Abstract
Earlywood width chronologies from Douglas-fir tree rings were used to reconstruct winter (November–March) precipitation for more than 600 years over Durango, Mexico. The tree-ring data were obtained from two sites of long-lived Douglas-fir in northern and southern Durango and the seasonal climatic precipitation data were regionally averaged from five weather stations well distributed across the state. The averaged earlywood chronology accounted for 56% of the variance in instrumental November–March precipitation 1942–1983. We validated the reconstruction against independent precipitation records. The worst winter drought of the 20th century in Durango occurred 1950–1965. However, the reconstruction indicates droughts more severe than any witnessed in the 20th century, e.g., the 1850s–1860s, and the megadrought in the mid- to late-16th century. Reconstructed winter precipitation 1540–1579 shows 33 of 40 years were dry. Persistent drought may be linked to extended La Niña episodes. The Tropical Rainfall Index (TRI) correlates well with instrumental and reconstructed winter precipitation (r = 0.49 and 0.55, respectively), reflecting the strong ENSO modulation of cool season climate over northern Mexico. The ENSO teleconnection varies through time, with TRI-reconstructed precipitation correlations ranging from 0.78 to 0.27 in five periods 1895–1993. The 1942–1983 winter observed and reconstructed Durango data correlate well with the corresponding seasonalization of the All-Mexico Rainfall Index (AMRI; r=0.68, P<0.0001 and r=0.70, P<0.001, respectively), indicating that both the observed and the reconstructed precipitation often reflect broad-scale precipitation anomalies across Mexico. New long Douglas-fir and baldcypress tree-ring chronologies are now available for central and southern Mexico near major population centers, allowing the exploration of relationships between drought, food scarcity, and social and political upheaval in Mexican history.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Akaike, H.: 1974, 'A New Look at Statistical Model Identification', IEEE Transactions on Automatic Control AC-19, 716–723.
Allan, R. J., Lindesay, J., and Parker, D.: 1996, El Niño/Southern Oscillation & Climatic Variability, CSIRO Publishing, Canberra, A.C.T.
Bell, G. D., Halpert, M. S., Ropelewski, C. F., Kousky, V. E., Douglas, A. V., Schnell, R. C., and Gelman, M. E.: 1999, 'Climate Assessment for 1998', Bull. Amer. Meteorol. Soc. 80, S1–S48.
Box, G. E. P., Jenkins, G. M., and Reinsel, G. C.: 1994, Time Series Analysis, Forecasting and Control, 3rd edn., Prentice-Hall, Englewood Cliffs, New Jersey.
Castorena, G., Mora, E. S., Florescano, E., Rios, G. P., and Viqueira, L. R.: 1976, Analisis Historico de las Sequias en México, Comisión del Plan Nacional Hidraulico, D. F., Mexico.
Cayan, D. R., Dettinger, M. D., Diaz, H. F., and Graham, N. E.: 1998, 'Decadal Variability of Precipitation Over Western North America', J. Climate 11, 3148–3166.
Cleaveland, M. K.: 1986, 'Climatic Response of Densitometric Properties in Semiarid Site Tree Rings', Tree-Ring Bull. 46, 13–29.
Cleaveland, M. K.: 1988, 'Corrigendum to Climatic Response of Densitometric Properties in Semiarid Site Tree Rings', Tree-Ring Bull. 48, 41–47.
Cleaveland, M. K., Cook, E. R., and Stahle, D.W.: 1992, 'Secular Variability of the Southern Oscillation Detected in Tree-Ring Data from Mexico and the Southern United States', in Diaz, H. F. and Markgraf, V. (eds.), El Niño: Historical and Paleoclimatic Aspects of the Southern Oscillation, Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, pp. 271–291.
Cole, J. E., 1993a: 'The Spectrum of Recent Variability in the Southern Oscillation: Results from a Tarawa Atoll Coral', Science 260, 1790–1793.
