Abstract
Post COVID-19 condition can develop after SARS-CoV‑2 infection and persists for months. Besides its impact on health-related quality of life, post COVID-19 condition may have an impact on participation in work life and could potentially lead to disability claims (DC). Predicting the number of potential DC is challenging.
The purpose of this article is to provide a calculation basis for potential DC arising from post COVID-19 condition during this pandemic. Our projected numbers are based on the current state of medical research and our medical insurance expertise and put into perspective to annual total DC of any cause in Germany for the private sector.
Despite the acceleration of the pandemic in recent months, we expect only a minimal increase by 0.5% in annual total DC due to post COVID-19 condition relative to the previous DC expectation for the German private sector. This minor increase can probably be explained by a lower average morbidity and higher vaccination rate in the insured portfolio than among the total working population.
This paper reflects the COVID-19 situation in Germany, however, the proposed calculation basis of potential disease-specific DC is transferable to other markets and can serve as a blueprint for estimating the impact of future pandemics on life and health insurance business.
Zusammenfassung
Das Post-COVID-19-Syndrom kann sich nach einer SARS-CoV‑2 Infektion ausbilden und Monate anhalten. Neben einer beeinträchtigten Lebensqualität wirkt sich das Post-COVID-19-Syndrom möglicherweise auf die Teilhabe am Arbeitsleben aus und könnte folglich zu Invaliditätsansprüchen führen. Die Einschätzung der Häufigkeit potenzieller Schadensfälle stellt dabei eine Herausforderung dar.
In dieser Arbeit wird eine Berechnungsgrundlage zur Einschätzung potenzieller Invaliditätsansprüche durch das Post-COVID-19 Syndrom konzipiert. Die für die Berechnung verwendeten Zahlen basieren auf einer versicherungsmedizinischen Einordnung des aktuellen Stands der medizinischen Forschung und werden in Relation zur Gesamtzahl der jährlichen Leistungsfälle jeglicher Ursache in der privaten Invaliditätsversicherung gesetzt.
Trotz der Beschleunigung der Pandemie in den letzten Monaten erwarten wir für den deutschen Markt privater Invaliditätsversicherungen nur einen minimalen Anstieg der jährlichen Gesamtzahl an Leistungsanträgen aufgrund des Post-COVID-19 Syndroms. Dieser geringfügige Anstieg um 0,5 % im Vergleich zu den bisherigen Schadenserwartungen lässt sich wahrscheinlich durch eine reduzierte Morbiditätslast und eine höhere Impfquote im Versichertenbestand im Vergleich zur allgemeinen erwerbstätigen Bevölkerung erklären.
Die dargestellte Berechnungsgrundlage bezieht sich auf den deutschen Markt, kann jedoch auch auf andere Märkte übertragen werden und als Blaupause für die Abschätzung der Auswirkungen zukünftiger Pandemien auf das Lebens- und Krankenversicherungsgeschäft dienen.
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Suchy, C., Wiseman, S., Orban, M. et al. Post COVID-19 condition and its potential impact on disability—A proposal for a calculation basis for the disability insurance sector. ZVersWiss 111, 191–208 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12297-022-00526-3
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s12297-022-00526-3