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What Is the Evidence That There Is No Evidence? The Link Between Conflict, Displacement and HIV Infections

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Abstract

The relationship between conflict, sexual violence and the spread of HIV is an important concern for international policy makers. One of the controversial issues is how to assess this relationship for policy purposes, given the unsettled and unpredictable nature of conflict contexts, and also given that HIV/AIDS is still a stigmatized disease. The nature of what constitutes policy-relevant knowledge is furthermore also highly controversial. This article aims to consider the kinds of knowledge that can be evidential for policy making within the context of the debate on conflict and HIV/AIDS. In particular, it focuses on the way particular data and methods are seen as more relevant for evidence-based policy in this context, critically evaluating and considering the influence of the recent high-profile Lancet article ‘Prevalence of HIV infection in conflict-affected and displaced people in seven sub-Saharan African countries: a systemic review’.

Le lien entre conflit, violence sexuelle et propagation du VIH représente une préoccupation importante pour l’élaboration de politiques internationales. Une question controversée concerne la manière d’évaluer la nature de ce lien, compte tenu des contextes de conflits souvent non résolus et imprévisibles, et du fait que le Sida reste une maladie stigmatisée. La notion de ce qui constitue des connaissances pertinentes à l’élaboration des politiques est aussi l’objet de controverses. Cet article a pour but d’apporter des éléments de réponses à ces questions en considérant le type de connaissances qui peuvent avoir une valeur probante pour l’élaboration de politiques concernant la relation entre les conflits et le VIH/Sida. Nous examinons en particulier comment certaines méthodes et données sont considérées plus pertinentes que d’autres pour l’élaboration de politiques fondées sur des informations factuelles, proposant une évaluation critique d’un article très influent récemment publié dans la revue médicale Lancet, «Prevalence of HIV infection in conflict-affected and displaced people in seven sub-Saharan African countries : A systemic review» («La Prévalence du VIH parmi les populations touchées par les conflits dans sept pays de l′Afrique subsaharienne : Une revue systématique»).

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Notes

  1. The Lancet also has a history of publishing controversial articles, such as the Wakefield paper linking the measles, mumps, and rubella (MMR) vaccine and autism, which was recently retracted by the journal (see Dyer, 2010).

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Acknowledgements

Thanks are due to the LSE Evidence Group in the Centre for Philosophy of Natural and Social Science (CPNSS) where earlier ideas around evidence-based policy were discussed. I thank both the organizers, Christian Lund and Lisa Ann Richey, and all participants at the Anthro-Politics workshop in Roskilde University, where an earlier version of this article was presented, for their comments. I am grateful to David Lewis for comments on an earlier version of the work and to Damien Fennell for many discussions we had on causal models and for his comments on various versions of the document.

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  1. LSE – Social Policy, London

    Hakan Seckinelgin

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Seckinelgin, H. What Is the Evidence That There Is No Evidence? The Link Between Conflict, Displacement and HIV Infections. Eur J Dev Res 22, 363–381 (2010). https://doi.org/10.1057/ejdr.2010.20

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