Cole, J. E., 1993b: 'Tarawa Coral Stable Isotope and Mineralology Data', IGBP/PAGES/World Data Center-A for Paleoclimatology Data Contribution Series #1993-014. Nat. Oceanic Atmospheric Admin./Nat. Geophysical Data Center, Boulder, CO.
Cole, J. E. and Cook, E. R.: 1998, 'The Changing Relationship between ENSO Variability and Moisture Balance in the Continental United States', Geophys. Res. Lett. 25, 4529–4532.
Cole, J. E., Overpeck, J. T., and Cook, E. R.: 2002, 'Multiyear La Niña Events and Persistent Drought in the Contiguous United States', Geophys. Res. Lett. 29, No. 13, 10.1029/2001GL013561.
Conde, C., Liverman, D., Flores, M., Ferrer, R., AraÚjo, R., Betancourt, E., Villareal, G., and Gay, C.: 1997, 'Vulnerability of Rainfed Maize Crops in Mexico to Climate Change', Clim. Res. 9, 17–23.
Cook, E. R.: 1985, A Time Series Approach to Tree-Ring Standardization, Ph.D. dissertation, University of Arizona, Tucson.
Cook, E. R.: 1987, 'The Decomposition of Tree-Ring Series for Environmental Studies', Tree-Ring Bull. 47, 37–59.
Cook, E. R. and Peters, K.: 1981, 'The Smoothing Spline: A New Approach to Standardizing Forest Interior Tree-Ring Width Series for Dendroclimatic Studies', Tree-Ring Bull. 41, 45–53.
Dettinger, M. D., Cayan, D. R., Diaz, H. F., and Meko, D. M.: 1998, 'North-South Precipitation Patterns inWestern North America on Interannual-to-Decadal Timescales', J. Climate 11, 3095–3111.
Draper, N. R. and Smith, H.: 1981, Applied Regression Analysis, 2nd edn., Wiley, New York.
Drew, L. G.M.: 1975, Tree-Ring Chronologies ofWestern America: VI.Western Canada and Mexico, Chronology Series I, University of Arizona Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research, Tucson.
Enfield, D. B. and Cid, L.: 1991, 'Low-Frequency Changes in El Niño-Southern Oscillation', J. Climate 4, 1137–1146.
Englehart, P. J. and Douglas, A. V.: 2000, 'Dissecting the Macro-Scale Variations in Mexican Maize Yields (1961–1997)', Geographical and Environmental Modelling 4, 65–81.
Florescano, E., Swan, S., Menegus, M., and Galindo, I.: 1995, Breve Historia de la Sequia en Mexico, Universidad Veracruzana, Veracruz.
Fritts, H. C.: 1991, Reconstructing Large-Scale Climatic Patterns from Tree-Ring Data, University of Arizona Press, Tucson.
Fritts, H. C.: 2001, Tree Rings and Climate, Blackburn Press, Caldwell, New Jersey.
Fye, F. K., Stahle, D.W., and Cook, E. R.: 'Paleoclimatic Analogs to 20th Century Moisture Regimes Across the U.S.A.', Bull. Amer. Meteorol. Soc., in press.
Griffith, J. F. and Ainsworth, G.: 1981, One Hundred Years of Texas Weather 1880–1979, Office of the Texas State Climatologist, Texas A&M University, College Station.
Hermann, R. K. and Lavender, D. P.: 1990, 'Pseudotsuga menziesii (Mirb.) Franco, Douglas-Fir', in Burns, R. B. and Honkala, B. H. (tech. coordinators), Silvics of North America: 1. Conifers (Agriculture Handbook 654), U.S. Dept. of Agriculture Forest Service, Washington, D.C.
Higgins, R. W, Chen, Y., and Douglas, A. V.: 1999, 'Interannual Variability of the North American Warm Season Precipitation Regime', J. Climate 12, 653–680.
