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The Climate Downturn of 536–50

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The Palgrave Handbook of Climate History

Abstract

This chapter surveys the evolution of research on the 536–50 CE climatic downturn and its human impacts. It presents the written evidence for atmospheric anomalies over the Mediterranean alongside the ever-growing wealth of relevant ice core and tree ring scholarship, and it highlights changes in reconstruction and interpretation as scholars reworked old evidence and injected new data. Judgments about the downturn’s historical significance in multiple world regions are discussed but not assessed in depth. In line with current evidence, the chapter concludes that the anomaly was a discontinuous complex of phenomena whose effects were extreme but varied across space and time. A cluster of very large volcanic eruptions triggered exceptional cooling and possibly drought across several parts of the globe. This was not a “536 event” or a “mystery cloud” of 12 or 18 months’ duration. It was a decade and a half of marked cold, with troughs in summer temperatures around 536, 540–1, and 545–6.

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Notes

  1. 1.

    A handful of antiquarians and Byzantinists drew attention to accounts of a c. 536 Mediterranean mystery clouding before the 1980s (Stathakopoulos, 2003, 247–49), but none envisioned this atmospheric phenomenon was part of a European, Eurasian, hemispheric, or global climatic event before NASA scientists Stothers and Rampino: Stothers and Rampino, 1983a, 412, 1983b, 6357, 6362–63, 6367, 6369; Stothers, 1984; Rampino, 1988, 87–88. Early Byzantinist scholarship notably includes Koder, 1996, and Farquharson, 1996, 266–68, 76–77.

  2. 2.

    Masson-Delmotte et al., 2014; Steig et al., 2013, 373; PAGES 2K Consortium, 2013, Tab. 1, Fig. 2; Jones et al., 2009, 6, 7. Although there remain many large gaps in our knowledge, limited evidence indicates temperature was not unusual in the mid-sixth century near the South Pole. Recent simulations of the climate forcing of downturn volcanism also suggest that the Southern Hemisphere was relatively unaffected: Toohey et al., 2016, 406. It is notable that Tambora too appears not to have much disturbed extratropical climates south of the equator: Raible et al., 2016, 569, 572, 582. The climate forcing of that 1815 eruption was slightly less than that of the c. 540 event: Sigl et al., 2015, 547–48, Extended Data Tab. 4. Yet, as Raible et al., 2016, remark (576), a dearth of climate records in the Southern Hemisphere may account for Tambora’s poor showing in the south. Of course, there are even fewer records for the sixth century.

  3. 3.

    Sigl et al., 2015, 547–48, Figs. 2 and 3, Extended Data Tabs. 4 and 5.

  4. 4.

    Büntgen et al., 2016. This LALIA falls within a longer period of less extreme cooling (known by many names, including Vandal Minimum, Late Roman Cold Period, Migration Period Pessimum, and Early Medieval Cold Anomaly) that commenced, depending on the proxy employed, in the fourth or fifth century and petered out in the seventh or eighth century. For example, Büntgen et al., 2011, 581; McCormick et al., 2012, 191–99.

  5. 5.

    Luterbacher et al., 2016, Fig. 1.

  6. 6.

    Toohey et al., 2016, 401, 405, 406, 410, Fig. 2.

  7. 7.

    Some historians have over-generalized the fragility of paleoclimate dating: try Moorhead, 2001, 143. The dendroclimatological data has proven robust. The ice core data is trickier. Yet the former cannot be problematized on account of the challenges the latter can present.

  8. 8.

    Bondesson and Bondesson, 2014, 63, for instance, claimed the cause of the downturn, which they consider both vast and severe, “remains unclear,” and they seem to suggest the event was restricted to the mid-530s, even though its volcanic origin was reconfirmed in 2008 (and only since reinforced) and its decadal duration was made evident no later than 1994.

  9. 9.

    The notable exception is Arjava, 2005, 73–94. Many in the humanities continue to read the paleoscience through Arjava’s paper, though much has changed since 2005. See Power, 2012, 190; Lee, 2013, 290.

  10. 10.

    Keys, 2000; Wickham, 2005, 549.

  11. 11.

    McCormick writes of a “tremendous volcanic winter” in 536 with widespread atmospheric effects that “must have had serious economic and human consequences” but which only “weakened and did not destroy” the Roman Empire revived under Justinian: McCormick, 2013, 72, 88.

