Skip to main content

Advertisement

SpringerLink
Log in

Impacts of climate change on stream flow and water availability in Anger sub-basin, Nile Basin of Ethiopia

  • Original Article
  • Published:
Sustainable Water Resources Management Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

This study focused on analysis of response of stream flow and water availability that may happen due to climate change in the case of Anger sub-basin (8001.28 km2) in the southern part of the Upper Blue Nile River Basin. A single GCM from Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 with single regional climate model and delta change bias correction approaches combined with SWAT hydrological model were used to project stream flow for the developed scenario over the study periods of 2020s and 2080s including the current conditions. The result indicates that inconsistent increasing or decreasing of water availability was observed. The total annual surface water resource potential of Anger sub-basin estimated at the base period according to this study was about 3.396 BCM/year at current situations. However, the future scenarios in 2020s increasing water availability are shown by 2.71% for RCP 4.5 and negligible decrement shown by 0.14% for RCP 8.5 scenarios. As well as decreasing of water resource was shown by 7.43% and 11.3% at 2080s for both RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios, respectively. This is indicative of the likely future response of stream flow of the study area.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5
Fig. 6
Fig. 7

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Abbaspour KC (2015) SWAT-CUP: SWAT Calibration and Uncertainty Programs. https://swat.tamu.edu/media/114860/usermanual_swatcup.pdf. Accessed 11 Jan 2018

  • Abbaspour KC, Vejdani M, Haghighat S, Yang J (2007) SWAT-CUP calibration and uncertainty programs for SWAT. In: International Congress on Modelling and Simulation Society of Australia and New Zealand, pp 1596–1602

  • Arnold JG, Moriasi DN, Gassman PW, Abbaspour KC, White MJ, Srinivasan R, Kannan N (2012) SWAT: model use, calibration, and validation. Trans ASABE 55(4):1491–1508

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Biru Z, Kumar D (2017) Calibration and validation of SWAT model using stream flow and sediment load for Mojo watershed, Ethiopia. Sustain Water Resour Manag, ISSN 2363-5037, pp 1–13. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40899-017-0189-1

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cherie N (2013) Downscaling and modeling the effects of climate change on hydrology and water resources in the upper Blue Nile river basin, Ethiopia Doctoral dissertation. Kassel University, Kassel

  • Critchfield HJ (2002) General climatology, 4th edn. Pearson, New Delhi

    Google Scholar 

  • Cunderlik J (2003) Hydrologic model selection for the CFCAS project: assessment of water resources risk and vulnerability to changing climatic conditions. Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Western Ontario, London

    Google Scholar 

  • Donigian AS, Love JT (2002) The Connecticut Watershed Model—a tool for BMP impact assessment. Proc Water Environ Fed 2002(2):605–624

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Eriksen S, Brien K, Rosetrater L (2008) Climate change in Eastern and Southern Africa: impacts, vulnerability and adaptation. In: Climate change in Eastern and Southern Africa: impacts, vulnerability and adaptation. University of Oslo, Oslo

  • Gebre SL (2012) Evaluation of the potential impacts of climate change on the hydrology and water resources availability of Didessa catchment, Blue Nile River Basin, Ethiopia. Hydrol Curr Res 3:4

    Google Scholar 

  • Giorgi F, Jones C, Asrar GR (2009) Addressing climate information needs at the regional level: the CORDEX framework. World Meteorol Organ (WMO) Bull 58(3):175–183

    Google Scholar 

  • Gupta HV, Sorooshian S, Yapo PO (1999) Status of automatic calibration for hydrologic models: comparison with multilevel expert calibration. J Hydrol Eng. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)1084-0699(1999)4:2(135)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Haile A, Tom R (2015) Evaluation of regional climate model simulations of rainfall over the Upper Blue Nile basin. Atmos Res 161:57–64

    Google Scholar 

  • IPCC (2007a) Impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge

  • IPCC (2007b) Mitigation. Contribution of Working Group III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change

  • Mekonnen D, Girma M, Rao GN (2013) Evaluating potential impact of climate change on hydro-meteorological variables in Upper Blue Nile Basin: a case study of Fincha Sub-Basin. In: International conference on climate change effects

