Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

Semeru volcano, Indonesia: measuring hazard, exposure and response of densely populated neighbourhoods facing persistent volcanic threats

  • Original Paper
  • Published:
Natural Hazards Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

We studied Semeru, East Java, Indonesia, to show the population exposure to volcanic threats from its persistent, daily eruptive activity which endangers at least 50,000 of the 950,000 inhabitants living on the East, South and South-East slopes and ring plain. Surveys, mapping and statistical investigation enabled us to assess the extent of exposure of 145 neighbourhoods (termed blocks) and characterize hazards and response to eruptions in 15 rural villages and small towns. Statistical analyses of datasets of 23 variables (11 of exposure, 7 of hazards, and 5 of response) and their attributes involved three operations: 1. Univariate and bivariate analyses enabled us to explore data and characterize the relationships between 11 variables to compute a multi-component exposure index. 2. Polytomous Logistic Regression (PLR) models selected six optimal exposure variables, suggesting that logistic regression can predict the exposure index for blocks outside the survey area and potentially on any active volcano. 3. Multivariate analyses and Hierarchical Agglomerative Clustering (HAC) distinguished four groups of blocks based on attributes of all variables correlated with the exposure index score. To contribute to disaster risk reduction, the distance/time criterion was applied to access ways and response facilities to highlight remote or blocked blocks in danger of imminent eruption including evacuation. Statistical analysis of optimal variables from local scale surveys can help identify neighbourhoods where disaster risk mitigation requires improvement.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5
Fig. 6
Fig. 7
Fig. 8
Fig. 9

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Abdi H, Valentin D (2007) Multiple Correspondence Analysis. In: Salkind N (ed) Encyclopedia of Measurement and Statistics. Sage, Thousand Oaks (CA)

    Google Scholar 

  • Akaike H (1987) Factor analysis and AIC. Psychometrika 52:317–332

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Aspinall W, Blong J (2015) Volcanic risk assessment, Chapter 70. In: Sigurdsson H et al (eds) Encyclopedia of Volcanoes, 2nd edn. Academic Press, London, pp 1215–1231

    Chapter  Google Scholar 

  • Aspinall W, Auker M, Hincks T, Mahony S, Nadim F, Pooley J, Syre E (2011) Volcano hazard and exposure in GFDRR priority countries and risk mitigation measures-GFDRR Volcano Risk Study. Bristol University Cabot Institute and NGI Norway for the World Bank, NGI Report 20100806:3

    Google Scholar 

  • Auker MR, Sparks RSJ, Siebert L, Crosweller HS, Hewert J (2013) A statistical analysis of the global historical volcanic fatalities record. J Appl Volcanol 2(2):1–24

    Google Scholar 

  • Auker MR, Sparks RSJ, Jenkins SF, Aspinall W, Brown SK, Deligne NI, Jolly G, Loughlin SC, Marzocchi W, Newhall CG, Palma JL (2015) Development of a new global Volcanic Hazard Index (VHI). In: Loughlin SC et al (eds) Global volcanic hazards and risk. Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, pp 349–357

    Chapter  Google Scholar 

  • Bakkour D, Kast R, Enjolras G, Thouret J-C (2015) The adaptive governance of natural disasters: insights from the 2010 Mount Merapi Eruption in Indonesia. Int J Dis Risk Red 13:167–188. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2015.05.006

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Barclay J, Few R, Armijos MT, Phillips JC, Pyle DM, Hicks A, Brown SK, Robertson REA (2019) Livelihoods, wellbeing and the risk to life during volcanic eruptions. Front Earth Sci 7:205. https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2019.00205

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Benzécri J-P (1979) Sur le calcul des taux d’inertie dans l’analyse d’un questionnaire. Les Cahiers De L’analyse Des Données 4(3):377–378

    Google Scholar 

  • BPS Badan Pusat Statistik, Indonesia (2017) Tinjauan Regional Berdasarkan PDRB Kabupaten/Kota 2015–2019; Buku 2: Jawa and Bali, Jakarta

  • BPS, Badan Pusat Statistik, Indonesia (2021) Berita Resmi Statistik : Sensus Penduduk 2020 No. 07/01/35/th. XIX, 21 Januari 2021: Jumlah penduduk Jawa Timur Hasil Sensus Penduduk 2020 (SP2020) sebesar 40.67 juta orang. Badan Pusat Statistik Indonesia. https://jatim.bps.go.id/pressrelease/2021/01/21/1224/jumlah-penduduk-jawa-timur-hasil-sensus-pendudulk-2020-sp2020-sebesar-40.67-juta-orang.html. Accessed 22 Feb 2023