  12. 12.

    Cassiodorus’ first appearance: Rampino, 1988, 87.

  13. 13.

    Cameron, 1985, 14.

  14. 14.

    Procopius, 1916, IV.14, 328–29.

  15. 15.

    Cassiodorus, Variae 12.25, 518–20.

  16. 16.

    Lydian, 1897, 25. On the misdating: Arjava, 2005, 80.

  17. 17.

    Pseudo-Dionysius of Tel-Mahre, Chronicle, 65.

  18. 18.

    Michael the Syrian, 1901, 220–21.

  19. 19.

    Pseudo-Zachariah Rhetor, Chronicle 9.19, 370.

  20. 20.

    Pseudo-Zachariah Rhetor, Chronicle, 370 n. 305.

  21. 21.

    Arjava, 2005, 79.

  22. 22.

    Pseudo-Zachariah Rhetor, Chronicle 10.1, 399.

  23. 23.

    Marcellinus Comes, Chronicle, 39.

  24. 24.

    Arjava, 2005, 80–83; Stothers and Rampino, 1983b, 6362.

  25. 25.

    Notably: Stothers, 1984, 344–45; Rampino, 1988, 87: “the densest and most persistent dry fog in recorded history was observed during AD 536–537.”

  26. 26.

    Lydian, 1897, 25; Arjava, 2005, 80.

  27. 27.

    By which John may have meant Ethiopia or southern Arabia. Sixth-century Byzantines sometimes confused the two: Sarris, 2002, 171; Schneider, 2015, 184–202.

  28. 28.

    It was suggested John borrowed his explanation from Campestris who lived centuries earlier. Arjava thinks this dubious: Arjava, 2005, 81.

  29. 29.

    Keys, 2000, 253; Abbott et al., 2014b, 413.

  30. 30.

    Weisburd, 1985, 91–94; Houston, 2000, 71, 73, 77. Whether there is textual evidence for exceptional cold and drought in West Asia and Europe in the 540s remains to be determined. Previous searches have centered on 536.

  31. 31.

    Aston, 1896, 34–35.

  32. 32.

    Shultz, 2012, 122–24. There appears to be nothing potentially related to the downturn in Paekche Annals of the Samguk Sagi.

  33. 33.

    Koguryo Annals of the Samguk Sagi, 168–69. There appears to be nothing potentially related to the downturn in the Paekche Annals of the Samguk Sagi.

  34. 34.

    LaMarche and Hirschboeck, 1984, 121–26 (cf. Parker, 1985); Briffa, 2000, 87–105; Gao et al., 2008; Cole-Dai, 2010, 824–39.

  35. 35.

    Churakova et al., 2014, 145–49.

  36. 36.

    Esper et al., 2013, 2, 2015.

  37. 37.

    On these issues: Esper et al., 2015, 62–70; García-Suárez et al., 2009, 183–98.

  38. 38.

    535 registered as the second coldest June–January in an early TRW study of a Sierra Nevadan pine chronology spanning 1–1980 ce (536 placed first), TRW and cell wall thickness analysis also drew attention to a 532 cold plunge in the aforementioned Altai series, and TRW analysis of the associated Sakha series revealed a pre-downturn 533 low. These Russian lows may be connected to local volcanism and suggest that the downturn had an early start in Siberia.

  39. 39.

    Cook et al., 2015.

  40. 40.

    Büntgen et al., 2011.

  41. 41.

    For instance: Esper et al., 2013, 736, Fig. 3.

  42. 42.

    Cook et al., 2006, 689–99; Larsen et al., 2008.

  43. 43.

    Pearson et al., 2012.

  44. 44.

    Major low-latitude eruptions, like the c. 540 event, are known to reduce global mean precipitation: Iles et al., 2013. Fischer et al., 2007, finds drier conditions in Central and Eastern Europe after more recent large (tropical) eruptions. Also Luterbacher and Pfister, 2015.

  45. 45.

    Pearson et al., 2012, 3405, 3411–12. Vesuvius’ 472 eruption also does not register in this series. Narrow rings are apparent, however, at the 475 mark (see below), perhaps indicating a post-472 eruption dry spell.

  46. 46.

    Esper et al., 2013, 736, Fig. 3.

  47. 47.

