001GL014098

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgments

We thank Dr. Sébastien Masson and Dr. Swadhin Behera for constructive comments on this paper. We would like to thank Dr. Lucia Bunge for sending us the ENSO historical indices of Bunge and Clarke (2009), as well as Dr. Tomoki Tozuka, Dr. Pascal Oettli, Dr. Sophie Cravatte, Dr. Caroline Ummenhofer, Dr. Pascal Terray, Hugo Dayan and Chloe Prodhomme for their help and fruitful discussions. We would like to thank the three anonymous reviewers, as well as Dr Julie Arblaster, for their constructive comments. The first author would like to thank Pr. Toshio Yamagata and his colleagues at the University of Tokyo, especially Miss Junko Moriyama, for their hospitality and help during his stay there. The first author was funded by the University of Tokyo (partly through the SATREPS JICA/JST program) and now by the Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD). Matthieu Lengaigne and Jérôme Vialard are funded by IRD. Matthieu Lengaigne gratefully acknowledges the National Institute of Oceanography (NIO, Goa, India) for hosting him during this work. Support for the 20CR project is provided by the US DOE INCITE program, and BER, and by the NOAA Climate Program Office. Also, the NOAA and IRI data libraries were used for this study. The IODhist and WWVhist historical indices constructed here are available at http://www.locean-ipsl.upmc.fr/~Takeshi-Izumo/data.html.

Author information

Author notes

  1. Takeshi Izumo

    Present address: Laboratoire d’Océanographie: Expérimentation et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN), IRD, CNRS, UPMC, Case 100, 4 Place Jussieu, 75252, Paris Cedex 05, France

  2. Toshio Yamagata

    Present address: Application Laboratory, JAMSTEC, Yokohama, Japan

  3. Jing-Jia Luo

    Present address: CAWCR, Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, Australia

Authors and Affiliations

  1. University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan

    Takeshi Izumo & Toshio Yamagata

  2. Laboratoire d’Océanographie: Expérimentation et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN), IRD, CNRS, UPMC, Case 100, 4 Place Jussieu, 75252, Paris Cedex 05, France

    Matthieu Lengaigne, Jérôme Vialard & Gurvan Madec

  3. National Oceanographic Centre, Southampton, UK

    Gurvan Madec

  4. Research Institute for Global Change, JAMSTEC, Yokohama, Japan

    Jing-Jia Luo

Authors
  1. Takeshi Izumo
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Matthieu Lengaigne
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Jérôme Vialard
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. Jing-Jia Luo
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  5. Toshio Yamagata
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  6. Gurvan Madec
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Takeshi Izumo.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Izumo, T., Lengaigne, M., Vialard, J. et al. Influence of Indian Ocean Dipole and Pacific recharge on following year’s El Niño: interdecadal robustness. Clim Dyn 42, 291–310 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-012-1628-1

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-012-1628-1

Keywords

Search

Navigation