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Assessing the effects of rural livelihood transition on non-point source pollution: a coupled ABM–IECM model

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Abstract

Water pollution caused by anthropogenic activities and driven by changes in rural livelihood strategies in an agricultural system has received increasing attention in recent decades. To simulate the effects of rural household livelihood transition on non-point source (NPS) pollution, a model combining an agent-based model (ABM) and an improved export coefficient model (IECM) was developed. The ABM was adopted to simulate the dynamic process of household livelihood transition, and the IECM was employed to estimate the effects of household livelihood transition on NPS pollution. The coupled model was tested in a small catchment in the Dongting Lake region, China. The simulated results reveal that the transition of household livelihood strategies occurred with the changes in the prices of rice, pig, and labor. Thus, the cropping system, land-use intensity, resident population, and number of pigs changed in the small catchment from 2000 to 2014. As a result of these changes, the total nitrogen load discharged into the river initially increased from 6841.0 kg in 2000 to 8446.3 kg in 2004 and then decreased to 6063.9 kg in 2014. Results also suggest that rural living, livestock, paddy field, and precipitation alternately became the main causes of NPS pollution in the small catchment, and the midstream region of the small catchment was the primary area for NPS pollution from 2000 to 2014. Despite some limitations, the coupled model provides an innovative way to simulate the effects of rural household livelihood transition on NPS pollution with the change of socioeconomic factors, and thereby identify the key factors influencing water pollution to provide valuable suggestions on how agricultural environmental risks can be reduced through the regulation of the behaviors of farming households in the future.

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Acknowledgements

We gratefully acknowledge the funding support for this study from the National Nature Science Foundation of China (41130526).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Land Resources Management, China Agricultural University, Beijing, 100193, China

    Chengcheng Yuan, Liming Liu, Jinwei Ye, Guoping Ren & Dong Zhuo

  2. School of Government, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, 510275, China

    Xiaoxing Qi

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  1. Chengcheng Yuan
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  2. Liming Liu
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Responsible editor: Marcus Schulz

Highlights:

(1) A coupled model combining an agent-based model and an improved export coefficient model was developed to simulate the effects of rural livelihood transition on non-point source (NPS) pollution at the small catchment scale.

(2) The transitions of rural household livelihood strategies were investigated and simulated from the perspective of a dynamic process.

(3) The connection between the socioeconomic factors and NPS pollution was analyzed, and the effect of the heterogeneity of farmer’s behavior on NPS pollution was studied.

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Yuan, C., Liu, L., Ye, J. et al. Assessing the effects of rural livelihood transition on non-point source pollution: a coupled ABM–IECM model. Environ Sci Pollut Res 24, 12899–12917 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-017-8812-0

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