Abstract
In this paper, four schemes involving the probability-matching technique were studied to obtain ensemble-based quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs) associated with Typhoon Lekima over East China. With the use of this technique, synthetic ensembles were created by blending low- and high-resolution rainfall forecasts. To effectively derive high-resolution ensemble forecasts, the neighborhood method was applied to mesoscale deterministic forecasts. Four schemes were explored based on the probability-matching technique. Two schemes resulted in ensemble forecasts, and the other two schemes yielded deterministic forecasts. By analyzing quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs) and ensemble forecasts, modified probability-matching-based schemes were determined to substantially reduce or eliminate the intrinsic model rainfall bias and to provide better QPF guidance. These encouraging results suggest that the modified probability-matching technique is a useful tool for QPFs of typhoon heavy rainfall over East China using dual-resolution ensemble forecasts.
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Acknowledgements
The authors would like to extend their sincere gratitude to China Meteorological Administration providing the relevant data.
Funding
This study was supported by Anhui Provincial Natural Science Foundation (2008085QD190), Special Project for Forecasters of China Meteorological Administration (CMAYBY2019-050), Innovation and Development Project of China Meteorological Administration (CXFZ2022J067), Hefei Key Technology Project (J2020J07), Key Research and Development Plan of Anhui Province (206038346013) and Anhui Meteorological Bureau Innovation Team.
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Conceptualization, C.L. and X.Q.; methodology, C.L. and H.D.; software, C.L.; validation, H.D. and X.Q.; formal analysis, C.L.; investigation, L.Z., Y.L., and Y.Z.; resources, H.D.; data curation, H.D.; writing—original draft preparation, C.L.; writing—review and editing, H.D. and X.Q.; visualization, C.L.; supervision, L.Z.; project administration, X.Q.; funding acquisition, C.L. and H.D. All authors have read and agreed to the published version of the manuscript.
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Liu, C., Deng, H., Qiu, X. et al. Improving precipitation ensemble forecasts of typhoon heavy rainfall over East China with a modified probability-matching technique. Bull. of Atmos. Sci.& Technol. 3, 4 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s42865-022-00048-x
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s42865-022-00048-x