Skip to main content
Log in

A grid-based assessment of global water scarcity including virtual water trading

  • original article
  • Published:
Water Resources Management Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

A 0.5-degree grid-based assessment of the scarcity of global water resources including virtual water trading has been made. The three components of water availability considered for each grid were local runoff, routed flow from upstream and virtual water trading. Several assumptions were postulated to convert country-base estimations of virtual water trading to grid values. The results show that unequal spatial distribution of global water resources had been considerably neutralized by virtual water trading. A large proportion of people in the Middle-East, North-Africa and Sub-Sahara region are able to relieve their water stress through virtual water import. The paper also reports two hypothetical scenarios with extremes of natural flow availability based on the presence and absence of routed upstream flow.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Alcamo J, Doll P, Heinrichs T, Kaspar F, Lehner B, Rosch T, Siebert S (2003) Global estimates of water withdrawals and availability under current and future business-as-usual conditions. Hydrol Sci J 48:339–348

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Allan JA (1998) Moving water to satisfy uneven global needs: trading water as an alternative to engineering it. ICID J 47(2):1–8

    Google Scholar 

  • Allan JA (2003) Virtual water — the water, food, and trade nexus: useful concept or misleading metaphor? Water Int 28(1):106–113

    Google Scholar 

  • Allan JA (1998) Virtual water: a strategic resource. Global solutions to regional deficits. Ground Water 36(4):545–546

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Allan JA (2002) The Middle East Water Question: Hydropolitics and the Global Economy. L.B. Tauris Publishers, London

    Google Scholar 

  • Arnell NW (1999a) A simple water balance model for the simulation of streamflow over a large geographic domain. J Hydrol 217:314–335

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Arnell NW (1999b) Climate change and global water resources. Global Environmental Change 9:31–49

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Arnell NW (2004) Climate change and global water resources: SRES emissions and socio-economic scenarios. Global Environmental Change 14:31–52

  • Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN) (2000) Columbia University; International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI); and World Resources Institute (WRI) (2000) Gridded Population of the World (GPW) Version 2. CIESIN, Columbia University, Palisades, NY, available at http://sedac.ciesin.columbia.edu/plue/gpw

  • Dickinson RE, Henderson-Sellers A, Kennedy PJ, Wilson MF (1986) Biosphere — atmosphere transfer scheme (BATS) for the NCAR community climate model. Tech. Report no. TN275+STR, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado, USA

  • Dickinson RE, Shaikh M, Bryant R, Graumlich L (1998) Interactive canopies for a climate model. J Climate 11:2823–2836

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dirmeyer PA, Gao X, Zhao M, Guo Z, Oki T, Hanasaki N (2006) GSWP2 multimodel analysis and implications for our perception of the land surface. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 87(10):1381–1397

    Google Scholar 

  • Döll P, Frank K, Bernhard L (2003) A global hydrological model for deriving water availability indicators: model tuning and validation. J Hydrol 270:105–134

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • El Fadel M, Maroun R (2003) The concept of ‘virtual water’ and its applicability in Lebanon. In: Hoekstra AY (ed) VirtualWater Trade: Proceedings of the International Expert Meeting on VirtualWater Trade, Research Report Series No 12. IHE Delft, The Netherlands

  • FAO (2004) Online AQUASTAT 2000 database

  • Falkenmark M, Lundquist J, Widstrand C (1989) Macro-scale water scarcity requires micro-scale approaches: aspects of vulnerability in semi-arid development. Natural Resources Forum 13:258–267

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hakimain H (2003) Water scarcity and food imports: an empirical investigation of the “virtual water” hypothesis in the MENA region. Review of Middle East Economics and Finance 1(1):71–85

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hoekstra AY, Hung PQ (2002) Virtual Water Trade: A Quantification of Virtual Water Flows between Nations in relation to International Crop Trade, Value of Water. Research Report Series 11, IHE Delft, The Netherlands

  • Hoekstra AY, Hung PQ (2004) Globalisation of water resources: international virtual water flows in relation to crop trade. Global Environmental Change Part A 15(1):45–56

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kulshreshtha SN (1993) World Water Resources and Regional Vulnerability: Impact of future Changes, IIASA Research Report RR-93-010, June 1993, pp 137

