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Poverty Volatility and Tax Revenue Instability in Developing Countries

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Abstract

This paper complements the relatively few existing studies on the macroeconomic effects of poverty in developing countries, by investigating the effect of poverty volatility on tax revenue instability. The empirical analysis has been conducted using an unbalanced panel dataset of 97 developing countries covering the period of 1980–2017 and primarily the two-step system generalized method of moments estimator. Findings have revealed that least developed countries tend to experience a positive tax revenue instability effect of poverty volatility, while poverty volatility results in lower tax revenue instability in relatively advanced countries. Additionally, poverty volatility dampens the instability of tax revenue when poverty rates are low, and enhances it when countries face a greater extent of external shocks. From a policy perspective, this analysis shows that it would be essential for policymakers to dampen the volatility of poverty rates (notably in countries with high poverty rates) if they were to ensure the stability of tax revenue or reduce its instability, given the adverse effect of tax revenue instability on economic growth.

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Informed Consent Statement

Not applicable.

Data and Code Availability Statement

The data used in this analysis is available online in the public databases, could be obtained upon request. The code used to perform regressions could also be obatined upon request.

Notes

  1. These goals were adopted at the Millennium Summit of the United Nations held at the United Nations headquarters in New York, on 8 September 2000.

  2. The 17 SDGs were adopted by the General Assembly of the United Nations, and contained in the document "Transforming our world: the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development", whose reference number is A/RES/70/1.

  3. These shocks include environmental shocks such as natural disasters, political shocks (instability), as well as external shocks, including fluctuations in commodity prices and export demand, and volatile financial flows.

  4. Nevertheless, Narayan and Lu (2011) have considered whether shocks to ten commodity prices (gold, silver, platinum, copper, aluminium, iron ore, lead, nickel, tin, and zinc) are persistent. They have found that the persistence of shocks applies only to gold, silver, platinum, aluminium, and copper.

  5. See, for example, Ahuja et al. 2017, Álvarez et al. 2018, Brückner and Gradstein 2013, Cariolle et al. 2016, Combes and Guillaumont (2002), Dabla-Norris and Gündüz (2014), Essers (2013), Guillaumont (2009, 2010, 2017), Guillaumont and Wagner (2012), Loayza et al. (2007), Mulder and Bussière (1999), Naoussi and Tripier (2013), and Seth and Ragab (2012).

  6. The negative externalities associated with higher poverty incidence have been highlighted by Galster et al. (2008).

  7. According to studies such as Charron and Lapuente (2010) and Wagner et al. (2009), the institutional and governance quality is closely linked with democracy.

  8. Further information on LDCs, including on the list of these countries is accessible online at: https://www.un.org/ohrlls/content/least-developed-countries.

  9. This number is obtained from the Stata software when constructing Figs. 1 and 2.

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    Sèna Kimm Gnangnon

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Appendix

Appendix

See Tables 6, 7, and 8

Table 6 Definition and source of variables
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Table 7 Descriptive statistics on variables used in the model
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Table 8 List of countries contained in the full sample and the subsample of LDCs
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Gnangnon, S.K. Poverty Volatility and Tax Revenue Instability in Developing Countries. Fudan J. Hum. Soc. Sci. (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s40647-023-00377-x

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