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An evaluation of Delta and SDSM Downscaling Models for simulating and forecasting of average wind velocity in Sistan, Iran

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Abstract

In this study, in order to downscaling the wind speed variablilitye in Zabol station (as a representative of Sistan region), SDSM and change factor (Delta) models were used and the results of both models were compared with each other. For this purpose, monthly and daily average wind speed data of Zabol station, and average wind speed data of the Coupled Global Climate Model Version 3 (CGCM3) under A1B, A2 and B1 scenarios and Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM2) under RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios for the periods 2039 − 2010, 2069 − 2040 and 2099 − 2070 were used and the output of both models were compared with each other. The results showed that the output of the CGCM3 model under scenario A2 in the Delta model is more conformity with the base period. The output results of CGCM3 and CanESM2 models showed that the average wind speed will increase in the studied periods. The SDSM model under scenarios A1B and A2 predicted an increase in average wind speeds by 2099 of 0.41 and 0.95 m/s, respectively. The Delta model also predicted an average increase in wind speed by 2099 under scenarios A1B, A2 and B1, 0.57, 0.62 and 0.52 m/s, respectively. The results showed that at Zabol station, the Delta model simulated the average wind speed data better than the SDSM model (under scenarios A1B, A2 and B1), but the accuracy of the CanESM2 model is more than other models.

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Notes

  1. - https://sdsm.org.uk/SDSMManual.pdf.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Physical Geography, University of Mohaghegh Ardabili, Ardabil, Iran

    Bromand Salahi

  2. University of Mohaghegh Ardabil, Ardabil, Iran

    Esmaeil Poudineh

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  1. Bromand Salahi
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Correspondence to Bromand Salahi.

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Salahi, B., Poudineh, E. An evaluation of Delta and SDSM Downscaling Models for simulating and forecasting of average wind velocity in Sistan, Iran. Model. Earth Syst. Environ. 8, 4441–4453 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s40808-022-01431-5

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