  • BPS, Badan Pusat Statistik, Provinsi Jawa Timur (2022) Indeks Pembangunan Manusia (IPM) Jawa Timur » published by the Berita Resmi Statistik no.721/11/35/Thn XX, 15 November 2022

  • Bronto S, Hamidi S, Martono A (1996) Disaster-prone zone map of Semeru volcano, East Java (1:50,000 scale, colour). Direktorat Vulkanologi, Volc Survey Indonesia, Bandung

  • Brown SK, Auker MR, Sparks RSJ (2015a) Populations around Holocene volcanoes and development of a Population Exposure Index. In: Loughlin S et al (eds) Global volcanic hazards and risk. Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, pp 223–232

    Chapter  Google Scholar 

  • Brown SK, Loughlin SC, Sparks RSJ, Vye-Brown C, Barclay J, Calder E, Cottrell E, Jolly G, Komorowksi J-C, Mandeville C, Newhall C, Palma J, Potter S, Valentine G (2015b) Global volcanic hazard and risk. In: Loughlin SC et al (eds) Global volcanic hazards and risk. Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, pp 81–172

    Chapter  Google Scholar 

  • Brown SK, Jenkins SF, Sparks RSJ, Odbert H, Auker MR (2017) Volcanic fatalities database: analysis of volcanic threat with distance and victim classification. J Appl Volcanol 6:15

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chambers JM, Cleveland WS, Kleiner B, Tukey PA (2018) Graphical methods for data analysis. Chapman and Hall/CRC, Boca Raton

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • Covey J, Horwell CJ, Ogawa R, Baba T, Nishimura S, Hagino M, Merli C (2020) Community perceptions of protective practices to prevent ash exposures around Sakurajima volcano, Japan. Int J Dis Risk Red. 46:101525. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2020.101525

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Del Negro C, Cappello A, Bilotta G, Ganci G, Hérault A, Zago V (2019) Living at the edge of an active volcano: Risk from lava flows on Mt. Etna. Geol Soc Am Bull 132(7–8):1615–1625. https://doi.org/10.1130/B35290.1

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Donovan A, Ayala IA, Eiser J, Sparks RSJ (2018) Risk perception at a persistently active volcano: warnings and trust at Popocatépetl volcano in Mexico, 2012–2014. Bull Volcanol 80(5):47

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Donovan K (2010) Doing social volcanology: exploring volcanic culture in Indonesia. Area 42(1):117–126

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Doocy S, Daniels A, Dooling S, Gorokhovich Y (2013) The human impact of volcanoes: a historical review of events 1900–2009 and systematic literature review. PLOS Curr Disasters. https://doi.org/10.1371/currents.dis.841859091a706efebf8a30f4ed7a1901

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ewert JW, Harpel GJ (2004) In Harm’s way: population and volcanic risk. Geotimes 49:14–17

    Google Scholar 

  • Ewert JW (2007) System for ranking relative threats of U.S. volcanoes. Nat Haz Rev 8:112–124

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ewert JW, Diefenbach AK, Ramsey DW (2018) 2018 update to the US Geological Survey national volcanic threat assessment. US Geol Surv Sci Invest Rep 2018–5140. https://doi.org/10.3133/sir20185140

  • First IAVCEI-GVM Workshop, 2018: “From Volcanic Hazard to Risk Assessment”, Consensual document, 40 p. by Bonadonna, C., Biass, S., Calder, E., Frischknecht, C., Gregg, C., Jenkins, S., Loughlin, S., Menoni, S., Takarada, S., and Wilson, T. Geneva, Switzerland, 27–29 June 2018, https://vhub.org/resources/4498.

  • Freire S, Florczyk AJ, Pesaresi M, Sliuzas R (2019) An improved global analysis of population distribution in proximity to active volcanoes, 1975–2015. ISPRS Inter J Geo-Infor (MDPI) 8:341. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijgi8080341

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gaillard JC (2008) Alternative paradigms of volcanic risk perception: the case of Mt Pinatubo in the Philippines. J Volcanol Geoth Res 172(2008):315–328

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gaillard JC, Dibben CJL (2008) Volcanic risk perception and beyond. J Volcanol Geoth Res 172:163–169

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • GFDRR, Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery of the World Bank (Aspinall et al.) (2011) Volcano Risk Study. Volcano hazard and exposure in GFDRR countries and risk mitigation measures. NGI report 20100806, GFDRR, University of Bristol

