Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

Population Projections by Age for Florida and its Counties: Assessing Accuracy and the Impact of Adjustments

  • Published:
Population Research and Policy Review Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

Projections of total population have been evaluated extensively, but few studies have investigated the performance of projections by age. Of those that did, most focused on projections for countries or other large areas. In this article, we evaluate projections by age for Florida and its counties, as produced and published between 1996 and 2010 by the Bureau of Economic and Business Research at the University of Florida. We first compare the precision and bias of projections of total population with the precision and bias of projections by age, at both the state and county levels. This is followed by a more detailed examination of county-level projection errors for individual age groups, first in the aggregate and then disaggregated by sex and population size. The second part of the analysis focuses on a number of adjustments that were implemented in projections published in 2006 and 2009. Intended to improve accuracy, these adjustments involved updates to the base population, fertility rates, and survival rates. We compare the accuracy of projections incorporating these adjustments with the accuracy of projections excluding them. We believe this study offers a unique opportunity to examine a variety of characteristics regarding the forecast accuracy of small-area population projections by age.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5
Fig. 6

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Bloom, D. E., Canning, D., Fink, G., & Finlay, J. E. (2007). Does age structure forecast economic growth? International Journal of Forecasting, 23, 569–585.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Blumstein, A., Cohen, J., & Miller, H. D. (1980). Demographically disaggregated projections of prison populations. Journal of Criminal Justice, 8, 1–26.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bongaarts, J., & Bulatao, R. A. (Eds.). (2000). Beyond six billion. Washington, DC: National Academy Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Carey, K. D. (2011). School district master planning: A practical guide to demographics and facilities planning. Lanham, MD: Rowman & Littlefield Education.

    Google Scholar 

  • Chung, R. Y., Tin, K. Y. K., Cowling, B. J., Chan, K. P., Chan, W. M., Lo, S. V., et al. (2009). Long-term care cost drivers and expenditure projection to 2036 in Hong Kong. BMC Health Services Research, 2009(9), 172.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Costa-Font, J., Wittenberg, R., Patxot, C., Comas-Herrera, A., Gori, C., di Maio, A., et al. (2008). Projecting long-term care expenditure in four European Union member states: The influence of demographic scenarios. Social Indicator Research, 86, 303–321.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • de la Croix, D., Lindh, T., & Malmberg, B. (2009). Demographic change and economic growth in Sweden: 1750–2050. Journal of Macroeconomics, 31, 132–148.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Fullerton, H. N, Jr. (2003). Evaluating the BLS labor force projections to 2000. Monthly Labor Review, 126(10), 3–12.

    Google Scholar 

  • Greinacher, A., Fendrich, K., Brzenska, R., Kiefel, V., & Hoffmann, W. (2011). Implications of demographics on future blood supply: A population-based cross-sectional study. Transfusion, 51, 702–709.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Guralnik, J. M., Yanagishita, M., & Schneider, E. L. (1988). Projecting the older population of the United States: Lessons from the past and prospects for the future. The Milbank Quarterly, 66(2), 283–308.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hamilton, C. H., & Perry, J. (1962). A short method for projecting population by age from one decennial census to another. Social Forces, 41(2), 163–170.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hansen, H. S. (2010). Small-area population projections—A key element in knowledge based e-governance. In K. N. Andersen, E. Francesconi, Å. Grönlund, & T. M. van Engers (Eds.), Electronic government and the information systems perspective. Lecture notes in computer science (Vol. 6267, pp. 32–46). Berlin: Springer.

    Chapter  Google Scholar 

  • Harding, A., Vidyattama, Y., & Tanton, R. (2011). Demographic change and the needs-based planning of government services: Projecting small area populations using spatial microsimulation. Journal of Population Research, 28, 203–224.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Isserman, A. M. (1977). The accuracy of population projections for subcounty areas. Journal of the American Institute of Planners, 43(3), 247–259.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Jiang, Q., & Sánchez Barricarte, J. J. (2011). A crime rate forecast and decomposition method. International Journal of Criminology and Sociological Theory, 4(2), 648–656.

    Google Scholar 

  • Keilman, N. (1990). Uncertainty in national population forecasting. Amsterdam: Swets and Zeitlinger.

    Google Scholar 

  • Keilman, N. (1997). Ex-post errors in official population forecasts in industrialized countries. Journal of Official Statistics, 13(3), 245–277.

    Google Scholar 

  • Keilman, N. (2007). UK national population projections in perspective: How successful compared to those in other European countries? Population Trends, 129, 20–30.

    Google Scholar 

  • Keilman, N., & Kucera, T. (1991). The impact of forecasting methodology on the accuracy of national population forecasts: Evidence from the Netherlands and Czechoslovakia. Journal of Forecasting, 10(4), 371–398.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Keyfitz, N. (1981). The limits of population forecasting. Population and Development Review, 7, 579–593.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Khan, H. T. A., & Lutz, W. (2008). How well did past UN population projections anticipate demographic trends in six south-east Asian countries? Asian Population Studies, 4(1), 77–95.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kluge, F. A. (2012). The fiscal impact of population aging in Germany. Public Finance Review, 41(1), 37–63.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kronenberg, T., & Moeller-Uehlken, K. (2008). Demographic change as a challenge for regional infrastructure planning. Paper presented at the 48th Congress of the European Regional Science Association, Liverpool, UK.

