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Can agent-based simulation models replicate organised crime?

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Abstract

The aim of the paper is to discuss the possibility of using complex software agents in a simulation model in order to represent and analyse the dynamics of certain types of criminal systems via Agent Based Modelling (ABM), in particular Extortion Racket Systems (ERSs). It presents a simulation model and the results of a large number of runs to find out under which parameter constellations governing the normative behaviour of the software agents the model replicates the macro observations in a number of provinces in Southern Italy. Finally the simulation model is applied to analysing strategies and their effect on the behaviour of the agents and the system as a whole.

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Notes

  1. An earlier version of the NetLogo version can be found at http://ccl.northwestern.edu/netlogo/models/community/NOERS. The code which is currently used for this paper has some additional features for searching the parameter space and for outputting additional metrics as well for injecting interventions. The mechanisms for the agents are the same as in the published version. The version used in (Nardin et al. 2015) differs from the NetLogo version (which was originally designed as a rapid prototype) in so far as the former uses an event-orientation whereas the latter is period-oriented; besides there are only minor differences.

  2. In earlier runs the range of the input parameters was even wider but it turned out that outside the narrower ranges reported bemow the correlations between input parameters and output metrics decreased substantially. This applies to locality, too, implying that norm invocations from far away (as if transported by the mass media) have no significant additional effect.

  3. The question (Q62) was “Here is a list of qualities which children can be encouraged to learn at home. Which, if any, do you consider to be especially important? Please choose up to five!” In a factor analysis it turned out that “obedience” loads the same factor as “religious faith” with a positive factor loading whereas “independence” and “feeling of responsibility” have a high negative loading on the same factor. This justifies to qualify this factor as a dimension “traditional” — “civic”.

  4. Earlier work with the model (Troitzsch 2015a, b) showed that the input parameter background makes a difference for the two output metrics mainly in the region between -10 and 10, this paper reduces the range of this parameter to this narrower interval.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Universität Koblenz-Landau, Universitätsstraße 1, 56070, Koblenz, Germany

    Klaus G. Troitzsch

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  1. Klaus G. Troitzsch
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Correspondence to Klaus G. Troitzsch.

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Funding:

The research leading to these results has received funding from the European Union Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007–2013) under grant agreement no. 315874 (“Global dynamics of extortion racket systems”).

Ethical approval:

This article does not contain any studies with human participants or animals performed by any of the authors.

Additional information

The research leading to these results has received funding from the European Union Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007–2013) under grant agreement no. 315874 (“Global dynamics of extortion racket systems”). Author declares that he has no conflict of interest.

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Troitzsch, K.G. Can agent-based simulation models replicate organised crime?. Trends Organ Crim 20, 100–119 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12117-016-9298-8

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