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Influencing factors and prediction of net carbon sink in the primary sector of the coastal city in China

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Abstract

To achieve the goal of urban carbon dioxide emission reduction, how to increase carbon sequestration has become a top priority. The biological sink is mainly divided into green carbon sink and blue carbon sink. Coastal cities have two kinds of carbon sinks. There, the study of carbon sinks in coastal cities is the primary choice to cope with climate change. Therefore, this study chooses coastal cities with primary industries including agriculture, fishery, and forestry as the study subjects. The LMDI (Log-Mean Divisia Index) method and multiple regression prediction models were used to explore the low-carbon countermeasures which increase urban net carbon sink from the perspective of influencing factors and future potential. The study found that the average output value of employees in the primary industry is the main driving factor, and the change in the purchasing power of unit carbon sinks and the change in the proportion of employees in the primary industry have inhibited the increase in net carbon sinks. Projections based on the primary industry’s output and afforestation area as independent variables show an overall upward trend in net carbon sinks, reaching 15.70 million tons of net carbon sinks in 2060, offsetting 10–20% of total carbon emissions in the same year. Based on the calculation results, this paper puts forward some corresponding countermeasures to increase carbon sinks. This paper provides a theoretical reference for the low-carbon development of coastal cities in China, and the strategies can be also expanded to other cities with similar resources around the world.

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Data availability

The datasets analyzed during the current study are available in the Statistical Yearbook of China and China Energy Statistical Yearbook repository (http://www.stats.gov.cn).

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Funding

We received financial support from the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 51976020, 71603039). And, the study is supported by the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities, China (DUT21RC(3) 004).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Key Laboratory of Ocean Energy Utilization and Energy Conservation of Ministry of Education, Dalian University of Technology, Dalian, 116024, China

    Nan Li, Xinxin Duan & Hailin Mu

  2. School of Economics and Management, Dalian University of Technology, Dalian, 116024, China

    Hongye Wang & Wenjing Yang

  3. Institute of Carbon Peak and Neutrality, Dalian University of Technology, Dalian, 116024, China

    Hongye Wang & Wenjing Yang

  4. College of Mechanical and Transportation Engineering, China University of Petroleum, Beijing, 102249, China

    Yaodong Li

Authors
  1. Nan Li
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  2. Xinxin Duan
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  3. Hongye Wang
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  4. Hailin Mu
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  5. Yaodong Li
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Contributions

Conceptualization, N.L.; methodology, N.L., H.W., and X.D.; software, X.D.; validation, X.D.; formal analysis, X.D.; data curation, X.D.; writing—original draft preparation, X.D.; writing—review and editing, Z.P., Y.L., and W.Y.; supervision, H.W. All authors have read and agreed to the published version of the manuscript.

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Correspondence to Hongye Wang.

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Li, N., Duan, X., Wang, H. et al. Influencing factors and prediction of net carbon sink in the primary sector of the coastal city in China. Environ Sci Pollut Res 30, 48168–48178 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-023-25709-y

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