  • Moriasi DN, Arnold JG, Van Liew MW, Bingner RL, Harmel RD, Veith TL (2007) Model evaluation guidelines for systematic quantification of accuracy in watershed simulations. Trans ASABE 50(3):885–900

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • MOWIE (1999) Abbay River Basin Integrated Development Master Plan Project: phase 2 data Collection-site Investigation Survey and Analysis. Ministry of Water Resources, Addis Ababa

    Google Scholar 

  • Nash JE, Sutcliffe JV (1970) River flow forecasting through conceptual models part —a discussion of principles. J Hydrol 10(3):282–290

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Neitsch SL, Arnold JG, Kiniry JR, Williams JR (2005) Soil and Water Assessment Tool Theoretical Documentation: version 2005. Agricultural Research Service, Texas

    Google Scholar 

  • Neitsch SL, Arnold JG, Kiniry JR, Williams JR (2011) Soil and water assessment tool theoretical documentation version, 2009. Texas Water Resources Institute

  • Nicholson SE, Some B, Kone B (2000) An analysis of recent rainfall conditions in West Africa, including the rainy seasons of the 1997 El Nino and the 1998 La Nina years. J Clim 13:2628–2640

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Shawul AA, Alamirew T, Dinka MO (2013) Calibration and validation of SWAT model and estimation of water balance components of Shaya mountainous watershed, Southeastern Ethiopia. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci Discuss 11:13955–13978

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tena B, Rao GS, Abbulu Y (2016) WEAP modeling of surface water resources allocation in Didessa Sub-Basin, West Ethiopia. Sustain Water Resour Manag 2(1):55–70

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Teshager AD, Gassman PW, Secchi S, Schoof JT, Misgna G (2016) Modeling agricultural watersheds with the soil and water assessment tool (swat): calibration and validation with a novel procedure for spatially explicit HRUs. Environ Manag 57(4):894–911

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Teutschbein C, Seibert J (2012) Bias correction of regional climate model simulations for hydrological climate-change impact studies: review and evaluation of different methods. J Hydrol 456:12–29. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2012.05.05

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Trenberth KE, Jones PD, Ambenje P, Bojariu R, Easterling D, Tank AK, Soden B (2007) Observations: surface and atmospheric climate change, Climate Change 2007: the physical science basis, chap. 3. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge World Bank Technical paper, No. 409. World Bank, Washington, DC, pp 235–336

  • Yang J, Reichert P, Abbaspour KC, Xia J, Yang H (2008) Comparing uncertainty analysis techniques for a SWAT application to the Chaohe Basin in China. J Hydrol 358:1–23

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Yihun D (2009) Hydrological modeling to assess climate impact at Gilgel Abay River, Lake Tana Basin-Ethiopia. Thesis. Lund University, Lund

    Google Scholar 

  • Yilma AD, Awulachew SB (2009) Characterization and Atlas of the Blue Nile Basin and its Sub basins. International Water Management Institute, Colombo

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Institute of Technology, Ambo University, P.O. Box 19, Ambo, Oromia Regional State, Ethiopia

    Geremew Fekadu Boru

  2. School of Civil Engineering and Architecture, Adama Science and Technology University, P.O. Box 1888, Adama, Ethiopia

    Zelalem Biru Gonfa

  3. Melkasa Agricultural Research Center, Ethiopian Institute of Agricultural Research, P. O. Box 436, Adama, Ethiopia

    Girma Mamo Diga

Authors
  1. Geremew Fekadu Boru
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Zelalem Biru Gonfa
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Girma Mamo Diga
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Geremew Fekadu Boru.

Additional information

Publisher's Note

Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Boru, G.F., Gonfa, Z.B. & Diga, G.M. Impacts of climate change on stream flow and water availability in Anger sub-basin, Nile Basin of Ethiopia. Sustain. Water Resour. Manag. 5, 1755–1764 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s40899-019-00327-0

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s40899-019-00327-0

Keywords

Search

Navigation