Abstract
Climate change poses a challenge to the management of marine ecosystems and fisheries. Estuarine ecosystems in particular are exposed to a broad range of environmental changes caused by the effects of climate change both on land and in the ocean, and such ecosystems have also had a long history of human disturbance from over-exploitation and habitat changes. In this study, we examine the effects of climate change and fishing on the Pearl River Estuary (PRE) ecosystem using Ecopath with Ecosim. Our results show that changes in net primary production and ocean warming are the dominant climatic factors impacting biomass and fisheries productivity in the PRE. Additionally, physiological changes of fishes and invertebrates that are induced by climate change were projected to be modified by trophic interactions. Overall, our study suggests that the combined effects of climate change and fishing will reduce the potential fisheries catches in the PRE. Reducing fishing efforts can reduce the impacts of climate change on selected functional groups; however, some prey fishes are expected to experience higher predation mortality and consequently decreases in biomass under low fishing intensity scenarios. Thus, our study highlights the non-linearity of the responses of estuarine ecosystems when climate change interacts with other human stressors.
Graphic abstract
In this study, the whole-ecosystem model (Ecopath with Ecosim) is used to examine the effects of climate change and fishing on a highly developed estuarine ecosystem (Pearl River Estuary, PRE) in the subtropical western Pacific. The oceans variables are extracted from the global earth system model (GFDL ESM2M), including changes in sea surface temperature (SST), hydrogen ion concentration (pH), dissolved oxygen (DO) concentration and net primary production (NPP) under the two scenarios RCP2.6 and RCP8.5. We developed a EwE model of the PRE ecosystem and simulated the effects of changing ocean conditions under alternative climate change scenarios as well as three fishing scenarios on the biodiversity and fisheries productivity of the PRE.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Ahrens RNM, Walters CJ, Christensen V (2012) Foraging arena theory. Fish Fish 13:41–59
Ainsworth CH, Pitcher TJ (2006) Modifying Kempton's species diversity index for use with ecosystem simulation models. Ecol Ind 6:623–630
Ainsworth CH, Samhouri JF, Busch DS, Cheung WWL, Dunne J, Okey TA (2011) Potential impacts of climate change on Northeast Pacific marine foodwebs and fisheries. ICES J Mar Sci 68:1217–1229
Alava JJ, Cisneros-Montemayor AM, Sumaila UR, Cheung WWL (2018) Projected amplification of food web bioaccumulation of MeHg and PCBs under climate change in the Northeastern Pacific. Sci Rep 8:13460
Asch RG, Pilcher DJ, Rivero-Calle S, Holding JM (2016) Demystifying models: answers to ten common questions that ecologists have about Earth system models. Limnol Oceanogr Bull 3:65–70
Brander KM (2007) Global fish production and climate change. Proc Natl Acad Sci 104:19709–19714
Breitburg D, Levin LA, Oschlies A, Gregoire M, Chavez FP, Conley DJ, Garcon V et al (2018) Declining oxygen in the global ocean and coastal waters. Science 359:eaam7240
Brown CJ, Fulton EA, Hobday AJ, Matear RJ, Possingham HP, Bulman C, Christensen V et al (2010) Effects of climate-driven primary production change on marine food webs: implications for fisheries and conservation. Glob Chang Biol 16:1194–1212
Buchary E, Pitcher T, Cheung W, Hutton T (2002) New ecopath models of the Hong Kong marine ecosystem. Spatial Simulations of Hong Kong’s Marine Ecosystem. Fish Centre Res Rep (This and all other Fisheries Centre research Reports cited therein can be freely downloaded from: https://www.fisheries.ubc.ca/publications/reports/fcrr.php) 10: 6–16
Cheung WW (2007) Vulnerability of marine fishes to fishing: from global overview to the Northern South China Sea. University of British Columbia, Vancouver
Cheung WWL, Dunne J, Sarmiento JL, Pauly D (2011) Integrating ecophysiology and plankton dynamics into projected maximum fisheries catch potential under climate change in the Northeast Atlantic. ICES J Mar Sci 68:1008–1018
Cheung WW, Watson R, Pauly D (2013) Signature of ocean warming in global fisheries catch. Nature 497:365–368
