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Impacts of intercontinental transport of anthropogenic fine particulate matter on human mortality

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Abstract

Fine particulate matter with diameter of 2.5 μm or less (PM2.5) is associated with premature mortality and can travel long distances, impacting air quality and health on intercontinental scales. We estimate the mortality impacts of 20 % anthropogenic primary PM2.5 and PM2.5 precursor emission reductions in each of four major industrial regions (North America, Europe, East Asia, and South Asia) using an ensemble of global chemical transport model simulations coordinated by the Task Force on Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution and epidemiologically-derived concentration-response functions. We estimate that while 93–97 % of avoided deaths from reducing emissions in all four regions occur within the source region, 3–7 % (11,500; 95 % confidence interval, 8,800–14,200) occur outside the source region from concentrations transported between continents. Approximately 17 and 13 % of global deaths avoided by reducing North America and Europe emissions occur extraregionally, owing to large downwind populations, compared with 4 and 2 % for South and East Asia. The coarse resolution global models used here may underestimate intraregional health benefits occurring on local scales, affecting these relative contributions of extraregional versus intraregional health benefits. Compared with a previous study of 20 % ozone precursor emission reductions, we find that despite greater transport efficiency for ozone, absolute mortality impacts of intercontinental PM2.5 transport are comparable or greater for neighboring source-receptor pairs, due to the stronger effect of PM2.5 on mortality. However, uncertainties in modeling and concentration-response relationships are large for both estimates.

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Acknowledgments

The opinions expressed in this article are the authors’ and do not necessarily represent those of their employers, including the USEPA. Model simulations were performed under the UN ECE Task Force on Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution. H.Y. was supported by the NASA Atmospheric Composition Modeling and Analysis Program administered by R. Eckman. D.B. was supported by the US Department of Energy (BER) at LLNL under contract DE-AC5207NA27344.

Supporting information

A description of the models participating in the ensemble, a map of the four regions used in this analysis, and additional results can be found in the Supporting Information.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. US Environmental Protection Agency, 1200 Pennsylvania Ave NW MC6301A, Washington, DC, 20460, USA

    Susan C. Anenberg

  2. University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, NC, USA

    J. Jason West

  3. University of Maryland, College Park, MD, USA

    Hongbin Yu

  4. NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, USA

    Mian Chin, Huisheng Bian & Thomas Diehl

  5. Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Oslo, Norway

    Michael Schulz

  6. Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, CA, USA

    Dan Bergmann

  7. Swiss Federal Institute of Technology, Zurich, Switzerland

    Isabelle Bey

  8. Universities Space Research Association, Columbia, MD, USA

    Thomas Diehl

  9. Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, Palisades, NY, USA

    Arlene Fiore

  10. Department of Biological and Environmental Engineering, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY, USA

    Peter Hess

  11. Department of Education, University of Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany

    Elina Marmer

  12. University of L’Aquila, L’Aquila, Italy

    Veronica Montanaro

  13. Seoul National University, Seoul, Korea

    Rokjin Park

  14. NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY, USA

    Drew Shindell

  15. Columbia Earth Institute, New York, NY, USA

    Drew Shindell

  16. Research Institute for Applied Mechanics, Kyushu University, Fukuoka, Japan

    Toshihiko Takemura

  17. European Commission, Joint Research Center, Institute for Environment and Sustainability, Ispra, Italy

    Frank Dentener

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  1. Susan C. Anenberg
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Correspondence to Susan C. Anenberg.

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Anenberg, S.C., West, J.J., Yu, H. et al. Impacts of intercontinental transport of anthropogenic fine particulate matter on human mortality. Air Qual Atmos Health 7, 369–379 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11869-014-0248-9

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