  • GVP Global Volcanism Program, 2021. Report on Semeru (Indonesia) by Bennis KL, Venzke E (eds) Pyroclastic flows, incandescent avalanches, n and frequent ash plumes September 2020-February 2021. Bulletin of the Global Volcanism Network, vol 46, no. 04, Smithsonian Institution

  • GVP Global Volcanism Program (2022) Report on Semeru (Indonesia) by Crafford AE, Venzke E (eds) Pyroclastic flows from dome collapse on 4 December 2021 destroyed multiple communities and caused fatalities. Bulletin of the Global Volcanism Network, vol 47, no. 01, Smithsonian Institution

  • Hart G, Peluso NL (2005) Revisiting "Rural" Java: Agrarian Research in the Wake of Reformasi: A Review Essay. Reviewed Work: Good Times and Bad Times in Rural Java by J. Breman, G. Wiradi (Leiden, KITLV Press, 2002). J. Indonesia 80:177–195. Cornell University Press. https://www.jstor.org/stable/3351324

  • Husken F, White B (1989) Java social differentiation, food production, and agrarian control. In: Hart G, Turton A, White B (eds) Agrarian transfomation: local processes and the state in Southeast Asia. ISBN 0520061977, University of California Press, Berkeley, pp 234–265

  • Jenkins SF, Spence RJS, Fonseca J, Solidum RU, Wilson TM (2014) Volcanic risk assessment: Quantifying physical vulnerability in the built environment. J Volc Geoth Res 276:105–120

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Jenkins SF, Wilson TM, Magill CR, Miller V, Stewart C, Marzocchi W, Boulton M (2015) Volcanic ashfall hazard and risk: technical background paper for the UNISDR 2015 global assessment report on disaster risk reduction. A report by Global Volcano Model and IAVCEI, Commonwealth of Australia

  • Jenkins SF, Biass S, Williams GT, Hayes JL, Tennant E, Yang Q, Burgos V, Meredith ES, Lerner GA, Syarifuddin M, Verolino A (2022) Evaluating and ranking Southeast Asia’s exposure to explosive volcanic hazards. Nat Hazards Earth Syst Sci 22(1233–1265):2022. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1233-2022

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Jenks GF (1967) The data model concept in statistical mapping. International Yearbook of Cartography 7:186–190

    Google Scholar 

  • Jiménez D, Becerril L, Carballo A, Baires S, Martí J (2019) Estimating exposure around San Miguel Volcano. El Salvador J Volcanol Geoth Res 106675:9

    Google Scholar 

  • Jóhannesdóttir G, Gísladóttir G (2010) People living under threat of volcanic hazard in southern Iceland: vulnerability and risk perception. Nat Haz Earth Syst Sci 10:407–420

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Jumadi J, Heppenstall A, Malleson NS, Carver SJ, Quincey DJ, Manville VR (2018) Modelling individual evacuation decisions during natural disasters: a case study of volcanic crisis in Merapi, Indonesia. Geosciences MDPI 8(196):30

    Google Scholar 

  • Kassouk Z, Thouret J-C, Solikhin A, Gupta A, Liew SC (2014) Object-oriented classification of very high-resolution panchromatic imagery for geologic mapping of an active volcano: Semeru volcano, Indonesia. Geomorphology 221:18–33. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geomorph.2014.04.022

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kinvig HS, Winson A, Gottsmann J (2010) Analysis of volcanic threat from Nisyros Island, Greece, with implications for aviation and population exposure. Nat Haz Earth Sys Sci 10:1101–1113

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kleinbaum DG, Klein M (2010) Polytomous logistic regression. In: Kleinbaum DG, Klein M (eds) Logistic regression, A self-learning text, Statistics in Biology and Health, 3rd edn. Springer, New York, pp 429–462

    Google Scholar 

  • Kurniawan R, Nasution BI, Agustina N, Yuniarto B (2022) Revisiting social vulnerability analysis in Indonesia Data. Comput Sci Econ Data Brief 40:107743. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.dib.2021.107743

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lavigne F, De Coster B, Juvin N, Flohic F, Gaillard J-C, Texier P, Morin J, Sartohadi J (2008) People’s behavior in face of volcanic hazards: perspectives from Javanese communities, Indonesia. J Volc Geoth Res 172:273–282