Cheung WWL, Brodeur RD, Okey TA, Pauly D (2015) Projecting future changes in distributions of pelagic fish species of Northeast Pacific shelf seas. Prog Oceanogr 130:19–31
Cheung WWL, Reygondeau G, Froicher TL (2016) Large benefits to marine fisheries of meeting the 1.5 degrees C global warming target. Science 354:1591–1594
Cheung WWL, Jones MC, Reygondeau G, Frolicher TL (2018) Opportunities for climate-risk reduction through effective fisheries management. Glob Chang Biol 24:5149–5163
Christensen V, Walters CJ (2004) Ecopath with Ecosim: methods, capabilities and limitations. Ecol Model 172:109–139
Christensen V, Walters CJ, Pauly D (2005) Ecopath with Ecosim: a user’s guide. Fisheries Centre, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, p 154
Cornwall CE, Eddy TD (2015) Effects of near-future ocean acidification, fishing, and marine protection on a temperate coastal ecosystem. Conserv Biol 29:207–215
Darling ES, Cote IM (2008) Quantifying the evidence for ecological synergies. Ecol Lett 11:1278–1286
Doney SC, Ruckelshaus M, Duffy JE, Barry JP, Chan F, English CA, Galindo HM et al (2012) Climate change impacts on marine ecosystems. Ann Rev Mar Sci 4:11–37
Duan L (2009) Ecological modeling study on the fishery and coastal ecosystem in the Pearl River Estuary based on EwE. Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, Guangzhou, p 106
Duan L, Li S, Liu Y, Jiang T, Failler P (2009a) A trophic model of the Pearl River Delta coastal ecosystem. Ocean Coast Manag 52:359–367
Duan LJ, Li SY, Liu Y, Moreau J, Christensen V (2009b) Modeling changes in the coastal ecosystem of the Pearl River Estuary from 1981 to 1998. Ecol Model 220:2802–2818
Edwards M, Richardson AJ (2004) Impact of climate change on marine pelagic phenology and trophic mismatch. Nature 430:881–884
Engelhard GH, Righton DA, Pinnegar JK (2014) Climate change and fishing: a century of shifting distribution in North Sea cod. Glob Chang Biol 20:2473–2483
Gascuel D, Guénette S, Pauly D (2012) The trophic-level-based ecosystem modelling approach: theoretical overview and practical uses. ICES J Mar Sci 68:1403–1416
Gattuso JP, Magnan A, Bille R, Cheung WW, Howes EL, Joos F, Allemand D et al (2015) OCEANOGRAPHY. Contrasting futures for ocean and society from different anthropogenic CO(2) emissions scenarios. Science 349:aac4722
Hunt GL, McKinnell S (2006) Interplay between top-down, bottom-up, and wasp-waist control in marine ecosystems. Prog Oceanogr 68:115–124
Jackson JB, Kirby MX, Berger WH, Bjorndal KA, Botsford LW, Bourque BJ, Bradbury RH et al (2001) Historical overfishing and the recent collapse of coastal ecosystems. Science 293:629–637
Jia X, Li C, Qiu Y (2005) Survey and evaluation of Guangdong marine fishery resources and the measures for sustainable utilization. Chinese Ocean Press, Beijing (in Chinese)
Ke D, Guan Z, Yu H, Wu S, Han L, Jiang Y (2007) Environmental pollution and study trend in Pearl River Estuary. Mar Environ Sci 26(5):488–491 (in Chinese)
Kirby RR, Beaugrand G, Lindley JA (2009) Synergistic effects of climate and fishing in a marine ecosystem. Ecosystems 12:548–561
Koenigstein S, Mark FC, Gößling-Reisemann S, Reuter H, Poertner H-O (2016) Modelling climate change impacts on marine fish populations: process-based integration of ocean warming, acidification and other environmental drivers. Fish Fish 17:972–1004
Kroeker KJ, Kordas RL, Crim RN, Singh GG (2010) Meta-analysis reveals negative yet variable effects of ocean acidification on marine organisms. Ecol Lett 13:1419–1434
Kroeker KJ, Kordas RL, Crim R, Hendriks IE, Ramajo L, Singh GS, Duarte CM et al (2013) Impacts of ocean acidification on marine organisms: quantifying sensitivities and interaction with warming. Glob Chang Biol 19:1884–1896
McOwen CJ, Cheung WWL, Rykaczewski RR, Watson RA, Wood LJ (2015) Is fisheries production within Large Marine Ecosystems determined by bottom-up or top-down forcing? Fish Fish 16:623–632
Melzner F, Gobel S, Langenbuch M, Gutowska MA, Portner HO, Lucassen M (2009) Swimming performance in Atlantic Cod (Gadus morhua) following long-term (4–12 months) acclimation to elevated seawater P(CO2). Aquat Toxicol 92:30–37
Moss R, Babiker W, Brinkman S, Calvo E, Carter T, Edmonds J, Elgizouli I et al (2008) Towards new scenarios for the analysis of emissions: climate change, impacts and response strategies. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Secretariat (IPCC), Noordwijkerhout. http://vuir.vu.edu.au/id/eprint/4819