  • Lee, R., Tuljapurkar, S., & Edwards, R. D. (2010). Uncertain demographic futures and government budgets in the US. In S. Tuljapurkar, et al. (Eds.), Ageing in advanced industrial states: Riding the age waves. International studies in population 8 (Vol. 3, pp. 79–100). Netherlands: Springer. doi:10.1007/978-90-481-3553-0_4.

    Chapter  Google Scholar 

  • Nowatzki, J., Moller, B., & Demers, A. (2011). Projection of future cancer incidence and new cancer cases in Manitoba, 2006–2025. Chronic Diseases in Canada, 31(2), 71–78.

    Google Scholar 

  • Rayer, S. (2007). Population forecast accuracy: Does the choice of summary measure of error matter? Population Research and Policy Review, 26, 163–184.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rayer, S. (2008). Population forecast errors: A primer for planners. Journal of Planning Education and Research, 27, 417–430.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Schofield, D. J., & Earnest, A. (2006). Demographic change and the future demand for public hospital care in Australia, 2005–2050. Australian Health Review, 30(4), 507–515.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Shaw, C. (2007). Fifty years of United Kingdom national population projections: How accurate have they been? Population Trends, 128, 8–23.

    Google Scholar 

  • Smith, S. K., & Rayer, S. (2004). Population projections by age, sex, race, and Hispanic origin for Florida and its counties, 2003–2030. Florida Population Studies, Bulletin 139. Gainesville, FL: Bureau of Economic and Business Research, University of Florida.

  • Smith, S. K., & Rayer, S. (2006). Population projections by age, sex, race, and Hispanic origin for Florida and its counties, 2005–2030. Florida Population Studies, Bulletin 145. Gainesville, FL: Bureau of Economic and Business Research, University of Florida.

  • Smith, S. K., & Rayer, S. (2009). Population projections by age, sex, race, and Hispanic origin for Florida and its counties, 2008–2030. Florida Population Studies, Bulletin 154. Gainesville, FL: Bureau of Economic and Business Research, University of Florida.

  • Smith, S. K., & Rayer, S. (2010). Population projections by age, sex, race, and Hispanic origin for Florida and its counties, 2009–2030. Florida Population Studies, Bulletin 157. Gainesville, FL: Bureau of Economic and Business Research, University of Florida.

  • Smith, S. K., & Shahidullah, M. (1995). An evaluation of population projection errors for census tracts. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 90, 64–71.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Smith, S. K., & Sincich, T. (1988). Stability over time in the distribution of population forecast errors. Demography, 25, 461–474.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Smith, S. K., & Sincich, T. (1991). An empirical analysis of the effect of length of forecast horizon on population forecast errors. Demography, 28, 261–274.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Smith, S. K., & Sincich, T. (1992). Evaluating the forecast accuracy and bias of alternative population projections for states. International Journal of Forecasting, 8(3), 495–508.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Smith, S. K., & Tayman, J. (2003). An evaluation of population projections by age. Demography, 40(4), 741–757.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Smith, S. K., Tayman, J., & Swanson, D. A. (2013). A practitioner’s guide to state and local population projections: Methodology and analysis. Dordrecht: Springer.

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • Statistics New Zealand. (2008). How accurate are population projections? An evaluation of Statistics New Zealand population projections, 1991–2006. Wellington: Statistics New Zealand.

    Google Scholar 

  • Stoto, M. (1983). The accuracy of population projections. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 78, 13–20.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Swanson, D. A., Tayman, J., & Bryan, T. M. (2011). MAPE-R: A rescaled measure of accuracy for cross-sectional subnational population forecasts. Journal of Population Research, 28, 225–243.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sweeney, S. H., & Middleton, E. J. (2005). Multiregional cohort enrolment projections: Matching methods to enrolment policies. Population Space and Place, 11, 361–379.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tayman, J., Parrott, B., & Carter, L. (1998). The role of population size in the determination and prediction of population forecast errors: An evaluation using confidence intervals for subcounty areas. Population Research and Policy Review, 17, 1–20.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tayman, J., Swanson, D. A., & Barr, C. F. (1999). In search of the ideal measure of accuracy for subnational demographic forecasts. Population Research and Policy Review, 18, 387–409.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wilson, T. (2007). The forecast accuracy of Australian Bureau of Statistics national population projections. Journal of Population Research, 24(1), 91–117.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wilson, T. (2012). Forecast accuracy and uncertainty of Australian Bureau of Statistics state and territory population projections. International Journal of Population Research, 2012, 16.

  • Wyatt, I. D. (2010). Evaluating the 1996–2006 employment projections. Monthly Labor Review, 133, 33–69.

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. University of Florida, PO Box 117148, Gainesville, FL, 32611-7148, USA

    Stefan Rayer & Stanley K. Smith

Authors
  1. Stefan Rayer
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Stanley K. Smith
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Stefan Rayer.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Rayer, S., Smith, S.K. Population Projections by Age for Florida and its Counties: Assessing Accuracy and the Impact of Adjustments. Popul Res Policy Rev 33, 747–770 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11113-014-9325-x

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11113-014-9325-x

Keywords

Search

Navigation