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lavigne F, Mei ETW, Morin J, Humaida H, Moatty A, de Bélizal E, Hadmoko DS, Grancher D, Picquout A (2023) Physical environment and human context at Merapi Volcano: A complex balance between accessing livelihoods and coping with volcanic hazards. Chapter 2. In: Gertisser R, Toll VR, Walter TR, Agung Nandaka IGM, Ratdomopurbo A (eds) Merapi Volcano. Springer, Active Volcanoes of the World, pp 45–66

    Chapter  Google Scholar 

  • Lechner HN, Rouleau MD (2019) Should we stay or should we go now? Factors affecting evacuation decisions at Pacaya volcano, Guatemala. Int J Dis Risk Red 40:101160

    Google Scholar 

  • Lerner-Lam A (2007) Assessing global exposure to natural hazards: progress and future trends. Environ Hazards 7:10–19

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Loughlin SC, Sparks S, Brown SK, Jenkins SF, Vye-Brown C (eds) (2015). Cambridge Univ Press, Cambridge, p 391

    Google Scholar 

  • Mangan M, Ball J, Wood N, Jones JL, Peters J, Abdollahian N, Dinitz L, Blankenheim S, Fenton J, Pridmore C, USGS (2018) California’s exposure to volcanic hazards. Scient. Investig. Report 2018–5159, 44 pp + 3 Appendices

  • Malin MC, Sheridan MF (1982) Computer-assisted mapping of pyroclastic surges. Science 217(4560):637–640. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.217.4560.637

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mei ETW, Picquout A, Lavigne F, Grancher D, Noer C, Sartohadi J, De Bélizal E (2013) Lessons learned from the 2010 evacuations at Merapi volcano. J Volc Geoth Res 261:348–365

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Michellier C, Kervyn M, Barette F, Muhindo Syavulisembo A, Kimanuka C, Kulimushi Mataboro S, Hage F, Wolff E, Kervyn F (2020) Evaluating population vulnerability to volcanic risk in a data scarcity context: The case of Goma city, Virunga volcanic province (DR Congo). Int J Dis Risk Red 45:101460

    Google Scholar 

  • Nakada S, Maeno F, Yoshimoto M, Hokanishi N, Shimano T, Zaennudin A, Iguchi M (2019) Eruption scenarios of active volcanoes in Indonesia. J Disas Res 14(1):40–50

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Nasution BI, Kurniawan R, Siagian TH, Fudholi A (2020) Revisiting social vulnerability analysis in Indonesia: An optimized spatial fuzzy clustering approach. Int J Dis Risk Red 51:101801. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2020.101801

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Nieto-Torres A, Freitas Guimarães L, Bonadonna C, Frischknecht C (2021) A new inclusive volcanic risk ranking, Part 1: methodology. Front Earth Sci. https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2021.697451

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Paton D, Smith L, Daly M, Johnston D (2008) Risk perception and volcanic hazard mitigation: individual and social perspectives. J Volcanol Geoth Res 172:179–188

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Shapiro SS, Wilk MB (1965) An analysis of variance test for normality (complete samples). Biometrika 52(3–4):591–611. https://doi.org/10.1093/biomet/52.3-4.591

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Siagian TH, Purhadi P, Suhartono S, Ritonga H (2013) Social vulnerability to natural hazards in Indonesia: driving factors and policy implications. Nat Haz 70(2):1603–1617. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-013-0888-3

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Solikhin A, Thouret J-C, Harris A, Liew SC, Gupta A (2012) Geology, tectonics, and the 2002–2003 eruption of Semeru volcano, Indonesia: interpreted from high-spatial resolution satellite imagery. Geomorph 138:364–372. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geomorph.2011.10.001

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • The Hazards and Vulnerability Research Institute HVRI at the University of Southern Carolina USC. https://start.umd.edu.data-tools/social-vulnerability-index-sovi. Accessed 22 July 2022

  • Thouret JC, Lavigne F, Suwa H, Sukatja B (2007) Volcanic hazards at Mount Semeru, East Java (Indonesia), with emphasis on lahars. Bull Volcanol 70(2):221–244

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Thouret J-C, Ettinger S, Guitton M, Santoni O, Magill C, Martelli K, Zuccaro G, Revilla V, Charca JA, Arguedas A (2014a) Assessing physical vulnerability in large cities exposed to flash floods and debris flows: the case of Arequipa (Peru). Nat Haz 73(3):1771–1815. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-014-1172-x

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Thouret JC, Oehler JF, Gupta A, Solikhin A, Procter JN (2014b) Erosion and aggradation on persistently active volcanoes—A case study from Semeru Volcano. Indonesia Bull Volcanol 76(10):857