Perry AL, Low PJ, Ellis JR, Reynolds JD (2005) Climate change and distribution shifts in marine fishes. Science 308:1912–1915
Perry RI, Cury P, Brander K, Jennings S, Möllmann C, Planque B (2010) Sensitivity of marine systems to climate and fishing: concepts, issues and management responses. J Mar Syst 79:427–435
Pitcher TJ, Buchary E, Trujillo P (2002) Spatial simulations of Hong Kong's marine ecosystem: ecological and economic forecasting of marine protected areas with human-made reefs. Fisheries Centre, University of British Columbia, Vancouver
Pörtner HO, Farrell AP (2008) Physiology and climate change. Science 322:690–692
Pörtner HO, Knust R (2007) Climate change affects marine fishes through the oxygen limitation of thermal tolerance. Science 315:95–97
Pörtner H-O, Karl DM, Boyd PW, Cheung W, Lluch-Cota SE, Nojiri Y, Schmidt DN et al (2014) Ocean systems. In: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Secretariat (IPCC) (ed) Climate change 2014: impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability. Part A: global and sectoral aspects. Contribution of working group II to the fifth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp 411–484. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781107415379.011
Qiu YS, Zeng XG, Chen T (2008) Fishery resources and management in the South China Sea. Chinese Ocean Press, Beijing (in Chinese)
Roberts CM, O'Leary BC, McCauley DJ, Cury PM, Duarte CM, Lubchenco J, Pauly D et al (2017) Marine reserves can mitigate and promote adaptation to climate change. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 114:6167–6175
Savo V, Morton C, Lepofsky D (2017) Impacts of climate change for coastal fishers and implications for fisheries. Fish Fish 18:877–899
Schmidtko S, Stramma L, Visbeck M (2017) Decline in global oceanic oxygen content during the past five decades. Nature 542:335–339
Stock CA, Alexander MA, Bond NA, Brander KM, Cheung WWL, Curchitser EN, Delworth TL et al (2011) On the use of IPCC-class models to assess the impact of climate on Living Marine Resources. Prog Oceanogr 88:1–27
Townhill BL, Pinnegar JK, Righton DA, Metcalfe JD (2017) Fisheries, low oxygen and climate change: how much do we really know? J Fish Biol 90:723–750
Vaquer-Sunyer R, Duarte CM (2008) Thresholds of hypoxia for marine biodiversity. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 105:15452–15457
Walters C, Pauly D, Christensen V, Kitchell JF (2000) Representing density dependent consequences of life history strategies in aquatic ecosystems: EcoSim II. Ecosystems 3:70–83
Wang Y, Duan L, Li S, Zeng Z, Failler P (2015) Modeling the effect of the seasonal fishing moratorium on the Pearl River Estuary using ecosystem simulation. Ecol Model 312:406–416
Wang Y, Hu J, Pan H, Li S, Failler P (2016) An integrated model for marine fishery management in the Pearl River Estuary: linking socio-economic systems and ecosystems. Marine Policy 64:135–147
Wu RSS (2002) Hypoxia: from molecular responses to ecosystem responses. Mar Pollut Bull 45:35–45
Zhang H, Li S (2010) Effects of physical and biochemical processes on the dissolved oxygen budget for the Pearl River Estuary during summer. J Mar Syst 79:65–88
Acknowledgements
This work is supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 41306105) and the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities (Grant No. 17lgzd20) and supported by International Program for Ph.D. Candidates, Sun Yat-Sen University. We are grateful to Colette Wabnitz, Oai Li Chen, Vicky Lam, Yajie Liu, Lijie Duan and Shaotian Li, who provided very useful suggestions and comments. W. Cheung acknowledges funding support from the Nippon Founation-UBC Nereus Program and the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding authors
Additional information
Publisher's Note
Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
Electronic supplementary material
Below is the link to the electronic supplementary material.
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Zeng, Z., Cheung, W.W.L., Li, S. et al. Effects of climate change and fishing on the Pearl River Estuary ecosystem and fisheries. Rev Fish Biol Fisheries 29, 861–875 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11160-019-09574-y
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11160-019-09574-y