Skip to main content
Log in

Reflecting on the South African Long-Term Mitigation Scenario Process a Decade Later

  • Local/Global Encounters
  • Published:
Development Aims and scope

Abstract

The 2006–2007 Long Term Mitigation Scenario planning process (LTMS) was a seminal South African climate mitigation policy initiative that continues to underpin the country’s climate mitigation policy today. Whilst acknowledging the LTMS’s significant contributions, the article explores how the particular conceptualization of the policy problem under the LTMS as linear, sectoral, technical and environmental might be contributing to inadequate progress on implementation a decade on. Additional constraining factors are identified as being a lack of attention to policy process after the LTMS, and a lack of engagement with the political economy realities of climate mitigation in South Africa.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Fig. 1

Notes

  1. At the time this was the Department of Environmental Affairs and Tourism. In 2009, it was split into two separate departments, with the environmental capacity housed in the current Department of Environmental Affairs (DEA). To avoid confusion, the current acronym is used throughout the text.

  2. www.mapsprogramme.org.

References

  • Booysen, Susan. 2006. Public policy making in South Africa. In Government and politics in the New South Africa, 3rd ed, ed. Albert Venter, and Chris Landsberg. Pretoria: Van Schaik Publishers.

    Google Scholar 

  • Boyd, Anya and Kim Coetzee. 2013. Mitigation action implementation towards an understanding of the variables that affect implementation of mitigation actions. Cape Town: MAPS Programme and TERI.

    Google Scholar 

  • Dubash, N.K. 2009. Will low carbon growth plans help or hurt low carbon growth?. New Delhi: CPR Climate Brief.

    Google Scholar 

  • Edenhofer, Ottmar, Ramón Pichs-Madruga, Youba Sokona, Ellie Farahani, Susanne Kadner, Kristin Seyboth and Jan Minx. (eds.). 2014. Summary for policymakers. In Climate change 2014: Mitigation of climate change. Contribution of Working Group III to the fifth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. New York: Cambridge University Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Emison, Gerald Andrews. 1996. The potential for unconventional progress: Complex adaptive systems and environmental quality policy. Duke Environmental Law and Policy Reform 7: 167–192.

    Google Scholar 

  • Farley, Joshua, Daniel Baker, David Batker, Christopher Koliba, Richard Matteson, Russell Mills, and James Pittman. 2007. Opening the policy window for ecological economics: Katrina as a focusing event. Ecological Economics 63: 344–354.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hallowes, D. 2008. A critical appraisal of the LTMS. Johannesburg: Sustainable Energy and Climate Change Project.

    Google Scholar 

  • Hill, Michael. 2013. The public policy process, 6th ed. Harlow: Pearson.

    Google Scholar 

  • Howlett, Michael, M. Ramesh and Anthony Perl. 2009. Studying public policy: Policy cycles and policy sub-systems, 3rd ed. Ontario: Oxford University Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Ison, Ray L. 2010. Systems practice: How to act in a climate change world. London: Springer.

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • Kane, Lisa. 2014. Mitigation as applied science. In Provocateur briefings: Forum on development and mitigation, ed. Emily Tyler. Cape Town: MAPS Programme.

    Google Scholar 

  • Leyshon, Catherine. 2014. Critical issues in social science climate change research. Contemporary Social Science 9 (4): 359–373.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mangondo, Lena. 2016. The South African renewable energy independent power producers procurement programme—Lessons learned. Centurion: IPP Office.

    Google Scholar 

  • Marquard, Andrew and C. Godino. 2013. ERC LTMS review meeting notes, unpublished report. Cape Town: Energy Research Centre.

    Google Scholar 

  • Morris, Mike and Lucy Martin. 2015. Political economy of climate-relevant change policies: The Case of Renewable Energy in South Africa. Cape Town: Institute of Development Studies, University of Cape Town.

    Google Scholar 

  • Raubenheimer, Stefan. 2011. Facing climate change: Building South Africa’s strategy. Cape Town: Unity Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Republic of South Africa. 2011. National climate change response white paper. Pretoria: Republic of South Africa.

    Google Scholar 

  • Scenario Building Team. 2007. Long Term Mitigation Scenarios: Technical Summary, Department of Environment Affairs and Tourism, Pretoria, October 2007.

  • Shine, Kasey Treadwell. 2015. Policymaking as complex cartography? Mapping and achieving probable futures using complex concepts and tools. In Handbook on complexity and public policy, 1st ed, ed. Robert Geyer, and Paul Cairney. Cheltenham: Edward Elgar.

    Google Scholar 

  • Shove, Elizabeth. 2010. Beyond the ABC: climate change policy and theories of social change. Environment and Planning 42: 1273–1285.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Trollip, Hilton, Marta Torres Gunfaus and Michelle Du Toit. 2015. Implementing climate change mitigation: A journey into the unknown. Cape Town: MAPS Programme.

    Google Scholar 

  • Tyler, Emily. 2010. Aligning South African energy and climate change mitigation policy. Climate Policy 10 (5): 575–588.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tyler, Emily. 2015. Reflecting on climate mitigation policy in a development context: How do we do what we do?. Cape Town: MAPS Programme.

    Google Scholar 

  • Tyler, Emily, Anya Boyd, Kim Coetzee and Harald Winkler. 2013. A case study of South African mitigation actions (For the special issue on mitigation actions in five developing countries). Climate and Development 6 (sup1): 49–58.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tyler, Emily and Brett Cohen. 2017. A complexity underpinning for domestic climate mitigation policy in South Africa. International Journal of Design & Nature Ecodynamics 12 (1): 124–132.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tyler, Emily and Marta Torres Gunfaus. 2015. LTMS review. Cape Town: MAPS Programme.

    Google Scholar 

  • United Nations Environment Programme. 2016. The emissions gap report. Nairobi: United Nations Environment Programme.

    Google Scholar 

  • van Schalkwyk, Marthinus. 2008. Cabinet climate change policy direction media release. Pretoria.

  • Wang, X., E. La Rovere, M. Yang and C. Fedorsky. 2008. South African long-term mitigation scenarios (LTMS), international peer review report. Washington: World Bank.

    Google Scholar 

  • Wills, A. 2010. South African Copenhagen accord pledge. Pretoria: Department of Environmental Affairs.

    Google Scholar 

  • Winkler, Harald. 2010. Taking action on climate change Long Term Mitigation Scenarios for South Africa’. Cape Town: UCT Press.

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Emily Tyler.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Tyler, E., Torres Gunfaus, M. Reflecting on the South African Long-Term Mitigation Scenario Process a Decade Later. Development 59, 328–334 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1057/s41301-017-0107-8

Download citation

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1057/s41301-017-0107-8

Keywords

Navigation