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Thouret J-C, Wavelet E, Taillandier M, Tjahjono B, Jenkins S, Azzaoui N, Santoni O (2022) Defining population socio-economic characteristics and adaptive capacity of communities to persistent volcanic threats from Semeru, Indonesia. Int J Dis Risk Reduction. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2022.103064

  • UNDP, United Nations Development Programme (2020) Human Development Report 2020 the Next Frontier: Human Development and the Anthropocene, pp 343–350. ISBN 978-92-1-126442-5

  • UNISDR 2 February 2017. Terminology on Disaster Risk Reduction. Basic definitions on disaster risk reduction to promote a common understanding on the subject for use by the public, authorities and practitioners, https://www.preventionweb.net/files/50683oiewgreportenglish.pdf

  • UNDRR United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction, 2017. Terminology. we/inform/terminology.

  • Wilcoxon F (1945) Individual comparisons by ranking methods. Biometrics Bull 1(6):80–88. https://doi.org/10.2307/3001968

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wild AJ, Bebbington MS, Lindsay JM, Charlton DH (2021) Modelling spatial population exposure and evacuation clearance time for the Auckland Volcanic Field, New Zealand. J Volcanol Geoth Res 416:107282

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wilson G, Wilson TM, Deligne NJ, Cole JV (2014) Volcanic hazard impacts to critical infrastructure: a review. J Volcanol Geoth Res 286:148–182

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wisner B, Blaikie P, Cannon T, Davis I (2004) At risk: natural hazards, people’s vulnerability and disasters, 2nd edn. Routledge, London, p 284

    Google Scholar 

  • Woo G (2015) Cost-Benefit Analysis in Volcanic Risk, Chapter 11. In: Papale P (ed) Volcanic hazards, risks and disasters. Elsevier, pp 289–300

    Chapter  Google Scholar 

  • Wood N, Soulard C (2009) Variations in population exposure and sensitivity to lahar hazards from Mount Rainier, Washington. J Volcanol Geoth Res 188(4):367–378

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Yokoyama I, Tilling R, Scarpa R (1984) International mobile Early-Warning Systems for Volcanic Eruptions and Related Seismic Activities. FP/ 2106-82-01 (2286). UNESCO, Paris

  • Zuccaro G, De Gregorio D, Baxter P (2015) Human and structural vulnerability to volcanic processes, Chapter 10. In: Papale P (ed) Volcanic hazards, risks and disasters. Elsevier, pp 261–288

    Chapter  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgements

Fieldwork and laboratory analyses were funded by the ANR ‘RiskAdapt’ research project. This research was also financed by the French government IDEX-ISITE initiative 16-IDEX-0001 (CAP 20-25). The authors are grateful to DIKTI (Directorate General of Higher Education, Ministry of National Education of Indonesia), who bestowed two research permits to the first author. We acknowledge the technical and scientific support from Dr. A.-F. Yao Lafourcade (Laboratory of Mathematics, UCA), University Gadjah Mada, Yogjakarta (Isna Pujiastuti) and University IPB, Bogor (Muhammed Syaif Habi, F. Muhammed A.W. Hasan). We thank Mr. Mahjum and Pak Sam for their logistical support in field.

Funding

Funding (no specific grant received) has been cited in the Acknowledgments.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Université Clermont-Auvergne, Laboratoire Magmas et Volcans, UMR 6524 CNRS, OPGC et IRD, 63000, Clermont-Ferrand, France

    Jean-Claude Thouret & Emeline Wavelet

  2. Université Clermont-Auvergne UCA, Laboratoire de Mathématiques, UMR 6566, CNRS, Campus les Cézeaux, 63178, Aubière, France

    Marie Taillandier & Nourddine Azzaoui

  3. FERDI & Université Clermont Auvergne, CNRS, IRD, CERDI, 63000, Clermont-Ferrand, France

    Olivier Santoni

  4. Faculty of Agriculture, IPB University, Bogor, Indonesia

    Boedi Tjahjono

Authors
  1. Jean-Claude Thouret
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Marie Taillandier
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Emeline Wavelet
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. Nourddine Azzaoui
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  5. Olivier Santoni
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  6. Boedi Tjahjono
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Contributions

All authors contributed to the study conception and design. Material preparation, data collection and analysis were performed by JC Thouret, M Taillandier, E Wavelet, N Azzaoui, and B Tjajhono. The first draft of the manuscript was written by JC Thouret and M Taillandier, and all authors commented on previous versions of the manuscript. All authors read and approved the final manuscript. Artwork was performed by M Taillandier, E. Wavelet, JC Thouret and O Santoni.