    See Fig. 2.6 and references there cited in Luterbacher et al., 2012, 103.

  48. 48.

    Tan et al., 2003, 1617; Zhang et al., 2008, 940, 941 (Fig. 1).

  49. 49.

    Holzhauser et al., 2005; Thompson et al., 1985, 973, 1994, 85, 87, 92. The second study indicates dryness recommencing c. 570, following a decade-long hiatus, and continuing until 610. Chu et al., 2011, 789–90; Van Bellen et al., 2015, 1, 9. The Patagonian dry period, which seems to predate but span the downturn, is visible as well in another southern South American proxy too: Moreno et al., 2014.

  50. 50.

    Kobashi et al., 2011.

  51. 51.

    See note 2 above.

  52. 52.

    Sixth-century sections of long high-resolution Central American proxies are wanting. The region is held to suffer heightened aridity following large eruptions—see Gill and Keating, 2002, 125–33.

  53. 53.

    Hodell et al., 1995, 393 (Fig. 3); Curtis et al., 1996, 41, 44–46; Hodell et al., 2001, 1368 (Fig. 2), 2005, 1421, 1424 (Figs. 10, 15). These studies focus on the more severe and prolonged droughts corresponding to the classical “collapse,” not the hiatus, though the latter is visible in them. The very existence of severe and prolonged classical-era droughts, however, has been questioned. The Chichancanab data has been reassessed and it has been argued that the arid cycles identified in the aforementioned 2001 and 2005 papers are “methodological artifacts”: Carleton et al., 2014, 151–61. Dry conditions evident in the Chichancanab data, though, appear in other independent proxies from the region: Wahl et al., 2014, 23.

  54. 54.

    Medina-Elizalde et al., 2010, 260 (Fig. 7).

  55. 55.

    Webster et al., 2007, 1, 12, 13–14.

  56. 56.

    Rosenmeier et al., 2002, 183, 185, 188–89.

  57. 57.

    Haug et al., 2003, 1733 (Fig. 2).

  58. 58.

    Lane et al., 2014, 93, 95.

  59. 59.

    Gao et al., 2008; Cole-Dai, 2010, 824–39.

  60. 60.

    Hammer et al., 1980, 235.

  61. 61.

    Herron, 1982.

  62. 62.

    Hammer, 1984, 51–65; Clausen et al., 1997, 26,707–23.

  63. 63.

    Zielinski, 1995, 20,939, 20,944; Clausen et al., 1997, 26,707–23.

  64. 64.

    For instance: Cole-Dai et al., 2000, 24,435, 24,438–39; Kurbatov et al., 2006. On the missing GISP2 section, Zielinski, 1995, 20,940, 20,949, 20,953.

  65. 65.

    Traufetter et al., 2004, 141; Severi et al., 2007, 367–74; Larsen et al., 2008.

  66. 66.

    Baillie, 2008. Recently supported by Sigl et al., 2015, 543.

  67. 67.

    Ferris et al., 2011; Plummer et al., 2012, 1931, 1933–36.

  68. 68.

    Sigl et al., 2013, 1159.

  69. 69.

    Motizuki et al., 2014, 785, 798.

  70. 70.

    Sigl et al., 2014, 693, 694, 695.

  71. 71.

    Sigl et al., 2015, 544, 545, 547–48; also Büntgen et al., 2016.

  72. 72.

    Aizen et al., 2016, Fig. 5a.

  73. 73.

    Stothers and Rampino, 1983b, 6357, 6362–63, 6369; Stothers, 1984, 344–45.

  74. 74.

    Simarski, 1992, 3–5; Kelly and Sear, 1984, 740–43; Bradley, 1988, 221–43; Schmincke, 2004, 259–72.

  75. 75.

    Luterbacher and Pfister, 2015, 246.

  76. 76.

    Hammer et al., 1980, 233, 235. This ‘White River Ash’ eruption was redated recently to 833–50/847 ± 1: Jensen et al., 2014, 875–78.

  77. 77.

    Stothers and Rampino, 1983a, 412, 1983b, 6362; Rampino, 1988, 88. Cf. Heming, 1974, 1259.

  78. 78.

    Stothers, 1999, 717.

  79. 79.

    Traufetter et al., 2004, 141, 145; McKee et al., 2011, 27–37, 2015, 1–7. Stother’s 540 ± 90 date was shown as well to be a mistake.

