Risk analysis for RoPax vessels

Abstract

The paper presents the results of a recent risk analysis study for RoPax vessels, carried out as part of the activities of the SAFEDOR Integrated Project. The objective of this study was to investigate the causes of hazards during RoPax operation and quantify, to the extent possible, their frequencies and consequences. Potential scenarios initially identified and prioritised during a Hazard Identification (HAZID) session were used in the process.

The work has been performed in accordance with the IMO FSA Guidelines (IMO 2002). A previous comprehensive study on the safety assessment of RoPax vessels sailing in North West European waters, covering the period until 1994, was used as the basis in putting together a high-level risk model for the current study. All scenarios are presented in the form of event trees, quantification of which is done on the basis of world-wide accident experience (from 1994 to2004), relevant past studies and judgment. The study estimates the risk of loss of life among passengers and crew (by calculating for each scenario the Individual Risk, the Potential Loss of Life — PLL and plotting the corresponding F-N curves), and compares them with current risk acceptance criteria. The resulting high-level risk model is used to provide recommendations for improvement in the form of proposed risk control options (RCOs).