Hodell, D. A., Curtis, J. H., and Brenner, M.: 1995, 'Possible Role of Climate in the Collapse of Classic Maya Civilization', Nature 375, 391–394.
Holmes, R. L.: 1983, 'Computer-Assisted Quality Control in Tree-Ring Dating and Measurement', Tree-Ring Bull. 43, 69–78.
Jenkins, G. M. and Watts, D. G.: 1968, Spectral Analysis and its Applications, Holden-Day, San Francisco.
Kaplan, A., Cane, M., Kushmir, Y., Clement, A., Blumenthal, M., and Rajagoplan, B.: 1998, 'Analysis of Global Sea Surface Temperature 1856–1991', J. Geophys. Res. 103, 18567–18589.
LeRoy Ladurie, E.: 1971, Times of Feast, Times of Famine: A History of Climate Since the Year 1000, Doubleday, Garden City, New York.
Magaña, V. O. (ed.): 1999, Los Impactos de El Niño en México, Dirección General de Protección Civil, Secretaria de Gobernación, D. F., México.
Mantua, N. J., Hare, S. R., Zhang, Y., Wallace, J. M., and Francis, R. C.: 1997, 'A Pacific Interdecadal Climate Oscillation with Impacts on Salmon Production', Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. 78, 1069–1079.
Martinez, M.: 1963, Las Pináceas Mexicanas, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, University City, D.F.
Meko, D. M.: 1981, Applications of Box-Jenkins Methods of Time Series Analysis to the Reconstruction of Drought from Tree Rings, Ph.D. dissertation, University of Arizona, Tucson.
Minobe, S.: 1997, ';A 50–70-Year Climatic Oscillation over the North Pacific and North America', Geophys. Res. Lett. 24, 683–686.
Morales, L. E.: 1995, 'Análisis de Precios de los Productos Diezmados: El Bajío Oriental, 1665–1786', in Acosta, V. G. (coordinator), Los Precios de Alimentos y Manufacturas Novohispanicos, Centro de Investigaciones y Estudios Superiores en Antropología Social and Instituto de Investigaciones Dr. José Maria Luis Mora, D.F., Mexico. pp. 122–172.
Mosteller, F. and Tukey, J. W.: 1977, Data Analysis and Regression, Addison-Wesley, Reading, Massachusetts.
Nakamura, H., Lin, G., and Yamagata, T.: 1997, 'Decadal Climate Variability in the North Pacific During the Recent Decades', Bull. Amer. Meteorol. Soc. 78, 2215–2225.
Naylor, T. H. and Polzer, C. W.: 1986, The Presidio and Militia on the Northern Frontier of New Spain, University of Arizona Press, Tucson.
O'Hara, S. L. and Metcalfe, S. E.: 1995, 'Reconstructing the Climate of Mexico from Historical Records', The Holocene 5, 485–490.
Panshin, A. J. and de Zeeuw, C.: 1970, Textbook ofWood Technology, Vol. 1, 3rd. edn., McGraw-Hill, New York.
Pyke, C. B., 1972: Some Meteorological Aspects of the Seasonal Distribution of Precipitation in the Western United States and Baja California, Univ. of California Water Resources Center, Davis, CA.
Rasmusson, E. M., Wang, X., and Ropelewski, C. F.: 1990, 'The Biennial Component of ENSO Variability', J. Marine Systems 1, 71–96.
Ropelewski, C. F. and Halpert, M. S.: 1989, 'Precipitation Patterns Associated with the High Phase of the Southern Oscillation', J. Climate 1, 172–182.
Schneider, U. and Schönwiese, C. D.: 1989, 'Some Statistical Characteristics of El Niño/Southern Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation indices', Atmósfera 2, 167–180.
Shiyatov, S., Mazepa, V., and Cook, E.: 1990, 'Correcting for Trend in Variance Due to Changing Sample Size', in Cook, E. R. and Kairiukstis, L. A. (eds.), Methods of Dendrochronology, Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht, pp. 133–137.