  80. 80.

    Keys, 2000, 277–78, 86–91.

  81. 81.

    Sigl et al., 2014, 695, 2015, 547–48. The second eruption had been earlier put in the tropics: Ferris et al., 2011 (who dated it to c. 535) proposed a “low latitudes” site and Larsen et al., 2008 (who dated it to 533/4 ± 2) were confident the eruption took place near the equator. Larsen et al., 2008, assigned the first event (with a 529 ± 2 date) a “more northerly source.”

  82. 82.

    Sigl et al., 2013, 2015.

  83. 83.

    Both seem to register only in Greenlandic ice: Sigl et al., 2015, 547 (Fig. 5).

  84. 84.

    Andrea Burke, personal correspondence, June 20, 2016.

  85. 85.

    Tilling et al., 1984, 747–49; Espíndola et al., 2000, 90, 93, 102.

  86. 86.

    Nooren et al., 2009, 97, 101, 106–07. It is not specified why the dendroclimatological data for widespread cooling c. 536 was overlooked. Recently, Nooren et al., 2017 has again assigned the eruption to El Chichón.

  87. 87.

    Dull et al., 2010. Dull had previously dated the eruption to 410–535 and, more precisely, c. 430, Dull et al., 2001, 25, 27; Dull, 2004, 238, 243. A wide mid-fourth- to mid-sixth-century window is advanced independently in Mehringer et al., 2005, 199, 203–04, and Kitamura, 2010, 28.

  88. 88.

    Sigl et al., 2015, Extended Data Tab. 4 puts the Ilopango event at 540.

  89. 89.

    Toohey et al., 2016, 410.

  90. 90.

    Suggested by Larsen et al., 2008, but assigned to 529 ± 2 before being bumped by Baillie to c. 535.

  91. 91.

    Suzuki and Nakada, 2007, 1545, 1565; Soda, 1996, 40.

  92. 92.

    Sigl et al., 2015, 547; Gill Plunkett personal communication June 20 and 22, 2016.

  93. 93.

    Toohey et al., 2016, 406.

  94. 94.

    Gregory of Tours, Marius of Avenches, John of Biclaro, Victor of Tunnuna, and Isidore of Seville mention nothing plausibly related to Mediterranean sun dimming 536–7.

  95. 95.

    Pearson et al., 2012, 3402–14. One might also question why Cassiodorus had to inform his deputy about the dust veil (see above). If it were a major event, would he not have known? See also Grattan and Pyatt, 1999, 173–74, 77–78; Arjava, 2005, 73–94. Not long before the important study of Larsen et al., 2008, which established evidence for a volcanic origin of 536 clouding at both poles, Larsen advised Arjava (p. 77 n. 24) “nothing of interest” was found in Greenlandic ice layers between 531 and 550.

  96. 96.

    Arjava, 2005, 81–83.

  97. 97.

    Rampino, 1988, 87–88.

  98. 98.

    The modeling employed written accounts of clouding duration to help constrain the height of the eruption column. However, ice core data was used to establish the eruption’s latitude, which is the important factor for understanding the latitudinal spread of volcanic aerosols. Matt Toohey, personal correspondence, November 1 and 2, 2016.

  99. 99.

    For instance: cf. Tabs. 1 and 7 in Principe et al., 2004, 705, 716–17, 719.

  100. 100.

    Oppenheimer and Pyle, 2009, 444; Mrgić, 2004, 238. Others, notably Rosi and Santacroce, 1983, 250, consider the most mortal Vesuvius eruption that of 472.

  101. 101.

    Rosi and Santacroce, 1983, 250–51, 253–55; Pearson et al., 2012, 3406 (Fig. 4). On 472: Kostick and Ludlow, 2015, 8–13.

  102. 102.

    Marcellinus Comes, Chronicle, 25; John Malalas, Chronicle, 14.42, 205–06; Chronicle Paschale, 90–91. For discussion, Stothers and Rampino, 1983b, 6361–62; Kostick and Ludlow, 2015, 8–13. These scientists also link Hydatius’ account (35) of poor weather in northern Portugal to this event (Chronicon, ed. T. Mommsen MGH AA XI p. 35), though Hydatius’ text stops in 469 and this passage should be fixed a late 460s date.

