Effects of Climate Change on Paralaudakia lehmanni (Nicolsky, 1896) (Reptilia: Agamidae) in Central Asia

Abstract

Climate change and global warming are the main challenges regarding to the conservation biologists on the world. Reptiles are ectothermic animal and then highly dependent on the habitat temperature and precipitation. To protect reptiles, it is necessary to predict the impact of climate change effect on the species distribution and manage its conservation program. In this study, we aimed to evaluate the impact of climate change on the distribution pattern of Paralaudakia lehmanni in Central Asia. According to the results, the current distribution is predicted from North Afghanistan, Tajikistan, and Kyrgyzstan and the precipitation of coldest quarter (BIO19) was the most contributed bioclimate variable. Future predictions show a similar pattern with the current period and, based on the niche overlap test, the overlap of these patterns was more than 0.85 and indicated no differences between them. Distribution can be affected by the highland distribution of P. lehmanni. Because this species has such an elevated range, precipitation of coldest quarter is not predicted to change much in future and therefore suitable habitats will remain similar to current period. Finally, although there is no predicted impact of climate change on the species distribution pattern in future, the conservation of P. lehmanni is important because of other threats such as human disturbance and predation.