  • Okada Y (2000) Simulating discharge of major rivers in the world through development of a global river channel network at 0.5 resolution. Master's thesis, University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan

  • Oki T, Agata Y, Kanae S, Saruhashi T, Yang D, Musiake K (2001) Global assessment of current water resources using total runoff integrating pathways. Hydrol. Sci. J. 46:983–996

    Google Scholar 

  • Oki T, Sud YC (1998) Design of Total Runoff Integrating Pathways (TRIP) — A global river channel network. Earth Interactions 2 (http://EarthInteractions.org)

  • Oki T, Nishimura T, Dirmeyer P (1999) Assessment of land surface models by runoff in major river basins of the globe using Total Runoff Integrating Pathways (TRIP). J Met Soc Jpn 77:235–255

    Google Scholar 

  • Oki T, Sato M, Kawamura A, Miyake M, Kanae S, Musiake K (2003) Virtual water trade to Japan and in the world. In: Hoekstra AY (ed) Virtual Water Trade: Proceedings of the International Expert Meeting on Virtual Water Trade, Research Report Series No. 12. IHE Delft, The Netherlands

  • Ozcan KM (2003) Basic food consumption in Turkey: effects of income, price and family size in Urban areas, occasional paper available at http://www.bilkent.edu.trkivilcim/foodpaper.pdf

  • Nijssen B, Greg M, O'Donnell AF, Dennis P (2001) Hydrological sensitivity of global rivers to climate change. Climatic Change 50:143–175

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Parveen S, Faisal IM (2004) Trading virtual water between Bangladesh and India: a Politico — economic dilemma. Water Policy 6:1–10

    Google Scholar 

  • Raskin P, Gleick P, Kirshen P, Pontius G, Strzepek K (1997) Comprehensive Assessment of the Freshwater Resources of the World. Stockholm Environment Institute, Stockholm

    Google Scholar 

  • Regmi A, Dyck J (2001) Effects of urbanization on global food demand changing structure of global food consumption and trade. In: Regmi A (ed) Market and Trade Economics Division, Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Agriculture and Trade Report, WRS-01-1.

  • Revenga C, Brunner J, Henninger N, Kassem K, Payne N (2000) Pilot analysis of global ecosystems: freshwater ecosystems. World Resources Institute and Worldwatch Institute, Washington, DC

    Google Scholar 

  • Sellers PJ, Mintz Y, Sud YC, Dalcher A (1986) A simple biosphere model (SiB) for use within general circulation models. J Atmos Sci 43:505–531

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sellers PJ, Randall DA, Collatz GJ, Berry JA, Field CB, Dazlich DA, Zhang C, Collelo GD, Bounoua L (1996) A revised land surface parameterization (SiB2) for atmospheric GCMs. Part I: model formulation. J Climate 9:676–705

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Turton AR (1999) Precipitation, people, pipelines and power: towards a ‘virtual water’ based political ecology discourse. MEWREW Occasional Paper No. 11, Available at http://www.soas.ac.uk/waterissues/occasionalpapers/OCC11.PDF

  • Vorosmartsy C, Green P, Salisbury J, Lammers R (2000) Global water resources: vulnerability from climate change and population growth. Science 289:284–288

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wichelns D (2001) The role of ‘virtual water’ in efforts to achieve food security and other national goals, with an example from Egypt. Agric Water Manage 49:131–151

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Yang H, Zehnder AJB (2002) Water scarcity and food import: a case study for Southern Mediterranean Countries. World Development 30(8):1413–1430

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Yang H, Zehnder A (2001) China's regional water scarcity and implications for grain supply and trade. Environ Plan A 33:79–95

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Yegnes-Botzer A (2001) Virtual water export from Israel: quantities, driving forces and consequences. M.Sc. Thesis, DEW 166, IHE, Delft, The Netherlands

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Md. Sirajul Islam.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Islam, M.S., Oki, T., Kanae, S. et al. A grid-based assessment of global water scarcity including virtual water trading. Water Resour Manage 21, 19–33 (2007). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-006-9038-y

Download citation

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-006-9038-y

Keywords

Navigation