  103. 103.

    Procopius, 1919, VI.4, 324–27.

  104. 104.

    Cassiodorus, 1886, 261–62. Discussion: Macfarlane, 2009, 109–11; Cioni et al., 2011, 789–810.

  105. 105.

    See Principe et al., 2004, 705–07, 710 who attribute a 14C dated tephra layer to 450 ± 50 to 536 (not 472 or 512) and speak of “an explosive eruption” that “must have occurred” considering evidence for Mediterranean clouding. Stothers and Rampino note 536 was “probably not” Mediterranean in origin, but Vesuvius may have erupted after Procopius left Campania: 1983b, 6362, 6367.

  106. 106.

    Arrighi et al., 2004.

  107. 107.

    http://climatechange.umaine.edu/colle_gnifetti_2013_.

  108. 108.

    Clube and Napier, 1991, 49; Baillie, 1994, 216, 1999; Rigby et al., 2004, 123–26. Further discussion of the impact of extraterrestrial impactors: Napier, 2014, 391–92.

  109. 109.

    For instance: Stothers, 2002, 4; D’Arrigo et al., 2003, 257.

  110. 110.

    Baillie, 2008.

  111. 111.

    Rigby et al., 2004, 123–26.

  112. 112.

    Abbott et al., 2008.

  113. 113.

    Abbott et al., 2014a, 2014b.

  114. 114.

    Kostick and Ludlow, 2015, 15.

  115. 115.

    Baillie, 1994, 216; Arjava, 2005, 79, 80, 93.

  116. 116.

    See note 92 above.

  117. 117.

    Moorhead, 2001, 147–48, concentrates on Mediterranean mystery clouding, misdates Cassiodorus’ letter to 533, ignores other accounts of sun veiling, and emphasizes the “remarkable ability” of human societies to “bounce back from disasters, including widespread failures of crops.”

  118. 118.

    Tvauri, 2014, 35, is well versed in the paleoclimology of the downturn (30–32) and suggests “primitive” agrarian technology then in Baltic countries made contemporaries especially vulnerable to famines far worse than those of the historical period. He proposes that a “single incident of famine” could erode centuries of population growth.

  119. 119.

    Parry and Carter, 1985.

  120. 120.

    Fischer et al., 2007.

  121. 121.

    The food shortage spectrum: Garnsey, 1988, x, 6, 20–37, 271.

  122. 122.

    McCormick, 2007b, 878–89; cf. Newfield, 2013, 125–48. Later examples: Atwell, 2001, 32, 42–62.

  123. 123.

    The 1257–8 eruption, recently assigned to Samalas, Indonesia, and long known as the largest of the Common Era, did not generate widespread famine. Unlike downturn events, however, dendroclimatology indicates this event did not much affect climate. Stothers, 2000, 361–74; Timmreck et al., 2009; Mann et al., 2012, 202–05; Anchukaitis et al., 2012, 836–37; Esper et al., 2013, 736.

  124. 124.

    For discussion: Stathakopoulos, 2004, 265.

  125. 125.

    Cassiodorus, 1886, 519–20; 12.22 (513–14); 12.27 (521); 12.28 (523–24); 12.26 (520–21).

  126. 126.

    John the Lydian, 1897, 25; Pseudo-Dionysius of Tel-Mahre, Chronicle, 65; Michael the Syrian, Chronique, 220–21.

  127. 127.

    Pseudo-Zachariah Rhetor, Chronicle, 10.1 (399).

  128. 128.

    Procopius documents several tactical siege shortages then: Stathakopoulos, 2004, 270–77.

  129. 129.

    Davis, 2000, 56. Note the reconquest reached Liguria in 538 and this episcopal report was delivered in person in Rome over the winter of 537–38 meaning the dire situation in Liguria is to be assigned to 537. Milan suffered a multi-month-long siege during the war, but in 538–39, also after this report.

  130. 130.

    Charles-Edwards, 2006, 94–95; Williams, 1965, 4. Note the CELT (Corpus of Electronic Texts) transcription of the Annals of Ulster dates the bread failure to 538: www.ucc.ie/celt/published/T100001A/index.html.

  131. 131.

    Weisburd, 1985, 93. Weisburd implies Chang State’s summer snow and autumnal famine occurred in 536 in the text, but the map caption (also p. 93) seems to date these events to 537.