Simpson, L. B.: 1966, Many Mexicos, 4th edn., University of California Press, Berkeley, revised.
Snee, R. D.: 1977, 'Validation of Regression Models: Methods and Examples', Technometrics 19, 415–428.
Stahle, D.W. and Cleaveland, M. K.: 1993, 'Southern Oscillation Extremes Reconstructed from Tree Rings of the Sierra Madre Occidental and Southern Great Plains', J. Climate 6, 129–140.
Stahle, D.W., Cook, E. R., Cleaveland, M. K., Therrell, M. D., Meko, D. M., Grissino-Mayer, H. D., Watson, E., and Luckman, B. H.: 2000a, 'Tree-Ring Data Document 16th Century Megadrought Over North America', Eos, Transactions Amer. Geophys. Union 81, 121, 125.
Stahle, D. W., D'Arrigo, R. D., Krusic, P. J., Cleaveland, M. K., Cook, E. R., Allan, R. J., Cole, J. E., Dunbar, R. B., Therrell, M. D., Gay, D. A., Moore, M. D., Stokes, M. A., Burns, B. T., Villanueva-Diaz, J., and Thompson, L. G.: 1998, 'Experimental Dendroclimatic Reconstruction of the Southern Oscillation', Bull. Amer. Meteorol. Soc. 79, 2137–2152.
Stahle, D. W., Villanueva-Diaz, J., Cleaveland, M. K., Therrell, M. D., Paull, G. J., Burns, B. T., Salinas, W., Suzan, H., and Fule, P. Z.: 2000b, 'Recent Tree-Ring Research in Mexico', in Roig, F. A. (compiler), Dendrocronología en América Latina: Dendrochronology in Latin America, Editorial de la Universidad Nacional de Cuyo, Mendoza, Argentina, pp. 285–305.
Steel, R. G. D. and Torrie, J. H.: 1980, Principles and Procedures of Statistics, 2nd edn., McGraw-Hill, New York.
Stokes, M. A. and Smiley, T. L.: 1996, An Introduction to Tree-Ring Dating, University of Arizona Press, Tucson.
Therrell, M. D., Stahle, D. W., and Cleaveland, M. K.: 2002, 'Warm Season Tree Growth and Precipitation over Mexico', J. Geophys. Res. 107 (D14), 10.1029/2001JD000851.
Urban, F. E., Cole, J. E., and Overpeck, J. T.: 2000a, 'Influence of Mean Climate Change on Climate Variability from a 155-Year Tropical Pacific Coral Record', Nature 407, 989–993.
Urban, F. E., Cole, J. E., and Overpeck, J. T.: 2000b, 'Maiana Coral Oxygen Isotope Data', IGBP/PAGES/World Data Center for Paleoclimatology Data Contribution Series #2000-063', Nat. Oceanic Atmospheric Admin./Nat. Geophysical Data Center, Boulder, CO.
Velasco, I.: 1999, 'Severe Droughts Becoming Recurrent, more Persistent in Mexico', Drought Network News 11 (1), 3–6.
Vose, R. S., Schmoyer, R. L., Steurer, P. M., Peterson, T. C., Heim, R., Karl, T. R., and Eischeid, J. K.: 1992, The Global Historical Climatology Network: Long-Term Monthly Temperature, Precipitation, Sea Level Pressure and Station Pressure Data, Environmental Sciences Div. Pub. No. 3912, Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN.
West, E.: 1995, The Way to the West: Essays on the Central Plains, University of New Mexico Press, Albuquerque.
Wright, P. B.: 1979, 'Persistence of Rainfall Anomalies in the Central Pacific', Nature 277, 371–374.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Cleaveland, M.K., Stahle, D.W., Therrell, M.D. et al. Tree-Ring Reconstructed Winter Precipitation and Tropical Teleconnections in Durango, Mexico. Climatic Change 59, 369–388 (2003). https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1024835630188
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1024835630188