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Fertility Decline, Gender Composition of Families, and Expectations of Old Age Support

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Abstract

Recent fertility declines in non-Western countries may have the potential to transform gender systems. One pathway for such transformations is the creation of substantial proportions of families with children of only one gender. Such families, particularly those with only daughters, may facilitate greater symmetry between sons and daughters. This article explores whether such shifts may influence gendered expectations of old age support. In keeping with patriarchal family systems, old age support is customarily provided by sons, but not daughters, in India. Using data from the 2005 Indian Human Development Survey, I find that women with sons overwhelmingly expect old age support from a son. By contrast, women with only daughters largely expect support from a daughter or a source besides a child. These findings suggest that fertility decline may place demographic pressure on gendered patterns of old age support and the gender system more broadly.

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Notes

  1. While gender has been largely absent from classic discussions of the first demographic transition, which includes the transition from high to low levels of fertility, the same cannot be said for discussion around the second demographic transition, which includes fluctuations within low levels of fertility (Lesthaeghe 2010; Lesthaeghe and Neidert 2006; McDonald 2000).

  2. It should be noted that the NFHS does provide data on change over time in fertility in India; NFHS-1 was collected in 1992–1993, while the most recent NFHS-3 was collected in 2005–2006. However, this roughly 14-year period is not long enough to show a substantial change in the number of children in families. According to the NFHS, the mean number of children among ever married Indian women fell from 2.65 in 1992–1993 to 2.46 in 2005–2006 (author’s calculations). This decline of 0.19 children is not big enough to demonstrate the potential changes in the gender composition of families. By contrast, the mean number of children among ever married women in 2005–2006 was 2.99 in Uttar Pradesh and 1.93 in Kerala, a difference of 1.06 children.

  3. The adoption of unrelated orphans is rare and stigmatized (Bharadwaj 2003), but the informal adoption of a male family member is acceptable because it keeps inheritance and family ties within the appropriate patriline.

  4. The hypothetical percentages of women that would expect support from a son were calculated by multiplying the predicted probabilities given in Fig. 5 and ESM Fig. 3 by the gender compositions for the high fertility scenario and Kerala, respectively. For example, the estimate of 91 % expecting financial support from a son in the high fertility scenario is provided by the following: (93.72*0.9255) + (3.50*0.9618) + (2.78*0.3389). Similarly, the estimate of 78 % for when the gender composition matches that of Kerala is given by (45.78*0.9255) + (27.80*0.9618) + (26.41*0.3389). These calculations also assume that the population in the high fertility scenario is not practicing son preference and the probability of having a daughter is 0.4886.

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Acknowledgments

Previous versions of this paper were presented at the 2013 Annual Meeting of the Population Association of America in New Orleans and the 2013 “Human Development in India: Evidence from IHDS” Conference in New Delhi. The author would like to thank participants at the IHDS conference for their helpful comments.

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  1. Indiana University, 1020 E. Kirkwood Ave., Ballantine Hall 744, Bloomington, IN, 47405, USA

    Keera Allendorf

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Allendorf, K. Fertility Decline, Gender Composition of Families, and Expectations of Old Age Support. Popul Res Policy Rev 34, 511–539 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11113-014-9354-5

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