  132. 132.

    Grove and Rackham, 2001, 143–44; Diaz and Trouet, 2014, 168.

  133. 133.

    Toohey et al., 2016, 401, 406, 408–09, 410, Fig. 2.

  134. 134.

    Ge et al., 2010, Figs. 2 and 3.

  135. 135.

    Axboe, 1999, 186–88, 2001, 119–35. Bondesson and Bondesson, 2012, 167–70, discuss a twenty-item deposit dating to the second quarter of the sixth century.

  136. 136.

    Discussed in Gräslund and Price, 2012, 433–34; also Price, 2015, 258–59. Continuity is seen at many settlements.

  137. 137.

    Löwenborg, 2012, 10–13.

  138. 138.

    Gräslund and Price, 2012, 431–36; Löwenborg, 2012, 5–7; Tvauri, 2014, 32–34, 35–39, and references therein. Detailed discussion of a sixth-century site where bread was found as a burial offering: Arrhenius, 2013, 1–14.

  139. 139.

    Löwenborg, 2012, 5, 8–10, 15–17, 19–23; Tvauri, 2014, 39–40, 42–43, 44–47, 48.

  140. 140.

    The Fimbulwinter was recorded first in the late Viking period and long thought by modern scholars to be rooted in the climatic transition away from a warm Scandinavia Bronze Age about 600–450 bce: Pettersson, 1914, 24. More recently it was assigned to the downturn: Axboe, 1999, 187; Gräslund and Price, 2012, 436–40.

  141. 141.

    Gill, 2000, 228–33, 245, 287, 313, 318.

  142. 142.

    Toohey et al., 2016, 401, 406, 408–09, 410, Fig. 2.

  143. 143.

    For example: Koder, 1996, 277; Farquharson, 1996, 266; Houston, 2000, 73, 74; Gräslund and Price, 2012, 433, 438; Löwenborg, 2012, 7, 17–18, 22; Tvauri, 2014, 32, 35, 36, 46, 48.

  144. 144.

    Bondesson and Bondesson, 2014, 61–67.

  145. 145.

    Palynology indicates a sixth- or seventh-century date for the wide sowing of rye in Estonia: Tvauri, 2014, 30, 47–48, 49.

  146. 146.

    Justinianic Plague: Stathakopoulos, 2004, 110–54; Horden, 2005, 134–60; Little, 2007.

  147. 147.

    Cheyette, 2008, 155–56; Gräslund and Price, 2012, 434; Löwenborg, 2012, 7, 17, 19, 24; Tvauri, 2014, 35; Headrick, 2012, 39–40; Kostick and Ludlow, 2015, 16. Long ago, Farquharson emphasized that the downturn was part of “an extraordinary clustering of events,” which included pandemic and epizootic disease: 1996, 267.

  148. 148.

    Maddicott, 1997, 10–11, 17.

  149. 149.

    Campbell has observed that the Black Death’s arrival in England forestalled a sequence of exceptionally poor harvests from creating famine: Campbell, 2010, 301–04; Campbell, 2012, 140, 144–47, 159.

  150. 150.

    Stathakopoulos, 2003, 254 observes that Seibel lumped this Justinianic Plague and mystery clouding together as though they were causally associated in his 1857 work. Recent linkages include: Brown, 2001, 92–94; Stathakopoulos, 2003, 253–54, 2007, 100; McCormick, 2003, 20–21, n.33; Horden, 2005, 152–53; Sallares, 2007, 284–85; McCormick et al., 2012, 198–99; Gräslund and Price, 2012, 433–34; Lee, 2013, 290; Sigl et al., 2015, 548; Haldon et al., 2014, 123; Izdebski et al., 2015.

  151. 151.

    Though low-resolution paleoclimatology now illuminates a pronounced humid period setting in about 550 in Central Africa: Oslisly et al., 2013. In Western and Northern Africa, there is evidence for dry conditions. Low-resolution hydroclimate proxies in Chad and Algeria identify the sixth century as fitting into a two- or three-century dry period. In some proxies from Ghana and Senegal, this dryness is part of much longer-term aridity. In others, from Nigeria and Cameroon, dry conditions appear to set in abruptly in the sixth century. Reconstructions from Eastern Africa are more variable. The sixth century is the last of a long humid period in parts of Kenya. But proxies from other areas, like Tanzania, indicate dry conditions setting in abruptly in the mid-sixth century. Conversely, wetness sets in suddenly in Rwanda, Namibia, and northeast South Africa in the mid-sixth century: Nash et al., 2016, 6–8.