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Jean-Claude Thouret.

Ethics declarations

Competing interests

The authors have no competing interests to declare that are relevant to the content of this article. All authors certify that they have no affiliations with or involvement in any organization or entity with any financial interest or non-financial interest in the subject matter or materials discussed in this manuscript.

Ethics approval

The research did not involve Human participants and/or Animals.

Additional information

Publisher's Note

Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.

Supplementary Information

Below is the link to the electronic supplementary material.

ESD Figure 1

. Maps showing the setting of the 15 dusun together with the blocks in which we conducted field survey and statistical analyses on exposure parameters. A. Karangsuko and Blubuk (Desa Tamansatryan), west flank. B. Town of Pronojiwo, Supit-Supit Timur and Rowobaung (Desa Pronojiwo), South flank. C. Oro-Oro Ombo (Desa and dusun), Sumbersari, Gumuk Mas, Curah Lengkong (Desa Supit Urang), SSE and SE flank. D. Kajar Kuning (Desa Sumberwuluh) and Desa Candipuro, SSE flank. E. Tulungrejo and Jabon (Desa Pasrujambe), ESE flank, and F. Sumbermulyo, Juranglangak, and Rekesan (Desa Senduro), East flank. ESD Figure 2. Scree model with distribution of information according to dimensions. ESD Figure 3. Factor map obtained from HAC showing four groups of blocks based on attribute frequencies: see Table 6 for the list of high and low attribute frequencies. ESD Figure 4. Factor map obtained from distance/timing criteria and HAC (Table 7) and showing four clusters of blocks according to access and response facilities. (PDF 7303 kb)

11069_2023_5910_MOESM2_ESM.pdf

ESD Table 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7 and 8 with bold characters (alike ESD Figure 1, 2 and 3). Setting of surveys carried out in dusun (sub-villages): administrative units, location, surface area, people density, and number of surveys in each dusun. Symbol meaning: * data from BPS reports, Kecamatan Dalam Angka 2019, and 2018 for Tamansatryan, Sumberwuluh, Candipuro. **A dusun usually includes 4 to 5 RukunWarga (RW, a neighbourhood with 50–75 houses). A RW includes usually 3 to 9 RukunTetanga (RT, a block with 20–25 houses). Field survey was carried out at the scale of RWs, including more than one observation per RT. ESD Table 2. Coordinates of buildings, economic status of respondents, and geographical exposure with respect to active valleys. ESD Table 3. Chi-square test on the set of 23 variables to determine whether two variables are independent or dependent. In this case, a variable is independent if the p value exceeds 5% (see Table 5). As a result, a statistical link exists (95% confidence) between variables indicated as dependent with corresponding variables listed in the first column. Dark grey indicates variables of exposure, grey variables of hazards, and white variables of access and response. ESD Table 4. Burt Table of contingency (all attributes are considered) showing statistical links between attributes of two variables at a time. ESD Table 5. Coordinates, squared cosine, and contribution of attributes used in MCA biplots. ESD Table 6. Master Table of computed EIPN per dusun blocks, totalling 145 (horizontal rows; two initials indicate the dusun name) according to all exposure variables and their attributes (vertical rows, see Table 3). A. The colour-coded final scores of the EIPN are displayed at the end of Table as well as in Figure 5. All blocks delineated in Figure 5 A-C and D-F were attributed one of the colour-coded Exposure Index score levels. ESD Table 7. Confusion matrix of the selected PLR model. This Table crosses ‘real’ observed EIPN scores with predicted ones when we applied the model to the initial (observed) data (145 blocks). Grey boxes show well-predicted EIPN values in contrast to yellow boxes indicating poorly predicted EIPN values. ESD Table 8. Chi2 test on discriminant variables that support HAC clusters. ESD Table 9. Chi2 test on variables of timing, access and response that support block clusters for relief operation in case of imminent evacuation. (PDF 827 kb)

Rights and permissions

Springer Nature or its licensor (e.g. a society or other partner) holds exclusive rights to this article under a publishing agreement with the author(s) or other rightsholder(s); author self-archiving of the accepted manuscript version of this article is solely governed by the terms of such publishing agreement and applicable law.

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Thouret, JC., Taillandier, M., Wavelet, E. et al. Semeru volcano, Indonesia: measuring hazard, exposure and response of densely populated neighbourhoods facing persistent volcanic threats. Nat Hazards 117, 1405–1453 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-023-05910-5

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-023-05910-5

Keywords

Search

Navigation