  152. 152.

    Keys, 2000, 16–23.

  153. 153.

    For example: Sallares, 2007, 284–85; Stathakopoulos, 2007, 100; also Lee, 2013, 290. Horden expressed skepticism, Brown thought the temperature sensitivity of plague-bearing rodent fleas problematic to Key’s theory, and McCormick suggested that the connection was more complex than Keys allowed, though he too thought that the two events connected via the effect of climate change on rodent populations: Horden, 2005, 152–53; Brown, 2001, 92–94; M. McCormick, 2003, 20–21, n.33.

  154. 154.

    Biraben and Le Goff, 1975, 50, 58, 64; Sarris, 2002, 169, 170–72; Sallares, 2007, 251, 285–86 thought the plague popped up closer to home, possibly in Egypt.

  155. 155.

    Morelli et al., 2010, 1140–3; Harbeck et al., 2013; Wagner et al., 2014, 323; Feldman et al., 2016.

  156. 156.

    Stathakopoulos, 2003, 254.

  157. 157.

    McCormick, 2003, n.33; McCormick, 2007a, 303–04.

  158. 158.

    McCormick et al., 2012, 198–99.

  159. 159.

    It is not limited to cold climates or seasons, but pneumonic plague does generally require close contact for transmission. Sallares, 2007, 241–42, 286.

  160. 160.

    Unless the disease became endemic or enzootic following the initial introduction. Justinianic recurrences: Biraben and Le Goff, 1975, 58–60; Stathakopoulos, 2004, 113–24; Horden, 2005, 138–39, n.6.

  161. 161.

    Schmid et al., 2015, 3020–25; Kausrud et al., 2010, 112; Ben-Ari et al., 2011. Campbell has demonstrated the Black Death occurred, in Europe, within a distinct climatic anomaly: Campbell, 2010, 287, 300–05; Campbell, 2012, 144–47.

  162. 162.

    McMichael, 2015.

  163. 163.

    Though see Kausrud et al., 2010.

  164. 164.

    Bos et al., 2016; Seifert et al., 2016.

  165. 165.

    The same would apply to other mosquito-borne diseases. In Europe, both vivax and malariae varieties of malaria were well established south and north of the Alps by 550. Gowland and Western, 2012; Newfield, 2017.

  166. 166.

    See note 5 above.

  167. 167.

    For example: Stathakopoulos, 2004, 166–67, 268; Cheyette, 2008, 155–56; Devroey and Jaubert, 2011, 10; Izdebski et al., 2015.

  168. 168.

    Farquharson, 1996, 267.

  169. 169.

    Arrhenius, 2013, 13.

  170. 170.

    Widgren, 2012, 126, 131–33; Nunn, 2007, 9. In Satingpra, Thailand, a downturn drought is seen as spurring major irrigation works: Stargardt, 2014, 129–30.

  171. 171.

    Houston, 2000, 71, 74.

  172. 172.

    Dahlin and Chase, 2014, 127–55.

  173. 173.

    Lucero, 1999, 814–22.

  174. 174.

    Dunning et al., 2012, 3652–57.

  175. 175.

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  176. 176.

    A survey of late antique Mediterranean famines: Stathakopoulos, 2004, 23–30, 35–56.

  177. 177.

    Smit and Wandel, 2006, 282–92; Berkes, 1993, 1–10.

  178. 178.

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  1. Departments of History and Biology, Georgetown University, Washington, DC, USA

    Timothy P. Newfield

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  1. Ohio State University, Columbus, OH, USA

    Sam White

  2. Institute of History, Oeschger Centre for Climate Change, Bern, Switzerland

    Christian Pfister

  3. Institute for Advanced Sustainability Studies, University of Potsdam, Potsdam, Germany

    Franz Mauelshagen

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Newfield, T.P. (2018). The Climate Downturn of 536–50. In: White, S., Pfister, C., Mauelshagen, F. (eds) The Palgrave Handbook of Climate History. Palgrave Macmillan, London. https://doi.org/10.1057/978-1-137-43020-5_32

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